The final Ashes test gets under way later this morning and then I am off on holiday early tomorrow morning so time to get the predictions for this weekend out of the way.
To start with I'll start with the final test of the Ashes series which will be starting at 11.00am this morning at the Oval. If I am being honest I think the match will end up in a draw but most of the last Tests at the Oval have produced a result one way or the other and being a patriot, as well as recognising good odds when I see them, this week I'm going with my heart and going to predict and England win - no better way for Flintoff to bow out of Test cricket.
Later today the World Championships may witness something extraordinary as Usain Bolt goes for his second gold medal in the 200 metres final. Though I said the other day that potentially he can break 19 seconds for this distance I don't think it will be today but I do think he can break the world record and that is my prediction for today. The championships will finish on Sunday and for one of the final events I am predicting that the British women will win a medal in the 4 x 400 metres.
The tri-nations continues on Saturday when Australia host the All Blacks. Dan Carter is back for New Zealand and so though I think it will be a close match I am going for an away win, which will be a first for this year's series.
Another sport returning at the weekend is F1 in Valencia, though with all the publicity it has had in the four weeks since the last race in Hungary you'd never think it had been away. Unfortunately there will be no Schumacher but the Renaults have been re-instated and the other good news is Massa is making good progress in his recovery and could be back before the end of the season. With all the other events surrounding the last race it almost went un-noticed that the McLarens and Hamilton were back on the pace and I am going for another Hamilton win this weekend with Button on the podium - if Button has another poor race then we might have to start writing off his title chances.
The premier league football season has got of to a cracking start (particularly for Spurs supporters like myself) and will be continuing at the weekend. In the sixteen matches played so far this season every London based club has won and there is yet to be a draw. Both of these records will go at the weekend as there are two London derbies and I am confident of at least one draw across the ten matches. My predictions are that Sunderland will beat Blackburn at the Stadium of Light, Birmingham will beat Stoke, West Ham and Tottenham will draw but I expect a few goals in the game and finally Chelsea will keep up their 100% start to the season by winning at Fulham and will therefore be top of the league once the weekend's action has been concluded.
In summary the predictions are below and note I may not be able to update the results for a couple of weeks as not sure of internet access in the sunny south of France:
Ashes Cricket
England to win at 4/1
World Athletics Championships
New world record in the men's 200 metre final at 6/4
GB womens 4 x 400 team to medal in the final at 13/8
Tri-Nations Rugby
All Blacks to beat Australia at 11/10
European Grand Prix in Valencia
Hamilton to win at 3/1
Button to podium at 7/4
Premier League Football
Sunderland to beat Blackburn at 11/10
West Ham to draw with Tottenham at 12/5
Birmingham to beat Stoke at 11/8
Chelsea to beat Fulham at 8/13
Thursday, 20 August 2009
Tuesday, 18 August 2009
Cheats Never Prosper
I remember back in April watching the rugby union European Cup quarter-final between Leinster and Harlequins, and also thinking how convenient it was when Tom Williams the Harlequins winger cut his mouth with a few minutes to go meaning that Quins could bring their previously substituted fly-half back on to the pitch to try and help conjure a win for the London side.
Thankfully for the integrity of the game and the wider sport as a whole, Nick Evans missed his chance to win the game for Harlequins and Leinster were able to go on and beat Munster and Leicester in the semi-finals and finals respectively to win the tournament for the first time at the end of May. Since then there has been an investigation into the whole "blood injury" incident and the initial ruling was that the only individual culpable was the Harlequins winger Williams and he was suspended for twelve months, though the club was also given a significant fine. Thankfully, the authorities running the European Cup believed the outcome was not sufficient and appealed against the ruling because now the whole story has come out and unfortunately it has brought the whole game of rugby union in to disrepute.
What is so shocking is that this had to be regarded as a pre-meditated act and therefore is cheating that has to be bracketed with the likes of drug abuse. More scary is that Harlequins are probably not the only team to have embarked on such dubious methods in order to try and win a game but they are the ones that have been caught.
I have played (and still attempt) senior rugby for the last twenty years, albeit at a level far below the professionals but all the rules that apply at the top of the game are the same for those of us who play at a "junior" level. The rule allowing a player to be temporarily substituted when he has a cut is a sensible one and I believe was bought in when the rise of HIV was hogging the news headlines. At my level it gives a player a chance to get cleaned up, maybe a dab of vaseline or some plaster and then they can get on with the game. At a higher level where they have doctors and other medical specialists on-hand they can insert stitches etc. so more serious wounds can be treated and because of the nature of the game blood injuries are part and parcel of the game.
In every sport individuals and teams will push the rules to the limits and will sometimes deliberately overstep them in order to gain an advantage. In rugby it is normally the back-row players who are often adept at slowing the ball-down or turning it over at break-down situations - Dean Richards the ex. Harlequins Director of Rugby was particularly adept at these dark arts and became a hero for both his club Leicester and England. They also know that if they get caught they will be penalised and recognise constant infringements will be punished by a sin-binning. In most matches this is about as cynical as the game gets.
However, as rugby enters its teenage years of professionalism it is starting to make the news for all the wrong reasons. We have had the drug taking at Bath, this fake blood injury at Harlequins and I fear many teams who are suffering in scrums are saying a prop or hooker is injured so that the scrums go uncontested thereby negating the advantage their opposition has in the set-piece. This is far more difficult to prove but there have been occasions when a front-row player has left the field due to injury, causing uncontested scrums and then there he is starting the match the following week after a miraculous recovery!
If one good thing has come from all this negative publicity it is that at least the rugby authorities have imposed significant penalties on those caught blatantly breaking the rules. Perhaps the one area where they have been weak is in the treatment of proven cases of eye-gouging but there will always be room for improvement somewhere.
It is a shame that someone such as Dean Richards who I always held in high esteem and had much respect for, should be guilty of orchestrating cheating in such a manner but hopefully this will send out a message to any others who think they can engage in dubious tactics that they will be caught. Rugby Union is perhaps the greatest team sport in the world and has some wonderful traditions - the most enduring of which is fair play - and I for one do not want to see these traditions being any further tarnished.
Thankfully for the integrity of the game and the wider sport as a whole, Nick Evans missed his chance to win the game for Harlequins and Leinster were able to go on and beat Munster and Leicester in the semi-finals and finals respectively to win the tournament for the first time at the end of May. Since then there has been an investigation into the whole "blood injury" incident and the initial ruling was that the only individual culpable was the Harlequins winger Williams and he was suspended for twelve months, though the club was also given a significant fine. Thankfully, the authorities running the European Cup believed the outcome was not sufficient and appealed against the ruling because now the whole story has come out and unfortunately it has brought the whole game of rugby union in to disrepute.
What is so shocking is that this had to be regarded as a pre-meditated act and therefore is cheating that has to be bracketed with the likes of drug abuse. More scary is that Harlequins are probably not the only team to have embarked on such dubious methods in order to try and win a game but they are the ones that have been caught.
I have played (and still attempt) senior rugby for the last twenty years, albeit at a level far below the professionals but all the rules that apply at the top of the game are the same for those of us who play at a "junior" level. The rule allowing a player to be temporarily substituted when he has a cut is a sensible one and I believe was bought in when the rise of HIV was hogging the news headlines. At my level it gives a player a chance to get cleaned up, maybe a dab of vaseline or some plaster and then they can get on with the game. At a higher level where they have doctors and other medical specialists on-hand they can insert stitches etc. so more serious wounds can be treated and because of the nature of the game blood injuries are part and parcel of the game.
In every sport individuals and teams will push the rules to the limits and will sometimes deliberately overstep them in order to gain an advantage. In rugby it is normally the back-row players who are often adept at slowing the ball-down or turning it over at break-down situations - Dean Richards the ex. Harlequins Director of Rugby was particularly adept at these dark arts and became a hero for both his club Leicester and England. They also know that if they get caught they will be penalised and recognise constant infringements will be punished by a sin-binning. In most matches this is about as cynical as the game gets.
However, as rugby enters its teenage years of professionalism it is starting to make the news for all the wrong reasons. We have had the drug taking at Bath, this fake blood injury at Harlequins and I fear many teams who are suffering in scrums are saying a prop or hooker is injured so that the scrums go uncontested thereby negating the advantage their opposition has in the set-piece. This is far more difficult to prove but there have been occasions when a front-row player has left the field due to injury, causing uncontested scrums and then there he is starting the match the following week after a miraculous recovery!
If one good thing has come from all this negative publicity it is that at least the rugby authorities have imposed significant penalties on those caught blatantly breaking the rules. Perhaps the one area where they have been weak is in the treatment of proven cases of eye-gouging but there will always be room for improvement somewhere.
It is a shame that someone such as Dean Richards who I always held in high esteem and had much respect for, should be guilty of orchestrating cheating in such a manner but hopefully this will send out a message to any others who think they can engage in dubious tactics that they will be caught. Rugby Union is perhaps the greatest team sport in the world and has some wonderful traditions - the most enduring of which is fair play - and I for one do not want to see these traditions being any further tarnished.
Monday, 17 August 2009
Awesome, Amazing, Dramatic, Exciting....
Many words are often misused to describe what are often fairly mundane sporting happenings, but this weekend's action could not in any sense be said to be mundane. In fact it is almost impossible to know where to start.
The biggest shock was Tiger Woods not winning the US PGA golf at Hazeltine, having led from almost the minute he started his first round on Thursday. Going in to the last round he held a two shot lead from the unheralded and to many unheard of Yang of South Korea but by the time he had completed his round he had dropped three shots whilst Yang gained two meaning for the first time in his career he did not win a major after starting the final day in the lead. Even the greats sometimes show human traits.
Another good performance from the Brits but yet again a case of "close but no cigar" for Westwood and it is now more than 10 years since a British success in a major. One of my predictions was for Poulter to make the top 10 but he was let down by a poor third round meaning he could only finish tied for 19th.
The premiership football season started with a bang on Saturday with the undoubted best performance coming from Arsenal who thrashed Everton, the team that finished one place behind them in last season's league. For me it was great to see Spurs getting off to a composed and winning start against last season's runner's up Liverpool but though the team looks better balanced than it has for years I am not sure they will be challenging for a Champions League place come May 2010. As for my predictions Manchester City had a good win at Blackburn as predicted but Sunderland won at Bolton when I predicted a draw as I had done for the Everton versus Arsenal match.
In cricket my prediction of a Kent versus Northants final was totally wrong as both teams lost their semi-finals, Kent beaten almost single-handedly by the batting of Marcus Trescothick and whilst he started well again in the final once Sussex removed him the rest of the Somerset batting fell apart and the final petered out to an easy win for Sussex.
The tennis in Montreal was won by Britain's Andy Murray and just by reaching the final he has moved up to second in the world rankings though I don't think that is a true reflection until he wins a Grand Slam tournament, though if he can stay there it may potentially help his seeding at the US Open meaning he may not have to play both Federer and Nadal to win.
Valentino Rossi won an enthralling Czech MotoGP in Brno, enthralling at least until his main rival for the Championship and team-mate Jorge Lorenzo fell-off which will have seriously dented his championship chances as he is now 50 points behind Rossi.
Other good news for the English was the return of Jonny Wilkinson for his new French side Toulon where he scored 17 of his team's 22 points in his first game for nearly a year. Let's hope he can stay fit.
Then of course there was the small matter of the World Athletics Championships in Berlin which got underway on Saturday. Jessica Ennis was outstanding in winning the Heptathlon and I for one will be voting for her as Britain's Sports Personality of the Year. To come back from her injury troubles of the last twelve months to dominate the heptathlon from start to finish was brilliant to watch and inspiring for any athletes dreaming of Olympic success in London three years from now.
Following the conclusion of that event was the small matter of the men's 100 metres and the opportunity to see the three fastest men in the world in the same race. The word awesome is the only one I can think of to describe the performance by Usain Bolt who not only beat his world record but destroyed it by running 9.58 seconds from a standing start. It was the greatest demonstration of men's sprinting that has ever been seen and the scary thing is that he can and probably will go faster in this event. Tomorrow, he will embark upon the 200 metres and if he just runs the same time for both halves of the race he will smash his world record but I suspect he could run under 19 seconds for the 200 metres which would be even more outstanding than his 100 metres record.
It is possible that over the last twelve months we have witnessed the emergence of perhaps the greatest athlete of all time and perhaps the greatest sportsman of this generation if not of any. I don't say that lightly when you consider the likes of Roger Federer, Tiger Woods, Valentino Rossi, Michael Phelps, Lance Armstrong and Michael Schumacher amongst others, all of whom are record breakers par excellence but what Bolt is doing in athletics at the age of 22 is truly awesome when you consider he is only in the early stages of his career it is scary to wonder just where his talent could take the record books to.
As for my predictions, I was right with Ennis' win but completely underestimated the talent of Bolt as whilst I thought he'd win I predicted he would not break the world record, yet alone destroy it. Overall, a poor week on the prediction front as only got three right and this means a £3.50 loss for the week meaning I am back to £12.50 down overall since the blog began, but who cares after such a superb few days of sport and more to look forward to over the next week!
The biggest shock was Tiger Woods not winning the US PGA golf at Hazeltine, having led from almost the minute he started his first round on Thursday. Going in to the last round he held a two shot lead from the unheralded and to many unheard of Yang of South Korea but by the time he had completed his round he had dropped three shots whilst Yang gained two meaning for the first time in his career he did not win a major after starting the final day in the lead. Even the greats sometimes show human traits.
Another good performance from the Brits but yet again a case of "close but no cigar" for Westwood and it is now more than 10 years since a British success in a major. One of my predictions was for Poulter to make the top 10 but he was let down by a poor third round meaning he could only finish tied for 19th.
The premiership football season started with a bang on Saturday with the undoubted best performance coming from Arsenal who thrashed Everton, the team that finished one place behind them in last season's league. For me it was great to see Spurs getting off to a composed and winning start against last season's runner's up Liverpool but though the team looks better balanced than it has for years I am not sure they will be challenging for a Champions League place come May 2010. As for my predictions Manchester City had a good win at Blackburn as predicted but Sunderland won at Bolton when I predicted a draw as I had done for the Everton versus Arsenal match.
In cricket my prediction of a Kent versus Northants final was totally wrong as both teams lost their semi-finals, Kent beaten almost single-handedly by the batting of Marcus Trescothick and whilst he started well again in the final once Sussex removed him the rest of the Somerset batting fell apart and the final petered out to an easy win for Sussex.
The tennis in Montreal was won by Britain's Andy Murray and just by reaching the final he has moved up to second in the world rankings though I don't think that is a true reflection until he wins a Grand Slam tournament, though if he can stay there it may potentially help his seeding at the US Open meaning he may not have to play both Federer and Nadal to win.
Valentino Rossi won an enthralling Czech MotoGP in Brno, enthralling at least until his main rival for the Championship and team-mate Jorge Lorenzo fell-off which will have seriously dented his championship chances as he is now 50 points behind Rossi.
Other good news for the English was the return of Jonny Wilkinson for his new French side Toulon where he scored 17 of his team's 22 points in his first game for nearly a year. Let's hope he can stay fit.
Then of course there was the small matter of the World Athletics Championships in Berlin which got underway on Saturday. Jessica Ennis was outstanding in winning the Heptathlon and I for one will be voting for her as Britain's Sports Personality of the Year. To come back from her injury troubles of the last twelve months to dominate the heptathlon from start to finish was brilliant to watch and inspiring for any athletes dreaming of Olympic success in London three years from now.
Following the conclusion of that event was the small matter of the men's 100 metres and the opportunity to see the three fastest men in the world in the same race. The word awesome is the only one I can think of to describe the performance by Usain Bolt who not only beat his world record but destroyed it by running 9.58 seconds from a standing start. It was the greatest demonstration of men's sprinting that has ever been seen and the scary thing is that he can and probably will go faster in this event. Tomorrow, he will embark upon the 200 metres and if he just runs the same time for both halves of the race he will smash his world record but I suspect he could run under 19 seconds for the 200 metres which would be even more outstanding than his 100 metres record.
It is possible that over the last twelve months we have witnessed the emergence of perhaps the greatest athlete of all time and perhaps the greatest sportsman of this generation if not of any. I don't say that lightly when you consider the likes of Roger Federer, Tiger Woods, Valentino Rossi, Michael Phelps, Lance Armstrong and Michael Schumacher amongst others, all of whom are record breakers par excellence but what Bolt is doing in athletics at the age of 22 is truly awesome when you consider he is only in the early stages of his career it is scary to wonder just where his talent could take the record books to.
As for my predictions, I was right with Ennis' win but completely underestimated the talent of Bolt as whilst I thought he'd win I predicted he would not break the world record, yet alone destroy it. Overall, a poor week on the prediction front as only got three right and this means a £3.50 loss for the week meaning I am back to £12.50 down overall since the blog began, but who cares after such a superb few days of sport and more to look forward to over the next week!
Friday, 14 August 2009
Premier League Predictions
Tomorrow sees the start of the 2009/10 premier league and as I have done for many years, I have put together my predictions for how the twenty teams will finish this season. In addition there is also a prediction for the team to win the FA Cup and the Carling Cup and new for this year is who I think will be the first premiership manager to lose his job.
Predictions are:
1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester City
5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham Hostspur
7. Aston Villa
8. West Ham
9. Everton
10. Sunderland
11. Fulham
12. Blackburn
13. Bolton Wanderers
14. Wigan Athletic
15. Wolverhampton Wanderers
16. Portsmouth
17. Birmingham City
18. Stoke City
19. Burnley
20. Hull City
FA Cup Winners - Manchester United
Carling Cup Winners - Manchester City
First Managerial Sacking - Phil Brown at Hull
Probably nothing too contentious other than Manchester City to finish fourth meaning Arsenal drop out. As usual all seven of the teams who have played every premiership season are predicted in the top half of the league. In recent years promoted teams from the Championship have fared reasonably well and so I have only gone for Burnley to drop straight back down along with Hull who were dire in the second half of last season and have struggled to attract new blood over the summer. Stoke did well, particularly at home last season but most of the teams will have sussed them out this year and that is why they are my third choice for relegation.
I will revisit this as the season progresses to see how accurate I have been.
Predictions are:
1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester City
5. Arsenal
6. Tottenham Hostspur
7. Aston Villa
8. West Ham
9. Everton
10. Sunderland
11. Fulham
12. Blackburn
13. Bolton Wanderers
14. Wigan Athletic
15. Wolverhampton Wanderers
16. Portsmouth
17. Birmingham City
18. Stoke City
19. Burnley
20. Hull City
FA Cup Winners - Manchester United
Carling Cup Winners - Manchester City
First Managerial Sacking - Phil Brown at Hull
Probably nothing too contentious other than Manchester City to finish fourth meaning Arsenal drop out. As usual all seven of the teams who have played every premiership season are predicted in the top half of the league. In recent years promoted teams from the Championship have fared reasonably well and so I have only gone for Burnley to drop straight back down along with Hull who were dire in the second half of last season and have struggled to attract new blood over the summer. Stoke did well, particularly at home last season but most of the teams will have sussed them out this year and that is why they are my third choice for relegation.
I will revisit this as the season progresses to see how accurate I have been.
Thursday, 13 August 2009
Busy Weekend Starts Today
Plenty of sport this weekend to be getting on with as the Premiership football season starts, the World Athletics Championships get under way in Berlin and not forgetting the domestic cricket 20/20 finals.
The weekend's action begins today in Minnesota when golf's fourth major, The US PGA, begins with Tiger Woods as hot favourite following his triumphs in his last two tournaments. On the basis I have gone for him to win every major this season, though he hasn't won one, I am going for him again even allowing for the return to form of last year's winner Padraig Harrington at the WGC event last week. My second prediction for this event is that Ian Poulter will finish in the top 10 as he has been there or thereabouts in most majors this season.
After their three week break the Moto GP season season resumes in Brno in the Czech Republic and following the shock result from the British GP at Donnington last time out I am expecting normal service to be resumed and will therefore go for a Valentino Rossi win.
The highlight of the cricketing weekend is the finals of the 20/20 tournament at Edgbaston. For this tournament I am predicting a Kent win over Northamptonshire in the final, mainly based on me being a Kent supporter and the fact they have made every finals day of this tournament!
In Berlin on Saturday morning the World Athletics Championships begin and whilst I doubt there will not be the drama provided by Jesse Owens in the 1936 Olympics (the last time Berlin hosted a major championships), there should be plenty of excitement and maybe even the odd medal for British athletes. My two predictions for the weekend are a win for Jessica Ennis in the heptathlon and the fact that there will not be a world record set in the men's 100 metres final on Sunday - I think Usain Bolt will win but not making a prediction as I have never seen such ridiculous odds for a race where the competitors have to compete in heats, semi-final and final and then win!
Just in case any readers of this blog have been on another planet lately they might not be aware that the football season has started and the premiership gets underway on Saturday lunchtime. Tomorrow I will be providing my forecast of how I think the premier league will end next May but for this week I making three predictions. Firstly, I am going for big spending Manchester City to win away at Blackburn and my remaining two predictions are for draws between Bolton & Sunderland and in the Everton v Arsenal match.
In summary my predictions for the week are:
US PGA Golf
Tiger Woods to win at 19/10
Ian Poulter to finish in top 10 at 13/2
Moto GP
Valentino Rossi to win at 19/20
20/20 Cricket Finals
Kent and Northants to meet in final at 11/4
Kent to win tournament at 9/4
World Athletics Championships
Jessica Ennis to win heptathlon at 6/4
World record not to be broken in men's 100 metres at 5/4
Premiership Football
Manchester City to win at Blackburn at 5/4
Bolton and Sunderland to draw at 23/10
Everton and Arsenal to draw at 9/4
The weekend's action begins today in Minnesota when golf's fourth major, The US PGA, begins with Tiger Woods as hot favourite following his triumphs in his last two tournaments. On the basis I have gone for him to win every major this season, though he hasn't won one, I am going for him again even allowing for the return to form of last year's winner Padraig Harrington at the WGC event last week. My second prediction for this event is that Ian Poulter will finish in the top 10 as he has been there or thereabouts in most majors this season.
After their three week break the Moto GP season season resumes in Brno in the Czech Republic and following the shock result from the British GP at Donnington last time out I am expecting normal service to be resumed and will therefore go for a Valentino Rossi win.
The highlight of the cricketing weekend is the finals of the 20/20 tournament at Edgbaston. For this tournament I am predicting a Kent win over Northamptonshire in the final, mainly based on me being a Kent supporter and the fact they have made every finals day of this tournament!
In Berlin on Saturday morning the World Athletics Championships begin and whilst I doubt there will not be the drama provided by Jesse Owens in the 1936 Olympics (the last time Berlin hosted a major championships), there should be plenty of excitement and maybe even the odd medal for British athletes. My two predictions for the weekend are a win for Jessica Ennis in the heptathlon and the fact that there will not be a world record set in the men's 100 metres final on Sunday - I think Usain Bolt will win but not making a prediction as I have never seen such ridiculous odds for a race where the competitors have to compete in heats, semi-final and final and then win!
Just in case any readers of this blog have been on another planet lately they might not be aware that the football season has started and the premiership gets underway on Saturday lunchtime. Tomorrow I will be providing my forecast of how I think the premier league will end next May but for this week I making three predictions. Firstly, I am going for big spending Manchester City to win away at Blackburn and my remaining two predictions are for draws between Bolton & Sunderland and in the Everton v Arsenal match.
In summary my predictions for the week are:
US PGA Golf
Tiger Woods to win at 19/10
Ian Poulter to finish in top 10 at 13/2
Moto GP
Valentino Rossi to win at 19/20
20/20 Cricket Finals
Kent and Northants to meet in final at 11/4
Kent to win tournament at 9/4
World Athletics Championships
Jessica Ennis to win heptathlon at 6/4
World record not to be broken in men's 100 metres at 5/4
Premiership Football
Manchester City to win at Blackburn at 5/4
Bolton and Sunderland to draw at 23/10
Everton and Arsenal to draw at 9/4
Wednesday, 12 August 2009
Conspiracy or Publicity?
I am surprised that the question of Michael Schumacher's aborted comeback to F1 has not generated more questions that it appears to have done.
Two weeks ago most of the sporting press were triumphing the return of the sport's most successful driver even though there was the caveat that he was carrying an injury. Yesterday, it was announced that this injury will prevent him from taking Felipe Massa's seat at the European Grand Prix in Valencia in 10 days time but what concerns me is that what has happened in the time between the announcement of his return and then the abortion of the effort.
There are two cynical approaches that could be viewed from what has happened. The first is that it was all a publicity stunt to keep F1 in the news during the sport's summer break, conceived by Ferrari and F1's administrators so that the negative events (Massa's serious accident and BMW's withdrawal from the sport) were removed from the headlines. This would have made Schumacher's return look less altruistic and just a knee jerk reaction to what happened in Hungary.
However, there is also a more conspiratorial view and this is that Ferrari, once they realised that Massa's injury may not have been as bad as first thought, saw this as an opportunity to get their greatest driver into their latest car for a test session to see just how good it is. As F1 followers know, in-season testing is banned and the Ferrari has not been on the pace for much of this season even allowing for Raikkonen's second place in Hungary. By using the opportunity presented by Massa's absence to name Schumacher as his replacement they then lobbied the other teams to allow for him to test the car so he could be prepared for Valencia. This had the approval of F1's administrators but was vetoed initially by Williams and then Red Bull & Toro Rosso.
If the test had gone ahead not only would it have proved whether Schumacher was fit enough to drive the latest generation of F1 car but more importantly provide significant feedback to the team as to the overall strength of the car. This information is very important to Ferrari as Raikkonen since winning his World Championship in 2007 has been far from his best form and it is rumoured will be replaced by Alonso at Ferrari next season. Schumacher will have been able to tell the team therefore whether it is a car or driver problem and Ferrari then could have made a rational decision as to whether to develop next season's car from the basis of where they are now with this season's model or go back to the drawing board.
I appreciate that this is a very cynical view but one that would make sense and it is not as if Schumacher does not have history when it comes to dubious methods of achieving a goal. Even after the test Schumacher would still have been able to walk away by saying that his neck was not sufficiently recovered but the information gathered from the test would be available to the Ferrari engineers.
It is quite possible that the attempt by Schumacher to return was purely altruistic, and lets face it F1 and Ferrari would much rather have seen the greatest driver of his generation, if not of all time back in a Grand Prix, rather than the man (Luca Badoer) who has the dubious distinction of having driven more races than any other driver in the history of F1 without winning a point! Not the sort of record to excite the same levels of publicity.
Finally, taking that last point would it have not made sense for Ferrari to have considered either Sebastian Bourdais or Nelson Piquet Jnr who have both recently lost their drives in F1 this season but have experience of both the cars being raced this year, if not the Ferrari, and the circuits which will be used to complete the season. Maybe unfair on Badoer but they have been more competitive during their F1 careers.
Two weeks ago most of the sporting press were triumphing the return of the sport's most successful driver even though there was the caveat that he was carrying an injury. Yesterday, it was announced that this injury will prevent him from taking Felipe Massa's seat at the European Grand Prix in Valencia in 10 days time but what concerns me is that what has happened in the time between the announcement of his return and then the abortion of the effort.
There are two cynical approaches that could be viewed from what has happened. The first is that it was all a publicity stunt to keep F1 in the news during the sport's summer break, conceived by Ferrari and F1's administrators so that the negative events (Massa's serious accident and BMW's withdrawal from the sport) were removed from the headlines. This would have made Schumacher's return look less altruistic and just a knee jerk reaction to what happened in Hungary.
However, there is also a more conspiratorial view and this is that Ferrari, once they realised that Massa's injury may not have been as bad as first thought, saw this as an opportunity to get their greatest driver into their latest car for a test session to see just how good it is. As F1 followers know, in-season testing is banned and the Ferrari has not been on the pace for much of this season even allowing for Raikkonen's second place in Hungary. By using the opportunity presented by Massa's absence to name Schumacher as his replacement they then lobbied the other teams to allow for him to test the car so he could be prepared for Valencia. This had the approval of F1's administrators but was vetoed initially by Williams and then Red Bull & Toro Rosso.
If the test had gone ahead not only would it have proved whether Schumacher was fit enough to drive the latest generation of F1 car but more importantly provide significant feedback to the team as to the overall strength of the car. This information is very important to Ferrari as Raikkonen since winning his World Championship in 2007 has been far from his best form and it is rumoured will be replaced by Alonso at Ferrari next season. Schumacher will have been able to tell the team therefore whether it is a car or driver problem and Ferrari then could have made a rational decision as to whether to develop next season's car from the basis of where they are now with this season's model or go back to the drawing board.
I appreciate that this is a very cynical view but one that would make sense and it is not as if Schumacher does not have history when it comes to dubious methods of achieving a goal. Even after the test Schumacher would still have been able to walk away by saying that his neck was not sufficiently recovered but the information gathered from the test would be available to the Ferrari engineers.
It is quite possible that the attempt by Schumacher to return was purely altruistic, and lets face it F1 and Ferrari would much rather have seen the greatest driver of his generation, if not of all time back in a Grand Prix, rather than the man (Luca Badoer) who has the dubious distinction of having driven more races than any other driver in the history of F1 without winning a point! Not the sort of record to excite the same levels of publicity.
Finally, taking that last point would it have not made sense for Ferrari to have considered either Sebastian Bourdais or Nelson Piquet Jnr who have both recently lost their drives in F1 this season but have experience of both the cars being raced this year, if not the Ferrari, and the circuits which will be used to complete the season. Maybe unfair on Badoer but they have been more competitive during their F1 careers.
Ashes Thrashing and lots of Draws
So England got thrashed in the Ashes and are now threatening wholesale changes for the final test at the Oval next week. Whilst some tinkering with the batting middle order may be needed I can't see the point of making too many temporary changes i.e. bringing back Ramprakash and / or Trescothick will be of no benefit to England going forward. If they are to change the batting middle order then the obvious choices are Key and Trott for Bopara and Bell. However, as I predicted a draw for this match it wasn't a great prediction.
In the Championship football draws were the order of the day and accounted for the results of eight of the twelve matches played at the weekend. Of the four matches that I made predictions on, only Derby's win against Peterborough was correct as Coventry beat Ipswich (I had predicted the reverse result) and the other two matches were draws.
I faired better in the Community Shield which whilst being won on penalties by Chelsea was a draw at full-time matching my prediction. I don't think too much can be read into this match and watch out later in the week when I will be predicting the final positions of all 20 premiership clubs plus winners of the FA & Carling Cups.
The final prediction I made was for South Africa to beat Australia in the tri-nations and this went to form (i.e. the home side winning) and was my third correct prediction of the weekend.
In total I got three out of seven correct predictions leaving me 50 pence down on the week and £9 down since the blog started. This week's predictions will be made tomorrow morning so as to include the US PGA golf and don't be surprised if I pick a certain Tiger Woods to win based on his last couple of tournaments! Other sports will include football, athletics, cricket and Moto GP.
In the Championship football draws were the order of the day and accounted for the results of eight of the twelve matches played at the weekend. Of the four matches that I made predictions on, only Derby's win against Peterborough was correct as Coventry beat Ipswich (I had predicted the reverse result) and the other two matches were draws.
I faired better in the Community Shield which whilst being won on penalties by Chelsea was a draw at full-time matching my prediction. I don't think too much can be read into this match and watch out later in the week when I will be predicting the final positions of all 20 premiership clubs plus winners of the FA & Carling Cups.
The final prediction I made was for South Africa to beat Australia in the tri-nations and this went to form (i.e. the home side winning) and was my third correct prediction of the weekend.
In total I got three out of seven correct predictions leaving me 50 pence down on the week and £9 down since the blog started. This week's predictions will be made tomorrow morning so as to include the US PGA golf and don't be surprised if I pick a certain Tiger Woods to win based on his last couple of tournaments! Other sports will include football, athletics, cricket and Moto GP.
Friday, 7 August 2009
Football's Back & Freddie's Out
Not the greatest start to the weekend to hear that Freddie Flintoff has been ruled out of the fourth Ashes Test at Headingley starting this morning.
However, one player's misfortune will give someone else an opportunity - hopefully Harmison or Sidebottom because I think it would be negative to add another batsman to an already strong batting line-up. Most matches at Headingley have got a result in recent times but personally I think the teams are so evenly matched - though if you look at the respective averages for both batting and bowling you'd be hard pressed to understand why Australia haven't retained the Ashes already - that I am going to go for a draw allowing the tension to continue to the Oval in a couple of weeks time.
There is of course other major sport happening in England this weekend with the return of domestic football just two short months after the end of last season! At Wembley there is the traditional curtain raiser, the Community Shield which will be played between Chelsea and Manchester United this year. These games are not traditionally the most competitive but I'm sure Ancelloti would like to get some early bragging rights over their main rivals, with Ferguson wanting to show that there is still Manchester United after Ronaldo. On that basis I am going for a draw here as well.
In reality the football season has already started with the European games that have been played in the last couple of weeks and the domestic season gets underway tonight in the Championship. The Championship is notoriously difficult to predict and I see this year being no different as any team can potentially beat any other and with the rewards of playing in the Premiership so great we can be assured of great competition - if not always great football.
I am going to make four predictions for this weekend's games but have to admit there is a fair bit of guesswork going on rather than rational judgement. To start with I'm predicting Derby to beat Peterborough in the battle of the sons of two of the most successful managers in British football history - Clough and Ferguson. Next we have a West London team owned by some fairly wealthy motorsports enthusiasts (Ecclestone and Briatore). QPR are playing Blackpool this weekend and I'm going for a home win. West Brom play Newcastle, two of last season's relegated sides, and with the continued ownership turmoil at Newcastle I'm going with the home side again and therefore a West Brom win. My final football prediction are another two former premiership teams as Ipswich take on Coventry at Coventry's Ricoh arena. In this match I'm going for an away win for two reasons, Roy Keane's management capabilities but more importantly I expect the team to lift themselves for this one as a tribute to the recently deceased Sir Bobby Robson, perhaps the Tractor Boys' greatest manager.
My final prediction this weekend is in the tri-nations rugby which continues in South Africa this weekend when the Springboks take on the Wallabies of Australia. No real surprises here as I am sticking with the policy of a home win.
It seems almost a pity that the football season is slowly becoming a football year but I guess that is progress and let's face it the weather is suggesting that it is more suited to football than cricket even in the first week of August!
In summary my predictions with the latest odds are as follows:
Ashes Cricket
England and Australia to draw at 6/4
Community Shield Football
Chelsea to draw with Manchester United at 23/10
Championship Football
Derby to beat Peterborough at 20/19
QPR to beat Blackpool at 11/13
West Brom to beat Newcastle at 13/10
Ipswich to beat Coventry at 7/4
Tri-Nations Rugby
South Africa to beat Australia at 4/11
However, one player's misfortune will give someone else an opportunity - hopefully Harmison or Sidebottom because I think it would be negative to add another batsman to an already strong batting line-up. Most matches at Headingley have got a result in recent times but personally I think the teams are so evenly matched - though if you look at the respective averages for both batting and bowling you'd be hard pressed to understand why Australia haven't retained the Ashes already - that I am going to go for a draw allowing the tension to continue to the Oval in a couple of weeks time.
There is of course other major sport happening in England this weekend with the return of domestic football just two short months after the end of last season! At Wembley there is the traditional curtain raiser, the Community Shield which will be played between Chelsea and Manchester United this year. These games are not traditionally the most competitive but I'm sure Ancelloti would like to get some early bragging rights over their main rivals, with Ferguson wanting to show that there is still Manchester United after Ronaldo. On that basis I am going for a draw here as well.
In reality the football season has already started with the European games that have been played in the last couple of weeks and the domestic season gets underway tonight in the Championship. The Championship is notoriously difficult to predict and I see this year being no different as any team can potentially beat any other and with the rewards of playing in the Premiership so great we can be assured of great competition - if not always great football.
I am going to make four predictions for this weekend's games but have to admit there is a fair bit of guesswork going on rather than rational judgement. To start with I'm predicting Derby to beat Peterborough in the battle of the sons of two of the most successful managers in British football history - Clough and Ferguson. Next we have a West London team owned by some fairly wealthy motorsports enthusiasts (Ecclestone and Briatore). QPR are playing Blackpool this weekend and I'm going for a home win. West Brom play Newcastle, two of last season's relegated sides, and with the continued ownership turmoil at Newcastle I'm going with the home side again and therefore a West Brom win. My final football prediction are another two former premiership teams as Ipswich take on Coventry at Coventry's Ricoh arena. In this match I'm going for an away win for two reasons, Roy Keane's management capabilities but more importantly I expect the team to lift themselves for this one as a tribute to the recently deceased Sir Bobby Robson, perhaps the Tractor Boys' greatest manager.
My final prediction this weekend is in the tri-nations rugby which continues in South Africa this weekend when the Springboks take on the Wallabies of Australia. No real surprises here as I am sticking with the policy of a home win.
It seems almost a pity that the football season is slowly becoming a football year but I guess that is progress and let's face it the weather is suggesting that it is more suited to football than cricket even in the first week of August!
In summary my predictions with the latest odds are as follows:
Ashes Cricket
England and Australia to draw at 6/4
Community Shield Football
Chelsea to draw with Manchester United at 23/10
Championship Football
Derby to beat Peterborough at 20/19
QPR to beat Blackpool at 11/13
West Brom to beat Newcastle at 13/10
Ipswich to beat Coventry at 7/4
Tri-Nations Rugby
South Africa to beat Australia at 4/11
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
Rise of the British Amazon
It occurred to me during the recent World Swimming Championships how much British women's sport has improved over recent years, but not just improved but actually in many cases exceeded the achievements of our male sportsmen.
For many years we have been told how much better girls and women have been doing than their male counterparts in education at all age levels but I had not noticed their rise in the sporting arena. This is probably because women's sport gets far fewer column inches in the press or live coverage on television, but maybe it is time for journalists, broadcasters and sponsors to take note.
As I said above I noticed at the swimming world championships how much better our female swimmers were doing than our men and this was borne out by the fact that from our record haul of seven medals at the championships, six came from women's races with only Liam Tancock providing any success for the men. This is a trend that has carried on from the Olympics last year in Beijing where in the two main sports (swimming and athletics) the men's team won three medals but the women's team won seven including the three gold medals we won in these two sports, by Rebecca Adlington and Christine Ohuruogu. In a couple of weeks the World Athletic Championships will start in Berlin and yet again most of the medal hopes will come from the women's team.
However, this success is not limited to these two sports but encompasses nearly every sport in which both men and women compete. Whilst the British team were hugely successful at cycling at last year's Olympics we could have enjoyed more success if there were as many women's events as there were men's. This was any argument put forward at the time by Victoria Pendleton who said she would have loved the chance to emualate Sir Chris Hoy's achievements but was discriminated against because there were not the same events open to both sexes.
In golf Catriona Matthew won the women's British Open at the weekend but it is more than 10 years since a British man has won a golfing major. The England women's cricket team hold the Ashes and are World Champions unlike their male counterparts. Nearly all of the best three day eventers in Britain are women (four out of five of our Olympic team and that didn't include Zara Phillips whose horse was injured). In tennis where is the next Andy Murray? Whilst we don't currently have a top ranked female tennis player we do have Laura Robson who won junior Wimbledon last year.
Even with all this female success these women do not seem to be getting the credit or the recognition that they deserve and this has been amply demonstrated again this week with news that Nicole Cooke's professional cycling team is struggling with financing even though she was an Olympic gold medallist and world champion last year. Is it not time for our administrators to start shouting from the rooftops about these successes and by raising the profile of women's sport attract more sponsorship money so that these successes can be built upon?
For many years we have been told how much better girls and women have been doing than their male counterparts in education at all age levels but I had not noticed their rise in the sporting arena. This is probably because women's sport gets far fewer column inches in the press or live coverage on television, but maybe it is time for journalists, broadcasters and sponsors to take note.
As I said above I noticed at the swimming world championships how much better our female swimmers were doing than our men and this was borne out by the fact that from our record haul of seven medals at the championships, six came from women's races with only Liam Tancock providing any success for the men. This is a trend that has carried on from the Olympics last year in Beijing where in the two main sports (swimming and athletics) the men's team won three medals but the women's team won seven including the three gold medals we won in these two sports, by Rebecca Adlington and Christine Ohuruogu. In a couple of weeks the World Athletic Championships will start in Berlin and yet again most of the medal hopes will come from the women's team.
However, this success is not limited to these two sports but encompasses nearly every sport in which both men and women compete. Whilst the British team were hugely successful at cycling at last year's Olympics we could have enjoyed more success if there were as many women's events as there were men's. This was any argument put forward at the time by Victoria Pendleton who said she would have loved the chance to emualate Sir Chris Hoy's achievements but was discriminated against because there were not the same events open to both sexes.
In golf Catriona Matthew won the women's British Open at the weekend but it is more than 10 years since a British man has won a golfing major. The England women's cricket team hold the Ashes and are World Champions unlike their male counterparts. Nearly all of the best three day eventers in Britain are women (four out of five of our Olympic team and that didn't include Zara Phillips whose horse was injured). In tennis where is the next Andy Murray? Whilst we don't currently have a top ranked female tennis player we do have Laura Robson who won junior Wimbledon last year.
Even with all this female success these women do not seem to be getting the credit or the recognition that they deserve and this has been amply demonstrated again this week with news that Nicole Cooke's professional cycling team is struggling with financing even though she was an Olympic gold medallist and world champion last year. Is it not time for our administrators to start shouting from the rooftops about these successes and by raising the profile of women's sport attract more sponsorship money so that these successes can be built upon?
Monday, 3 August 2009
100% Predictions this Weekend!
First time ever but a bit of a cheat as only made two sporting predictions for the weekend. As I thought the weather was the major factor for the cricket at Edgbaston and whilst there was a possibility yesterday evening that England could try and force a win the Aussie batsmen were resolute today so the game petered out to a draw. Not long to wait for the next installment as the next game at Headingley starts on Friday and this will be the pivotal match with two to play and England one up in the series.
The second prediction was for the Springboks to beat the All Blacks in Saturday's tri-nations match and this went true to form following an outstanding performance by Morne Steyn who set a new tri-nations record with his 31 point haul. That is now three losses in their last six tests for the All Blacks and their aura of invincibility (a bit like the Aussie cricket team's) has faded away in the last few years - something that will be of concern to the nation with the next World Cup being hosted in New Zealand in a couple of years time. I for one, am not complaining with England appearing to be on the up at the moment, but two years is a long way away.
The main other sporting action saw further British success at the World Swimming Championships in Rome, leading to our greatest haul of seven medals in the thirteenth installment of these championships. Mark Cavendish won his twentieth race of the season just a week after the conclusion of the Tour de France, Catriona Matthew won the Ladies British Open golf less than three months after giving birth and Tiger Woods got back to winning ways after his poor performance at the Open a couple of weeks ago.
In addition to the cricket the football season gets underway next weekend - below premiership level - and so more scope for predictions next week but in the meantime made a £1.50 profit this week so only down by £8.50 for the time being.
The second prediction was for the Springboks to beat the All Blacks in Saturday's tri-nations match and this went true to form following an outstanding performance by Morne Steyn who set a new tri-nations record with his 31 point haul. That is now three losses in their last six tests for the All Blacks and their aura of invincibility (a bit like the Aussie cricket team's) has faded away in the last few years - something that will be of concern to the nation with the next World Cup being hosted in New Zealand in a couple of years time. I for one, am not complaining with England appearing to be on the up at the moment, but two years is a long way away.
The main other sporting action saw further British success at the World Swimming Championships in Rome, leading to our greatest haul of seven medals in the thirteenth installment of these championships. Mark Cavendish won his twentieth race of the season just a week after the conclusion of the Tour de France, Catriona Matthew won the Ladies British Open golf less than three months after giving birth and Tiger Woods got back to winning ways after his poor performance at the Open a couple of weeks ago.
In addition to the cricket the football season gets underway next weekend - below premiership level - and so more scope for predictions next week but in the meantime made a £1.50 profit this week so only down by £8.50 for the time being.
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