Bring it on! In three weeks time at the European Grand Prix in Valencia, the greatest F1 driver of all time (at least statistically), returns to to the sport in place of the injured Felipe Massa.
I am hugely excited by this prospect as unlike many other British followers of F1 I genuinely believe that he is the greatest driver in the sport of all time. It is easy to prove this with statistics, more Grand Prix wins (91 in total), more pole positions, more championship points and of course his seven championship wins. But there is more than just the raw statistics but his absolute desire to win which is what scarred his reputation in many people's eyes and I am sure it is this passion to win that has brought him out of retirement this summer as he has nothing left to prove.
The first time I saw Michael Schumacher race was at Silverstone in a sports car race in 1991 before he had progressed into F1. It was a typical wet, grey day at the Northamptonshire circuit and whilst he didn't win that race (he and co-driver Wendlinger finished second), when he was in the car it looked like it was on rails whilst all of his competitors looked as if they were on ice skates. I commented after the race to my father that I expected he would be in F1 by the beginning of the next season and my prediction was proved right as he made his GP debut for Jordan later that year before moving to the more competitive Benetton team after one race.
It did not take long for Schumacher to establish himself in F1 and like all great champions he ensured that no stone was left unturned in his relentless pursuit of success. He made sure that the whole team was built around him and in return he delivered the results that this domineering approach required. The closest comparison to this in recent years was Lance Armstrong's approach to the Tour de France and Lance like Michael produced the results. It is interesting to note that both of these great champions have come out of retirement in the same year. Lance's third place at this year's tour has proved it was the right decision and he hopes to get back to winning ways next year through the same approach that served him so well in the past i.e. a team built around him.
Schumacher is in a similar position in that because he has been away for nearly three years the team is not his any more, but having said that he has been involved with them since his retirement and as I have no doubt he will be straight on the pace he will get the support he deserves. Some pundits are suggesting that he has much to lose and little to gain by returning to the sport that he transcended for many years but I disagree. Primarily, the Ferrari has not been that competitive this season though Raikkonen did come second last weekend but if Schumacher gets some decent finishes it will be huge boost for the team and if he doesn't it can still be put down to an uncompetitive car this season. Secondly, as I said in yesterday's blog the regulations for next season are broadly similar to next season so essentially he can become the test driver for next season's car to ensure that they are competitive from day one in 2010. Thirdly, the question of his age has been raised as a reason why he can't be competitive - rubbish - as he will have lost none of his talent but will maybe be a little down on his previous fitness levels. Fangio won all five of his world titles in his forties and both Prost and Mansell won World Championships in the 1990s when not much younger than Schumacher is now.
Of course there will be others anticipating the return of Schumacher and they are the current young hotshots Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel, who will be desperate to prove they are as good as the best. His teammate Raikkonen may be a little more nervous as he was brought in as Schumacher's replacement and whilst he won the 2007 championship he has been less competitive since.
The European Grand Prix may not be the best chance for Schumacher to shine as it will be his first race back, at a track that has been added to the calendar since he retired and because there is no testing allowed before the race but the two races afterwards will be the ones to watch. He has won at Spa six times including his first ever Grand Prix win a year after he made his debut, this will then be followed by the Italian GP at Monza where he has triumphed five times and I for one am reluctant to bet against a sixth success in front of the Tiffosi - what a story that would make.
When I wrote my blog yesterday my only thoughts regarding Michael Schumacher where that he could end up as a figurehead for a team or consortium that may try and purchase the BMW team but didn't think it worthy of comment. Perhaps now in Lance Armstrong style this may not sound quite so ridiculous.
Roll on 23rd August (which will be my second day as a 40 year old incidentally) and maybe the BBC should consider a certain M Walker as commentator for the momentous occasion just to add to the excitement and expectation!
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Wednesday, 29 July 2009
What to do with Formula One
Nearly wrote something on Formula One yesterday after the events at the Hungarian Grand Prix but pleased I waited with BMW's announcement that they were pulling out of the sport this morning.
The season started with the promise of being the closest for years with potentially every team in with a chance of having success, but having just crossed the half-way point of the season it looks like the changes have not turned out in the way that was envisaged. I say this because the two teams that dominated the start of the season - Brawn and Red Bull - seem to have been caught by the two big boys of the grid, McLaren and Ferrari. These latter two teams started this season at a disadvantage as they had to fight to the wire last season to secure the Drivers and Constructors Championship whereas many of the other teams had focused on developing this season's car from early last year, based on the knowledge that the regulations were going to be very different this year.
However, less than six months into the season the two teams with perhaps the largest budgets have been able to catch-up and allied perhaps to the strongest driver line-ups have taken advantage. They are also the only two teams to have persevered with the controversial KERS systems which means they have a better chance of overtaking other cars on the track. My concern is that other than KERS all the other regulations brought in improve the ability for cars to overtake have been negated by some very clever designers and aerodynamicists.
Next year the regulations are going to be broadly similar to those we have now other than the banning of refuelling and a strong likelihood that KERS will not be available. This means that with Ferrari and McLaren now back at the front of the grid it means they will probably still be there again next season. It would easy to be see while the bosses at BMW decided that enough was enough and pulled the plug on their dalliance with F1 and also why Toyota and Renault may do the same because as well as the cost of operating a team I imagine the marketeers aren't too happy to see their brand trailing around in the middle, or worse, back of the pack.
Two people who no doubt have a wry smile on their face are Bernie Ecclestone and Max Mosley as it has been these same big car manufacturers that have threatened the hold on power they have built up over the last 30 years in the sport. With the three new entrants next year to the Grid (Manor Motorsport, Campos Racing and US GP) it looks like the power could be shifting back to the independent teams - and this would be further enhanced if BMW were to be bought as well.
So what next for the sport? It is too late to change much for next season in terms of rules but the names of the teams will be different. Budget capping won't work and has been ruled out whilst having "standard" cars or engines would detract from one of the main strengths of F1. Personally, I think that the administrators need to look at why other series work like Indycar in the US. There does tend to be more overtaking, and not just on the oval circuits but also the road circuits. The technology may be less sophisticated and it is does become difficult to "uninvent" many of the features of F1 cars but other aspects need to be looked at. An example from Indycar is that cars being approached to be lapped do not have to give way and this can lead to cars becoming bunched up behind a lapped car creating overtaking opportunities.
Whatever is done, safety cannot be compromised whilst keeping in mind that racing at speeds up to 200mph will always have some danger. It is easy to make knee-jerk reactions such as those after the Hungarian Grand Prix with Renault being suspended because Alsono's wheel was not properly attached. Yes, it was dangerous especially following the incidents at Brands Hatch and in qualifying for Sunday's race but would the same punishment have been meted out if neither of these incidents had happened - I doubt it. F1 and all motorsport have become incredibly safe over the last 25 years but accidents and mistakes do happen, and as long as lessons are learnt then that should be the main criteria. Banning Renault, and by default their former World Champion Alonso from the race in Valencia in my eyes move the team one step closer to withdrawing from the sport altogether.
Personally, I think the move back to independent as opposed to manufacturer teams will be good for the sport and take it back to its heyday for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the manufacturers are big companies with shareholders and as such have to take commercial decisions that will provide the best return for their stakeholders and to facilitate this within the sport it means that they have put undue pressure on those that run the sport - it should not be the teams dictating the rules. Secondly, the two teams that have been most successful this season to date are Brawn and Red Bull, both independent yet both were manufacturer teams (Honda and Ford) yet both had highly intelligent engineers who interpreted the new rules better than the other teams. F1 is all about innovation and this is more likely to flourish at "smaller" independent teams meaning there could be different teams coming to the front of the grid at different times.
Sports teams have historically been a rich mans plaything and that should continue, they should not be corporate marketing machines. There is a role for corporations as there has been in F1 since the sixties and that is sponsoring the teams (pretty much as happens in football now). The teams that can be successful will be the ones to find the next Colin Chapman, Patrick Head or Adrian Newey and when they have found one of them then the marketing team can go and get the best sponsors who will pump further money into the team. This model worked for a long time and I don't see it ever really broke so returning to it would be in the best interests of a sport that I like millions of others love following.
Finally, I'd like to say that I think this year's championship is turning out to be great, despite the politics, and I for one wouldn't want to try and predict the winner of either championship - though I think maybe McLaren and Ferrari have left it a couple of races too late to be challenging.
The season started with the promise of being the closest for years with potentially every team in with a chance of having success, but having just crossed the half-way point of the season it looks like the changes have not turned out in the way that was envisaged. I say this because the two teams that dominated the start of the season - Brawn and Red Bull - seem to have been caught by the two big boys of the grid, McLaren and Ferrari. These latter two teams started this season at a disadvantage as they had to fight to the wire last season to secure the Drivers and Constructors Championship whereas many of the other teams had focused on developing this season's car from early last year, based on the knowledge that the regulations were going to be very different this year.
However, less than six months into the season the two teams with perhaps the largest budgets have been able to catch-up and allied perhaps to the strongest driver line-ups have taken advantage. They are also the only two teams to have persevered with the controversial KERS systems which means they have a better chance of overtaking other cars on the track. My concern is that other than KERS all the other regulations brought in improve the ability for cars to overtake have been negated by some very clever designers and aerodynamicists.
Next year the regulations are going to be broadly similar to those we have now other than the banning of refuelling and a strong likelihood that KERS will not be available. This means that with Ferrari and McLaren now back at the front of the grid it means they will probably still be there again next season. It would easy to be see while the bosses at BMW decided that enough was enough and pulled the plug on their dalliance with F1 and also why Toyota and Renault may do the same because as well as the cost of operating a team I imagine the marketeers aren't too happy to see their brand trailing around in the middle, or worse, back of the pack.
Two people who no doubt have a wry smile on their face are Bernie Ecclestone and Max Mosley as it has been these same big car manufacturers that have threatened the hold on power they have built up over the last 30 years in the sport. With the three new entrants next year to the Grid (Manor Motorsport, Campos Racing and US GP) it looks like the power could be shifting back to the independent teams - and this would be further enhanced if BMW were to be bought as well.
So what next for the sport? It is too late to change much for next season in terms of rules but the names of the teams will be different. Budget capping won't work and has been ruled out whilst having "standard" cars or engines would detract from one of the main strengths of F1. Personally, I think that the administrators need to look at why other series work like Indycar in the US. There does tend to be more overtaking, and not just on the oval circuits but also the road circuits. The technology may be less sophisticated and it is does become difficult to "uninvent" many of the features of F1 cars but other aspects need to be looked at. An example from Indycar is that cars being approached to be lapped do not have to give way and this can lead to cars becoming bunched up behind a lapped car creating overtaking opportunities.
Whatever is done, safety cannot be compromised whilst keeping in mind that racing at speeds up to 200mph will always have some danger. It is easy to make knee-jerk reactions such as those after the Hungarian Grand Prix with Renault being suspended because Alsono's wheel was not properly attached. Yes, it was dangerous especially following the incidents at Brands Hatch and in qualifying for Sunday's race but would the same punishment have been meted out if neither of these incidents had happened - I doubt it. F1 and all motorsport have become incredibly safe over the last 25 years but accidents and mistakes do happen, and as long as lessons are learnt then that should be the main criteria. Banning Renault, and by default their former World Champion Alonso from the race in Valencia in my eyes move the team one step closer to withdrawing from the sport altogether.
Personally, I think the move back to independent as opposed to manufacturer teams will be good for the sport and take it back to its heyday for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the manufacturers are big companies with shareholders and as such have to take commercial decisions that will provide the best return for their stakeholders and to facilitate this within the sport it means that they have put undue pressure on those that run the sport - it should not be the teams dictating the rules. Secondly, the two teams that have been most successful this season to date are Brawn and Red Bull, both independent yet both were manufacturer teams (Honda and Ford) yet both had highly intelligent engineers who interpreted the new rules better than the other teams. F1 is all about innovation and this is more likely to flourish at "smaller" independent teams meaning there could be different teams coming to the front of the grid at different times.
Sports teams have historically been a rich mans plaything and that should continue, they should not be corporate marketing machines. There is a role for corporations as there has been in F1 since the sixties and that is sponsoring the teams (pretty much as happens in football now). The teams that can be successful will be the ones to find the next Colin Chapman, Patrick Head or Adrian Newey and when they have found one of them then the marketing team can go and get the best sponsors who will pump further money into the team. This model worked for a long time and I don't see it ever really broke so returning to it would be in the best interests of a sport that I like millions of others love following.
Finally, I'd like to say that I think this year's championship is turning out to be great, despite the politics, and I for one wouldn't want to try and predict the winner of either championship - though I think maybe McLaren and Ferrari have left it a couple of races too late to be challenging.
Not Much to Predict this Weekend
It looks like being a fairly quiet week on the prediction front but not quiet on the sporting front particularly with the Ashes test at Edgbaston.
I think the weather will be a major factor in deciding the outcome of this match and even though there are excellent odds for an England win I am going with my head and not heart and predicting a draw.
The only other sport I will be predicting this week will be the international rugby between South Africa and New Zealand and like last week I am going for the home side and therefore a Springbok win.
Of course there is plenty of other sport taking place at the weekend, most notably the World Swimming Championships in sunny Rome but difficult to get odds on many of the races and I must confess to not being an expert on swimming. Next week should be back to normal service with the football season starting in England (albeit the Premiership does not start until the following weekend).
Ashes Cricket
England & Australia to draw at 5/6
Tri-Nations Rugby Union
Springboks to beat the All Blacks at 4/7
I think the weather will be a major factor in deciding the outcome of this match and even though there are excellent odds for an England win I am going with my head and not heart and predicting a draw.
The only other sport I will be predicting this week will be the international rugby between South Africa and New Zealand and like last week I am going for the home side and therefore a Springbok win.
Of course there is plenty of other sport taking place at the weekend, most notably the World Swimming Championships in sunny Rome but difficult to get odds on many of the races and I must confess to not being an expert on swimming. Next week should be back to normal service with the football season starting in England (albeit the Premiership does not start until the following weekend).
Ashes Cricket
England & Australia to draw at 5/6
Tri-Nations Rugby Union
Springboks to beat the All Blacks at 4/7
Monday, 27 July 2009
Thrills and a Serious Spill
A great weekend of sport but clearly marred by Felipe Massa's serious crash in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix, freakishly six days after the death of Henry Surtees.
Firstly, I hope that Massa makes a quick recovery and look forward to seeing him back in the cockpit of his Ferrari as soon as he is fit. The Grand Prix itself while not a classic did show the part money has to play in this sport with a McLaren and Ferrari on the top two steps of the podium. It's almost as if the Brawn and McLarens have swapped liveries in the last few weeks as the decline of one marque has been matched with the improvement in the other, but it does promise to be a hugely exciting climax to the season as Button's seemingly dominant championship lead is being whittled away. Great to see Hamilton back at the front and he matched my prediction of being on the podium though I had not expected him to win.
The Moto GP also had more than it's fair share of excitement that eventually led to a debut win for Dovizioso but only after Edwards and De Puniet had expended their best efforts to gain their first win in the class. Rossi may not have had his most memorable race but then again I don't ever recall seeing a rider fall off his bike and then charge back through the field to come fifth which showed immense character. The Ducatis had a race to forget having opted to race on wet tyres assuming it would save them a pit-stop in the race but it was a far from inspired decision as the rain never arrived (at least not to the extent they expected) and both riders ended up being lapped and finishing at the back of the race. No correct predictions but superb entertainment.
I also didn't have any joy with the cricket having plumped for Sussex and ignored a certain Dominic Cork who rolled back the years and put in a match-winning performance for Hampshire. Thankfully the Springboks didn't squander their home advantage in the tri-nations match and withstood a second-half comeback from the All Blacks to start their campaign with a win as I'd predicted.
Another who didn't disappoint was Usain Bolt who strolled(!) to victory in the London Grand Prix Athletics but what in today's sprinting terms was the relatively slow time of 9.91 which matched my prediction, as I had suspected, because of the weather. What was more amazing was the scratch team he anchored to success in the 4 x 100 metres relay in the fourth fastest time ever.
Finally there was the climax to the Tour de France which produced a number of records as well as proving that Alberto Contador is currently the best cyclist in the world. By finishing third Lance Armstrong equalled Raymond Poulidor's record of eight podium finishes in this great race but I do wonder if this is the best he will be able to hope for next year even with a team built around him. The Brits also had their fair share of records this year with Bradley Wiggins equalling Robert Millar's feat of finishing fourth a quarter of a century ago. However, with the support of his Columbia team, Mark Cavendish underlined his reputation as the sport's best sprinter with his six wins climaxing with the superb win on the Champs Elysees by the biggest margin I can remember on the final stage as well as matching my prediction. Whilst it is unlikely he will come close to challenging Merckx's record of 34 stage wins, at the age of 24 he should potentially have his best years in front of him and he should be the man to beat for the Green Jersey in the foreseeable future.
It was probably one of the best tours in recent years, obviously helped by the showing of the two British riders mentioned above, but also by the returns of Contador and Armstrong and I for one look forward to the recommencing of battle in Rotterdam next July. Just one suggestion for the organisers would be to abandon the team time trial.
In all I had four correct predictions from nine which left me all square on the week meaning I am still £10 down.
Firstly, I hope that Massa makes a quick recovery and look forward to seeing him back in the cockpit of his Ferrari as soon as he is fit. The Grand Prix itself while not a classic did show the part money has to play in this sport with a McLaren and Ferrari on the top two steps of the podium. It's almost as if the Brawn and McLarens have swapped liveries in the last few weeks as the decline of one marque has been matched with the improvement in the other, but it does promise to be a hugely exciting climax to the season as Button's seemingly dominant championship lead is being whittled away. Great to see Hamilton back at the front and he matched my prediction of being on the podium though I had not expected him to win.
The Moto GP also had more than it's fair share of excitement that eventually led to a debut win for Dovizioso but only after Edwards and De Puniet had expended their best efforts to gain their first win in the class. Rossi may not have had his most memorable race but then again I don't ever recall seeing a rider fall off his bike and then charge back through the field to come fifth which showed immense character. The Ducatis had a race to forget having opted to race on wet tyres assuming it would save them a pit-stop in the race but it was a far from inspired decision as the rain never arrived (at least not to the extent they expected) and both riders ended up being lapped and finishing at the back of the race. No correct predictions but superb entertainment.
I also didn't have any joy with the cricket having plumped for Sussex and ignored a certain Dominic Cork who rolled back the years and put in a match-winning performance for Hampshire. Thankfully the Springboks didn't squander their home advantage in the tri-nations match and withstood a second-half comeback from the All Blacks to start their campaign with a win as I'd predicted.
Another who didn't disappoint was Usain Bolt who strolled(!) to victory in the London Grand Prix Athletics but what in today's sprinting terms was the relatively slow time of 9.91 which matched my prediction, as I had suspected, because of the weather. What was more amazing was the scratch team he anchored to success in the 4 x 100 metres relay in the fourth fastest time ever.
Finally there was the climax to the Tour de France which produced a number of records as well as proving that Alberto Contador is currently the best cyclist in the world. By finishing third Lance Armstrong equalled Raymond Poulidor's record of eight podium finishes in this great race but I do wonder if this is the best he will be able to hope for next year even with a team built around him. The Brits also had their fair share of records this year with Bradley Wiggins equalling Robert Millar's feat of finishing fourth a quarter of a century ago. However, with the support of his Columbia team, Mark Cavendish underlined his reputation as the sport's best sprinter with his six wins climaxing with the superb win on the Champs Elysees by the biggest margin I can remember on the final stage as well as matching my prediction. Whilst it is unlikely he will come close to challenging Merckx's record of 34 stage wins, at the age of 24 he should potentially have his best years in front of him and he should be the man to beat for the Green Jersey in the foreseeable future.
It was probably one of the best tours in recent years, obviously helped by the showing of the two British riders mentioned above, but also by the returns of Contador and Armstrong and I for one look forward to the recommencing of battle in Rotterdam next July. Just one suggestion for the organisers would be to abandon the team time trial.
In all I had four correct predictions from nine which left me all square on the week meaning I am still £10 down.
Friday, 24 July 2009
It's Friday and Time for Predictions
The biggest event this weekend will be the climax of the Tour de France with the penultimate stage up to the summit of Mont Ventoux and the final day on the Champs Elysees. In addition there is the Hungarian Grand Prix, the last before their summer break, the British Moto GP, cricket's Friends Provident Trophy Final at Lords, the London Grand Prix athletics at Crystal Palace and not forgetting the second match in rugby union's tri-nations.
It looks like barring injury that all of the jersey classifications in the tour have been settled with only the remaining podium positions to be finalised. Contador has ridden superbly and deserves his second tour win. However, the five riders behind him are fairly close but I think Andy Schleck will hold on to second place and do so in style by winning stage 20 up to Ventoux. In third and fourth are perhaps the biggest surprises with the 37 year old Armstrong eleven seconds ahead of Briton Bradley Wiggins. It would be great to see Armstrong hold on to the final podium place as he has shown that his comeback wasn't just a publicity stunt but that he can compete, having said that I'd be delighted to see a Brit on the podium for the first time ever in a Tour de France and let Raymond Poulidor hold on to his record of eight podium finishes in the race.
On Sunday the riders will parade around Paris to celebrate completing one of sports greatest challenges. There is still a stage to race for though and I have no hesitation in picking Mark Cavendish who has won every stage he has competed for in this year's race. If he were to win this would make it six in total and ten in two Tours de France - how many could he have won if hadn't withdrawn at the halfway stage last year!
For motorsport fans the weekend doesn't get much better, as there is the Hungarian Grand Prix and the Moto GP for the last time at Donnington on Sunday. In F1 the Brawns should be back at the sharp end and the McLaren's have looked particularly racy in practice today with their new modifications. Interestingly before this season both Button of Brawn and Kovalainen of McLaren had only won one Grand Prix in their careers, both having achieved that success in Hungary. These two drivers could triumph again this weekend but I am going for Button to win his seventh race of the season and Hamilton to get onto the podium.
In the Moto GP the Yamahas have been the bikes to beat this season and particularly in the last few races. Unsurprisingly, I am going for a Rossi win and for Stoner's Ducati to make the podium. Like F1 there are still four riders very much in with a chance of winning the title this season and I think this championship has every chance of going to the last race of the season whereas in F1 if Button can win on Sunday he might just be able to open an unassailable gap to his pursuers.
There are two major sporting events taking place in London this weekend. The first which starts this evening is the London Grand Prix athletics where Usain Bolt will be running in the 100 metres. I'd have to be mad to bet against him winning, so I won't, but because of this wonderful British summer weather we have I don't think he will threaten his world record this weekend and I'm predicting him to win but with a finishing time of 9.80 seconds or greater.
At Lords tomorrow is the first of English cricket's domestic finals, The Friends Provident limited overs final between Sussex and Hampshire. If Hampshire had Pietersen fit and if Warne was still playing it would have been an easy choice for me but without these two great players I am going for a Sussex win.
My final prediction this weekend takes us to South Africa where the Springboks open their tri-nations tournament against the All Blacks. Many of these matches go with home advantage and the All Blacks have not looked as good this year as they have in the past so I'm going for a South Africa win but it will be tight.
In summary my predictions are:
Tour de France
To win Saturday's stage to Mont Ventoux - Andy Schleck at 19/4
To win the final stage in Paris - Cavendish at 8/11
Hungarian Grand Prix
Button to win at 11/4
Hamilton to podium at 15/8
British Moto GP
Rossi to win at 5/4
Stoner to podium at 4/5
London Grand Prix Athletics
Bolt to win in a time of 9.80 seconds or greater at 7/4
Cricket's Friends Provident Trophy
Sussex to win at 10/11
Tri-Nations Rugby
South Africa to beat New Zealand at 4/7
It looks like barring injury that all of the jersey classifications in the tour have been settled with only the remaining podium positions to be finalised. Contador has ridden superbly and deserves his second tour win. However, the five riders behind him are fairly close but I think Andy Schleck will hold on to second place and do so in style by winning stage 20 up to Ventoux. In third and fourth are perhaps the biggest surprises with the 37 year old Armstrong eleven seconds ahead of Briton Bradley Wiggins. It would be great to see Armstrong hold on to the final podium place as he has shown that his comeback wasn't just a publicity stunt but that he can compete, having said that I'd be delighted to see a Brit on the podium for the first time ever in a Tour de France and let Raymond Poulidor hold on to his record of eight podium finishes in the race.
On Sunday the riders will parade around Paris to celebrate completing one of sports greatest challenges. There is still a stage to race for though and I have no hesitation in picking Mark Cavendish who has won every stage he has competed for in this year's race. If he were to win this would make it six in total and ten in two Tours de France - how many could he have won if hadn't withdrawn at the halfway stage last year!
For motorsport fans the weekend doesn't get much better, as there is the Hungarian Grand Prix and the Moto GP for the last time at Donnington on Sunday. In F1 the Brawns should be back at the sharp end and the McLaren's have looked particularly racy in practice today with their new modifications. Interestingly before this season both Button of Brawn and Kovalainen of McLaren had only won one Grand Prix in their careers, both having achieved that success in Hungary. These two drivers could triumph again this weekend but I am going for Button to win his seventh race of the season and Hamilton to get onto the podium.
In the Moto GP the Yamahas have been the bikes to beat this season and particularly in the last few races. Unsurprisingly, I am going for a Rossi win and for Stoner's Ducati to make the podium. Like F1 there are still four riders very much in with a chance of winning the title this season and I think this championship has every chance of going to the last race of the season whereas in F1 if Button can win on Sunday he might just be able to open an unassailable gap to his pursuers.
There are two major sporting events taking place in London this weekend. The first which starts this evening is the London Grand Prix athletics where Usain Bolt will be running in the 100 metres. I'd have to be mad to bet against him winning, so I won't, but because of this wonderful British summer weather we have I don't think he will threaten his world record this weekend and I'm predicting him to win but with a finishing time of 9.80 seconds or greater.
At Lords tomorrow is the first of English cricket's domestic finals, The Friends Provident limited overs final between Sussex and Hampshire. If Hampshire had Pietersen fit and if Warne was still playing it would have been an easy choice for me but without these two great players I am going for a Sussex win.
My final prediction this weekend takes us to South Africa where the Springboks open their tri-nations tournament against the All Blacks. Many of these matches go with home advantage and the All Blacks have not looked as good this year as they have in the past so I'm going for a South Africa win but it will be tight.
In summary my predictions are:
Tour de France
To win Saturday's stage to Mont Ventoux - Andy Schleck at 19/4
To win the final stage in Paris - Cavendish at 8/11
Hungarian Grand Prix
Button to win at 11/4
Hamilton to podium at 15/8
British Moto GP
Rossi to win at 5/4
Stoner to podium at 4/5
London Grand Prix Athletics
Bolt to win in a time of 9.80 seconds or greater at 7/4
Cricket's Friends Provident Trophy
Sussex to win at 10/11
Tri-Nations Rugby
South Africa to beat New Zealand at 4/7
Thursday, 23 July 2009
Reasons to be Cheerful
Seventy years ago this summer the clouds of war were gathering around the world and Britain's approach of appeasement had clearly not worked leaving the country was completely unprepared for the ensuing conflict. In the twenty years since the end of the previous war Britain as a nation was undoubtedly in decline both at home during the Great Depression but as importantly abroad as our Empire began to disintegrate.
This decline was reflected in our sporting prowess as a nation and in some sports we have not noticeably recovered e.g. we have not produced a male winner of a Tennis Grand Slam tournament since 1935. Many reasons have been put forward this decline some of which are relevant but what I find more startling is how this decline has been reversed in the first decade of 21st Century.
Perhaps the most compelling reason for the decline is traced back to the shocking casualty toll that Britain experienced in the first world war with a significant proportion of a generation being either killed or wounded. This is of course relevant but it should be remembered that proportionately many other European nations suffered to the same degree and so maybe this just becomes a convenient excuse. This is backed up when you look at the medal tables from the Olympics won by Britons both before the war and immediately afterwards when Britain was typically in the top 5 nations and it was only from 1928 at the Amsterdam Olympics that our trend of targeting the top 10 nations set-in.
Another argument that has been put forward was that we were an idealistic nation enshrined in an amateur ethos. Again there is substance to this view but it should also be remembered that at that time many sports were played on an amateur basis throughout the world and professional sports such as Golf and Football were played in this country as they were elsewhere. Linked with this reason could be that our sport's administrators were enshrined in this ethos and England did not enter Football World Cup's before the war because it was viewed that as a nation we did not need to win a World Cup to prove we were the best.
After the war other excuses started to be used though no doubt our amateur approach still played an important part. These excuses ranged from the lack of investment into sport by Government, particularly in comparison with the Soviet Bloc countries who also weren't afraid to use pharmaceutical methods to improve performance.
There was also the world becoming a smaller place and more countries particularly in the third world focusing on a sport and producing world beaters who became ambassadors for their country - the East African nations in athletics are a good example of this.
As the 20th Century drew to a conclusion another reason put forward was that we were only a small nation (at least by population) in comparison with other countries and that we were dividing our resources to thin across too many sports leading us to becoming a "jack of all trades nation and master of none".
My belief is that we hit the bottom of the trough about the mid 1990's - we failed to qualify for the 1994 Football World Cup & at the 1996 summer Olympics we only managed one gold medal - and two further reasons were put forward for our failure as a sporting nation. Firstly, that because of the unprecedented economic growth over the previous fifty years we had become too comfortable and a career in sport would not produce the rewards available in other walks of life; Secondly, the reason for our decline was the lack of sporting facilities particularly in our schools where playing fields were being turned into housing estates.
In a sense there is some truth in every argument but what that doesn't explain is why in the space of a decade there has been such a turnaround in our sporting fortunes. It should always be remembered that whilst the trend up to this time was undoubtedly downward there were some (isolated) achievements including Bannister's 4 minute mile, winning the Football World Cup in 1966, the exploits of Coe and Ovett, Liverpool's and other teams successes in European football whilst not forgetting Steve Redgrave's Olympic achievements. There was one sport where we were regularly being successful and that was in the field of F1 Motor Racing where other than the 1980's Britain has produced at least one World Champion in every decade since the Championship started in the 1950s, Britons have won more championships and races than any other nation and British cars have been equally successful with to this day much of the industry being based in the UK.
So what has changed? As with the reasons for decline the reasons for the upturn are many and various. Two that should be immediately dismissed are that firstly, it couldn't get any worse and to that I'd answer why not? Secondly, the London Olympic effect should also be discounted as we were only awarded them four years ago and yet the upward trend started well before then though this effect may sustain the growth going forward.
There are two key reasons I have identified and the first and foremost has been the movement from the old amateur ethos to a professional approach to sport in this country. Up to the mid 1990's most Olympic sports and Rugby Union were still essentially amateur sports and in this country were run on that basis though other nations had taken more professional approaches but within the bounds of the amateur regulations in place. By becoming more professional in approach, various sports embraced the techniques being employed elsewhere in the world and this has led to an influx of foreign coaches and administrators into our sports but also the utilisation of technology, psychology and any other tool that can turn our sportsmen and women into winners. The success in swimming and Rugby Union where England won the 2003 World Cup and made the final of the 2007 tournament just go to demonstrate how this embrace of professionalism has changed our fortunes.
Of course one aspect of professionalism that should not be ignored is that sports men and women can now embark on a sports career full-time and not have to hold down another job as well. In some sports this can be extremely lucrative and success can breed further success and encourage more money into the sport. It also means that sports stars have become the new rock and pop stars and the celebrity that goes with it which for some budding sportsmen and women is no doubt part of the attraction.
Another reason that can't be underestimated to account for the success is the growth of media coverage of sport whether it be the internet, large sport sections of newspapers and perhaps most important of all Satellite Television, Sky Sports in particular. The benefits this has brought aren't just limited to the huge revenues that can be generated by a sport for its coverage but also the fact that nearly every significant sporting event from anywhere in the world can be watched in real time and our youngsters can watch and think I want to do that. Another benefit is that the coverage can be used as a technology feed by coaches to improve performance.
The most obvious success is football where the formation of the Premier League and Sky Sports' coverage went hand in hand and has led to unprecedented club success in Europe in recent years and huge amounts of foreign investment. I for one never imagined that a footballer could be bought for more money than the budget of a leading F1 team but that is now the reality!
I for one think that this success will continue for some time, despite the current economic conditions because of the two key reasons outlined above but also because as a winning nation success will breed further success and encourage our next generation of sports stars.
We are still only half way through the year and yet trying to identify the ten shortlisted sportsmen and women for BBC's Sports Personality of the Year will be as difficult if not more difficult than last year and choosing a winner at this stage nigh on impossible. Contenders just from the last few days and weeks already include Andrew Flintoff, Andy Murray, Amir Khan, Bradley Wiggins, Jenson Button, Jessica Ennis, Kerry-Anne Payne Mark Cavendish and Tom Daley.
Keep going Britain's sportsmen and women because all of this success certainly makes me cheerful and gives me something to write about.
This decline was reflected in our sporting prowess as a nation and in some sports we have not noticeably recovered e.g. we have not produced a male winner of a Tennis Grand Slam tournament since 1935. Many reasons have been put forward this decline some of which are relevant but what I find more startling is how this decline has been reversed in the first decade of 21st Century.
Perhaps the most compelling reason for the decline is traced back to the shocking casualty toll that Britain experienced in the first world war with a significant proportion of a generation being either killed or wounded. This is of course relevant but it should be remembered that proportionately many other European nations suffered to the same degree and so maybe this just becomes a convenient excuse. This is backed up when you look at the medal tables from the Olympics won by Britons both before the war and immediately afterwards when Britain was typically in the top 5 nations and it was only from 1928 at the Amsterdam Olympics that our trend of targeting the top 10 nations set-in.
Another argument that has been put forward was that we were an idealistic nation enshrined in an amateur ethos. Again there is substance to this view but it should also be remembered that at that time many sports were played on an amateur basis throughout the world and professional sports such as Golf and Football were played in this country as they were elsewhere. Linked with this reason could be that our sport's administrators were enshrined in this ethos and England did not enter Football World Cup's before the war because it was viewed that as a nation we did not need to win a World Cup to prove we were the best.
After the war other excuses started to be used though no doubt our amateur approach still played an important part. These excuses ranged from the lack of investment into sport by Government, particularly in comparison with the Soviet Bloc countries who also weren't afraid to use pharmaceutical methods to improve performance.
There was also the world becoming a smaller place and more countries particularly in the third world focusing on a sport and producing world beaters who became ambassadors for their country - the East African nations in athletics are a good example of this.
As the 20th Century drew to a conclusion another reason put forward was that we were only a small nation (at least by population) in comparison with other countries and that we were dividing our resources to thin across too many sports leading us to becoming a "jack of all trades nation and master of none".
My belief is that we hit the bottom of the trough about the mid 1990's - we failed to qualify for the 1994 Football World Cup & at the 1996 summer Olympics we only managed one gold medal - and two further reasons were put forward for our failure as a sporting nation. Firstly, that because of the unprecedented economic growth over the previous fifty years we had become too comfortable and a career in sport would not produce the rewards available in other walks of life; Secondly, the reason for our decline was the lack of sporting facilities particularly in our schools where playing fields were being turned into housing estates.
In a sense there is some truth in every argument but what that doesn't explain is why in the space of a decade there has been such a turnaround in our sporting fortunes. It should always be remembered that whilst the trend up to this time was undoubtedly downward there were some (isolated) achievements including Bannister's 4 minute mile, winning the Football World Cup in 1966, the exploits of Coe and Ovett, Liverpool's and other teams successes in European football whilst not forgetting Steve Redgrave's Olympic achievements. There was one sport where we were regularly being successful and that was in the field of F1 Motor Racing where other than the 1980's Britain has produced at least one World Champion in every decade since the Championship started in the 1950s, Britons have won more championships and races than any other nation and British cars have been equally successful with to this day much of the industry being based in the UK.
So what has changed? As with the reasons for decline the reasons for the upturn are many and various. Two that should be immediately dismissed are that firstly, it couldn't get any worse and to that I'd answer why not? Secondly, the London Olympic effect should also be discounted as we were only awarded them four years ago and yet the upward trend started well before then though this effect may sustain the growth going forward.
There are two key reasons I have identified and the first and foremost has been the movement from the old amateur ethos to a professional approach to sport in this country. Up to the mid 1990's most Olympic sports and Rugby Union were still essentially amateur sports and in this country were run on that basis though other nations had taken more professional approaches but within the bounds of the amateur regulations in place. By becoming more professional in approach, various sports embraced the techniques being employed elsewhere in the world and this has led to an influx of foreign coaches and administrators into our sports but also the utilisation of technology, psychology and any other tool that can turn our sportsmen and women into winners. The success in swimming and Rugby Union where England won the 2003 World Cup and made the final of the 2007 tournament just go to demonstrate how this embrace of professionalism has changed our fortunes.
Of course one aspect of professionalism that should not be ignored is that sports men and women can now embark on a sports career full-time and not have to hold down another job as well. In some sports this can be extremely lucrative and success can breed further success and encourage more money into the sport. It also means that sports stars have become the new rock and pop stars and the celebrity that goes with it which for some budding sportsmen and women is no doubt part of the attraction.
Another reason that can't be underestimated to account for the success is the growth of media coverage of sport whether it be the internet, large sport sections of newspapers and perhaps most important of all Satellite Television, Sky Sports in particular. The benefits this has brought aren't just limited to the huge revenues that can be generated by a sport for its coverage but also the fact that nearly every significant sporting event from anywhere in the world can be watched in real time and our youngsters can watch and think I want to do that. Another benefit is that the coverage can be used as a technology feed by coaches to improve performance.
The most obvious success is football where the formation of the Premier League and Sky Sports' coverage went hand in hand and has led to unprecedented club success in Europe in recent years and huge amounts of foreign investment. I for one never imagined that a footballer could be bought for more money than the budget of a leading F1 team but that is now the reality!
I for one think that this success will continue for some time, despite the current economic conditions because of the two key reasons outlined above but also because as a winning nation success will breed further success and encourage our next generation of sports stars.
We are still only half way through the year and yet trying to identify the ten shortlisted sportsmen and women for BBC's Sports Personality of the Year will be as difficult if not more difficult than last year and choosing a winner at this stage nigh on impossible. Contenders just from the last few days and weeks already include Andrew Flintoff, Andy Murray, Amir Khan, Bradley Wiggins, Jenson Button, Jessica Ennis, Kerry-Anne Payne Mark Cavendish and Tom Daley.
Keep going Britain's sportsmen and women because all of this success certainly makes me cheerful and gives me something to write about.
Tuesday, 21 July 2009
Mixed Week on the Prediction Front
What a weekend of excitement and drama that only top class sport can provide with records broken and others seriously threatened.
The Ashes Test was the last to come to a conclusion yesterday morning and the script writers didn't disappoint as Andrew "Freddie" Flintoff produced one of the most inspiring bowling performances of his illustrious career to take five Australian wickets and become the first player to appear on the Lord's honour's board for a century and a five wicket haul. He was ably supported by Swann in the final denouement but the performances of Strauss, Cook, Prior and Anderson earlier in the Test all contributed to England's first Ashes win at the home of cricket for 75 years and only the second since the 19th Century - let's hope we don't have to wait until the 22nd Century for the next one! England's heroics of course meant that my prediction of a draw was wrong as was Pieterson to score a century in the match, but I'll live with that.
On Sunday evening we were almost witness to another record being broken at Turnberry at the conclusion of the Open Golf as Tom Watson came within one putt of becoming the oldest winner of a Golf major. Unfortunately it wasn't to be, as he bogeyed the last hole of the tournament and then struggled to compete in the play-off. Congratulations to Cink on winning the tournament but yet again all of the British contenders came up short with both Westwood and Wood matching Watson's achievement of bogeying the last when a par would have got them into the play-off. It is now ten years since Paul Lawrie won the Open and the last time a Briton won a major golf tournament and let's hope it won't be too long before this unwanted record is broken. However, Westwood's third place finish did mean my each-way prediction paid off even if my other two predictions did not even make the cut.
Earlier on Sunday Valentino Rossi won another very close Moto GP race at the Sachsenring in Germany. This has taken him to a total of 101 wins in GP events (125, 250 and Moto GP) and he is closing on de Agostini's overall record but in the meantime has now equalled his record of 158 podium finishes. This season in Moto GP is getting better all the time and for the first time it looks like that Rossi has a team-mate who is not overawed by the great man in Jorge Lorenzo whilst Stoner and Pedrosa are also right in the hunt.
The All Blacks kept up their unbeaten record at Eden Park in Auckland in the Tri-Nations rugby on Saturday but not before Australia had threatened a win. That unfortunately meant my prediction was wrong but it does look it is going to be a closely fought series between the southern hemisphere nations.
On Sunday the Tour de France exploded into life with Alberto Contador again showing his climbing pedigree on the climb to Verbier. He definitely appears to be the man to beat and whilst Armstrong remains in second place he looks beaten this time around with Andy Schleck and Bradley Wiggins perhaps being the two most likely to challenge Contador's pre-eminence in the final week.
The Green Jersey competition also looks done and dusted following the disqualification of Mark Cavendish from Saturday's stage but of course Thor Hushovd has to get to the finish line in Paris first. With Wiggin's performance though the British interest has in no way waned as he could go onto beat Robert Millar's fourth place finish twenty-five years ago to become the highest placed Briton in the history of the tour. My cycling prediction was for last Wednesday's stage which Cavendish duly won taking him to four stage wins for this tour equalling his achievement from last year and Barry Hoban's British record of eight stage wins in total.
Overall I had three correct predictions but because of reasonable odds (particularly in the Golf) meant a profit of £3.50 this week meaning I am now only down £9.50 since I started with these predictions. This week's predictions will be made on Friday and will involve the Hungarian GP, the British Moto GP and cricket's Friends Provident trophy final at Lords.
The Ashes Test was the last to come to a conclusion yesterday morning and the script writers didn't disappoint as Andrew "Freddie" Flintoff produced one of the most inspiring bowling performances of his illustrious career to take five Australian wickets and become the first player to appear on the Lord's honour's board for a century and a five wicket haul. He was ably supported by Swann in the final denouement but the performances of Strauss, Cook, Prior and Anderson earlier in the Test all contributed to England's first Ashes win at the home of cricket for 75 years and only the second since the 19th Century - let's hope we don't have to wait until the 22nd Century for the next one! England's heroics of course meant that my prediction of a draw was wrong as was Pieterson to score a century in the match, but I'll live with that.
On Sunday evening we were almost witness to another record being broken at Turnberry at the conclusion of the Open Golf as Tom Watson came within one putt of becoming the oldest winner of a Golf major. Unfortunately it wasn't to be, as he bogeyed the last hole of the tournament and then struggled to compete in the play-off. Congratulations to Cink on winning the tournament but yet again all of the British contenders came up short with both Westwood and Wood matching Watson's achievement of bogeying the last when a par would have got them into the play-off. It is now ten years since Paul Lawrie won the Open and the last time a Briton won a major golf tournament and let's hope it won't be too long before this unwanted record is broken. However, Westwood's third place finish did mean my each-way prediction paid off even if my other two predictions did not even make the cut.
Earlier on Sunday Valentino Rossi won another very close Moto GP race at the Sachsenring in Germany. This has taken him to a total of 101 wins in GP events (125, 250 and Moto GP) and he is closing on de Agostini's overall record but in the meantime has now equalled his record of 158 podium finishes. This season in Moto GP is getting better all the time and for the first time it looks like that Rossi has a team-mate who is not overawed by the great man in Jorge Lorenzo whilst Stoner and Pedrosa are also right in the hunt.
The All Blacks kept up their unbeaten record at Eden Park in Auckland in the Tri-Nations rugby on Saturday but not before Australia had threatened a win. That unfortunately meant my prediction was wrong but it does look it is going to be a closely fought series between the southern hemisphere nations.
On Sunday the Tour de France exploded into life with Alberto Contador again showing his climbing pedigree on the climb to Verbier. He definitely appears to be the man to beat and whilst Armstrong remains in second place he looks beaten this time around with Andy Schleck and Bradley Wiggins perhaps being the two most likely to challenge Contador's pre-eminence in the final week.
The Green Jersey competition also looks done and dusted following the disqualification of Mark Cavendish from Saturday's stage but of course Thor Hushovd has to get to the finish line in Paris first. With Wiggin's performance though the British interest has in no way waned as he could go onto beat Robert Millar's fourth place finish twenty-five years ago to become the highest placed Briton in the history of the tour. My cycling prediction was for last Wednesday's stage which Cavendish duly won taking him to four stage wins for this tour equalling his achievement from last year and Barry Hoban's British record of eight stage wins in total.
Overall I had three correct predictions but because of reasonable odds (particularly in the Golf) meant a profit of £3.50 this week meaning I am now only down £9.50 since I started with these predictions. This week's predictions will be made on Friday and will involve the Hungarian GP, the British Moto GP and cricket's Friends Provident trophy final at Lords.
Saturday, 18 July 2009
How Old is Too Old?
A question that has been raised by the performances of Tom Watson and Mark Calcavecchia in The Open at Turnberry who at 59 and 49 respectively could go on to become the oldest winner of a Golf Major. The record is currently held by Julius Boros an American who won the US PGA tournament in 1968 at the age of 48.
With the tournament at the halfway stage Watson is in the joint lead and Calcavecchia one shot back in third place. Both of these golfers have won The Open before but I doubt either if them expected to be heading the leaderboard as the tournament went into the weekend. Of course golf may not be as physically demanding as some other sports but even so skills and fitness do wane with age and the fact the record of oldest winner of a major has stood for more than 40 years tells its own story. Last year Greg Norman was in a good position to have become the oldest winner until the last few holes of the tournament when perhaps his age caught up with him but if that were to happen to Watson and Calcavecchia in the next two days there are a couple of 46 year ODs in Jimenez and Singh lurking only two shots back from the lead who could go on to win as well.
In recent years we have got used to most sports being dominated by youth but 2009 has seen something of a change in a range of sports from Cycling to Motor Racing to Rugby. Lance Armstrong came out of retirement to race this year's Tour de France at the age of 37 and after two weeks still has a very good chance of winning. The oldest winner to date of this great event was Firmin Cambot at the age of 36 in 1922 but even if he doesn't win but takes the yellow jersey at some stage in the last week he would become the oldest to do so. Another record that he could equal next Sunday in Paris would be Raymond Poulidor's feat of finishing on the podium 8 times but he'd have to keep racing for a few more years to equal Poulidor's record of finishing on the podium at the age of 40 in 1976.
In football's premier league Ryan Giggs won the player of the year as voted for by his fellow professionals. In comparison to the golfers and even Lance Armstrong he is a young pup at 35. This was the first time that he had won the award even though he has competed in premier league since it's inception in 1992. Another 35 year old who came to prominence in recent weeks was Simon Shaw playing for the British and Irish Lions. This was his third tour with the Lions and he had to play 18 matches before he got his chance in the test team but he certainly showed that age was no barrier with a man of the match performance in the second test and another strong showing in the final winning test. He has been rewarded with a place in the premier England squad for the next year and one would have to think that he must surely be a contender for a World Cup slot in a couple of years time. Unlike golf, football and rugby are far more physically punishing and very few players are ever still at the peak of their game at such an advanced age and still looking forward to more success in the future.
One other ageing performer making waves at the moment is Rubens Barichello in F1. He may not have won a Grand Prix this season but he is still very much in the title race and has no inclination to be the back-up driver to Jenson Button in the Brawn team as he showed by his reaction after the German Grand Prix last weekend. Barichello is 37 which by modern standards in F1 is old and he also has the distinction of having raced in more than Grand Prix than any driver in the history of the sport. Having said that he is still younger than Fangio when he entered the sport at its inception in 1950 and Fangio won his last World Championship in 1957 at the age of 46. Even in recent times both Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost were older than Barichello is now when they won World Championships in 1992 and 1993 respectively and he is only a year older than Damon Hill was when he won his title.
Another motor racer who is still showing that age hasn't dimmed his skills is Mark Martin of NASCAR who won a race earlier this season at the age of 50 and is still often to be seen at forefront of races.
What this shows is that whilst age catches up with your physical prowess some of its effects can be lessened if you have the drive, skill and talent even when you are in your fifties. I for one will be delighted if Watson or Calcavecchia win The Open as records are there to be broken - but I hope it won't be at the expense of a younger Brit!
With the tournament at the halfway stage Watson is in the joint lead and Calcavecchia one shot back in third place. Both of these golfers have won The Open before but I doubt either if them expected to be heading the leaderboard as the tournament went into the weekend. Of course golf may not be as physically demanding as some other sports but even so skills and fitness do wane with age and the fact the record of oldest winner of a major has stood for more than 40 years tells its own story. Last year Greg Norman was in a good position to have become the oldest winner until the last few holes of the tournament when perhaps his age caught up with him but if that were to happen to Watson and Calcavecchia in the next two days there are a couple of 46 year ODs in Jimenez and Singh lurking only two shots back from the lead who could go on to win as well.
In recent years we have got used to most sports being dominated by youth but 2009 has seen something of a change in a range of sports from Cycling to Motor Racing to Rugby. Lance Armstrong came out of retirement to race this year's Tour de France at the age of 37 and after two weeks still has a very good chance of winning. The oldest winner to date of this great event was Firmin Cambot at the age of 36 in 1922 but even if he doesn't win but takes the yellow jersey at some stage in the last week he would become the oldest to do so. Another record that he could equal next Sunday in Paris would be Raymond Poulidor's feat of finishing on the podium 8 times but he'd have to keep racing for a few more years to equal Poulidor's record of finishing on the podium at the age of 40 in 1976.
In football's premier league Ryan Giggs won the player of the year as voted for by his fellow professionals. In comparison to the golfers and even Lance Armstrong he is a young pup at 35. This was the first time that he had won the award even though he has competed in premier league since it's inception in 1992. Another 35 year old who came to prominence in recent weeks was Simon Shaw playing for the British and Irish Lions. This was his third tour with the Lions and he had to play 18 matches before he got his chance in the test team but he certainly showed that age was no barrier with a man of the match performance in the second test and another strong showing in the final winning test. He has been rewarded with a place in the premier England squad for the next year and one would have to think that he must surely be a contender for a World Cup slot in a couple of years time. Unlike golf, football and rugby are far more physically punishing and very few players are ever still at the peak of their game at such an advanced age and still looking forward to more success in the future.
One other ageing performer making waves at the moment is Rubens Barichello in F1. He may not have won a Grand Prix this season but he is still very much in the title race and has no inclination to be the back-up driver to Jenson Button in the Brawn team as he showed by his reaction after the German Grand Prix last weekend. Barichello is 37 which by modern standards in F1 is old and he also has the distinction of having raced in more than Grand Prix than any driver in the history of the sport. Having said that he is still younger than Fangio when he entered the sport at its inception in 1950 and Fangio won his last World Championship in 1957 at the age of 46. Even in recent times both Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost were older than Barichello is now when they won World Championships in 1992 and 1993 respectively and he is only a year older than Damon Hill was when he won his title.
Another motor racer who is still showing that age hasn't dimmed his skills is Mark Martin of NASCAR who won a race earlier this season at the age of 50 and is still often to be seen at forefront of races.
What this shows is that whilst age catches up with your physical prowess some of its effects can be lessened if you have the drive, skill and talent even when you are in your fifties. I for one will be delighted if Watson or Calcavecchia win The Open as records are there to be broken - but I hope it won't be at the expense of a younger Brit!
Friday, 17 July 2009
Football's Silly Season? Or is it?
It only seems like last week that that the football season ended as it has rarely been out of the news, and it is now less than a month to the start of the next season - at least in England.
With the amount of money that Real Madrid started throwing around once the transfer window opened and with the riches available to Manchester City it looked like this was going to be the silliest season in the transfer market for years if not ever. However to date, whilst much money has been spent, the spending has not reached the sort of proportions that could have been expected. Of course the transfer window stays open until the end of August and so this could just be a calm before the storm scenario but I am starting to think that maybe Chairmen are reigning in the purse strings in the current economic climate.
Sir Alex Ferguson has already stated that the spending at Manchester United is complete which means that they have made a tidy profit from the sale of Ronaldo which no doubt is pleasing to the Glazer family. Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal of the other big three teams have all made signings but nothing to compare with the scale of Manchester City in the Premier League.
As a Spurs supporter I have got used to them being linked with just about every player on the market but that has not been the case this year - even with the ultimate wheeler-dealer Harry Redknapp at the helm this summer. Of the other teams challenging the Big 4 oligopoly Aston Villa have signed Stuart Downing but Everton, Fulham and West Ham have all been fairly quiet to date with Sunderland and their new Chairman seeming to be the only team prepared to spend big bucks this summer.
I mentioned above that some of this may be down to Chairmen restricting the budgets of their managers because of the current recession and any purchases having to be balanced by sales. However, there could be footballing reasons behind the lack of activity. Most of the top managers have been around for a long time at the top of the game and may have noticed that buying a team does not guarantee success but it is better to develop existing squads. If we look at the history of the premier league Blackburn was a team that was bought for the purpose of winning the leage which it did once and then faded away. The only other team that was bought was Chelsea but probably to a lesser extent as the team had been being built before Mourinho's arrival and was already firmly established in the Top 4 and therefore in the Champions League before Abramovich's billions became available - at the time considered to be why he bought the team in the first place.
If we look again at the history of the premier league there have only been two managers who have built teams over time and they have been the most successful - Ferguson and Wenger. Whilst both have bought big names the vast majority of their players have either been developed "in-house" or bought young and slightly unproven so that they could be developed. This has had two key benefits. Firstly, the teams have matured together and secondly they always seem to make a big profit when they sell a player on.
The final thing I have noticed is that much of the money being spent by premier league clubs seems to be on purchases from other English clubs - mainly other premier league sides or championship clubs. Of course the reason for this could be down to the current strength of the Euro versus Pound Sterling but whatever the reason it has to be good for English football as should help further investment in the academies.
So other than Manchester City - where Mark Hughes is apparently taking a Kevin Keegan approach to squad building by only buying strikers - the transfer policies of most premier league clubs is quite sensible for a change. I do recognise that these words might come back to haunt me but just maybe they won't.
With the amount of money that Real Madrid started throwing around once the transfer window opened and with the riches available to Manchester City it looked like this was going to be the silliest season in the transfer market for years if not ever. However to date, whilst much money has been spent, the spending has not reached the sort of proportions that could have been expected. Of course the transfer window stays open until the end of August and so this could just be a calm before the storm scenario but I am starting to think that maybe Chairmen are reigning in the purse strings in the current economic climate.
Sir Alex Ferguson has already stated that the spending at Manchester United is complete which means that they have made a tidy profit from the sale of Ronaldo which no doubt is pleasing to the Glazer family. Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal of the other big three teams have all made signings but nothing to compare with the scale of Manchester City in the Premier League.
As a Spurs supporter I have got used to them being linked with just about every player on the market but that has not been the case this year - even with the ultimate wheeler-dealer Harry Redknapp at the helm this summer. Of the other teams challenging the Big 4 oligopoly Aston Villa have signed Stuart Downing but Everton, Fulham and West Ham have all been fairly quiet to date with Sunderland and their new Chairman seeming to be the only team prepared to spend big bucks this summer.
I mentioned above that some of this may be down to Chairmen restricting the budgets of their managers because of the current recession and any purchases having to be balanced by sales. However, there could be footballing reasons behind the lack of activity. Most of the top managers have been around for a long time at the top of the game and may have noticed that buying a team does not guarantee success but it is better to develop existing squads. If we look at the history of the premier league Blackburn was a team that was bought for the purpose of winning the leage which it did once and then faded away. The only other team that was bought was Chelsea but probably to a lesser extent as the team had been being built before Mourinho's arrival and was already firmly established in the Top 4 and therefore in the Champions League before Abramovich's billions became available - at the time considered to be why he bought the team in the first place.
If we look again at the history of the premier league there have only been two managers who have built teams over time and they have been the most successful - Ferguson and Wenger. Whilst both have bought big names the vast majority of their players have either been developed "in-house" or bought young and slightly unproven so that they could be developed. This has had two key benefits. Firstly, the teams have matured together and secondly they always seem to make a big profit when they sell a player on.
The final thing I have noticed is that much of the money being spent by premier league clubs seems to be on purchases from other English clubs - mainly other premier league sides or championship clubs. Of course the reason for this could be down to the current strength of the Euro versus Pound Sterling but whatever the reason it has to be good for English football as should help further investment in the academies.
So other than Manchester City - where Mark Hughes is apparently taking a Kevin Keegan approach to squad building by only buying strikers - the transfer policies of most premier league clubs is quite sensible for a change. I do recognise that these words might come back to haunt me but just maybe they won't.
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Predictions for the weekend
Starting early this week as two of the biggest sporting events that take place on British soil get underway tomorrow - The Open Championship and the Ashes Test at Lords.
Like most of the pundits I am not going to make a radical prediction for the winner of the Open at Turnberry as I am predicting Tiger Woods. The only (slight) disadvantage that Tiger has is that it is not a course he has played before, because it last hosted the Open in 1994 before his burgeoning talent had burst onto the scene.
I am going for two each-way bets (paying down to eighth place) and though it is more in hope than expectation of a British win in a major for the first time in ten years, the two predictions are for the Englishmen Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood.
With the excitement having died down from last weekend's Ashes Test in Cardiff, the next installment begins at the home of English cricket tomorrow (subject to the weather of course). It is 75 years and 19 matches since England last won an Ashes Test at Lords and so it would be remiss of me to predict them as winners though records are there to be broken. Therefore, and taking the weather forecast into account I am predicting a draw which following England's escape on Sunday would probably be better for them than the Aussies.
To make the predictions for this Test a bit more interesting (the cricket doesn't need to be) I am also going to predict that Kevin Pietersen will make a century in the match, assuming he doesn't throw away his wicket when well set as is his wont! Breaking news is that Freddie Flintoff has arranged for a press conference later today and I hope that the news is not bad and that he will be fit both for this test and the remainder of the series, maybe announcing his retirement after the series, though again I hope not.
International Rugby Union is back on Saturday with the beginning of the tri-nations and the first match between the New Zealand All Blacks and the Australian Wallabies. Though the match is in Auckland I am going for a Wallaby win based on what I saw during their earlier tests this summer and whilst McCaw is back for the All Blacks there back-line doesn't look that potent without Dan Carter - no doubt famous last words!
The Moto GP season resumes at the Sachsenring in Germany this weekend and like predicting Tiger Woods in the golf I am sticking with another great champion of the last decade (if not all time) and predicting a Valentino Rossi win.
Final prediction for the weekend is the Tour de France which is continuing in earnest across the middle of the country. The tour is in it's "calm before the storm" stage at the moment as the riders head towards the Alps and Mont Ventoux where the winner will no doubt come to the fore. As such I am predicting another Mark Cavendish win in today's fairly flat stage which will enable him to equal Barry Hoban's British record that has stood since 1975 of 8 tour stage victories.
That's it for this week and in summary the predictions are as follows:
The Open Championship
Tiger Woods to win at 13/5
Ian Poulter Each Way at 30/1 (paying first 8 places)
Lee Westwood Each Way at 28/1 (paying first 8 places)
The Ashes Test at Lords
England and Australia to draw at 20/19
Kevin Pietersen to hit a century in the test at 7/2
Tri-Nations Rugby
Australia to beat New Zealand in Auckland at 6/4
Moto GP in Germany
Rossi to win at 6/5
Tour de France (Stage 11)
Cavendish to win at 9/4
Like most of the pundits I am not going to make a radical prediction for the winner of the Open at Turnberry as I am predicting Tiger Woods. The only (slight) disadvantage that Tiger has is that it is not a course he has played before, because it last hosted the Open in 1994 before his burgeoning talent had burst onto the scene.
I am going for two each-way bets (paying down to eighth place) and though it is more in hope than expectation of a British win in a major for the first time in ten years, the two predictions are for the Englishmen Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood.
With the excitement having died down from last weekend's Ashes Test in Cardiff, the next installment begins at the home of English cricket tomorrow (subject to the weather of course). It is 75 years and 19 matches since England last won an Ashes Test at Lords and so it would be remiss of me to predict them as winners though records are there to be broken. Therefore, and taking the weather forecast into account I am predicting a draw which following England's escape on Sunday would probably be better for them than the Aussies.
To make the predictions for this Test a bit more interesting (the cricket doesn't need to be) I am also going to predict that Kevin Pietersen will make a century in the match, assuming he doesn't throw away his wicket when well set as is his wont! Breaking news is that Freddie Flintoff has arranged for a press conference later today and I hope that the news is not bad and that he will be fit both for this test and the remainder of the series, maybe announcing his retirement after the series, though again I hope not.
International Rugby Union is back on Saturday with the beginning of the tri-nations and the first match between the New Zealand All Blacks and the Australian Wallabies. Though the match is in Auckland I am going for a Wallaby win based on what I saw during their earlier tests this summer and whilst McCaw is back for the All Blacks there back-line doesn't look that potent without Dan Carter - no doubt famous last words!
The Moto GP season resumes at the Sachsenring in Germany this weekend and like predicting Tiger Woods in the golf I am sticking with another great champion of the last decade (if not all time) and predicting a Valentino Rossi win.
Final prediction for the weekend is the Tour de France which is continuing in earnest across the middle of the country. The tour is in it's "calm before the storm" stage at the moment as the riders head towards the Alps and Mont Ventoux where the winner will no doubt come to the fore. As such I am predicting another Mark Cavendish win in today's fairly flat stage which will enable him to equal Barry Hoban's British record that has stood since 1975 of 8 tour stage victories.
That's it for this week and in summary the predictions are as follows:
The Open Championship
Tiger Woods to win at 13/5
Ian Poulter Each Way at 30/1 (paying first 8 places)
Lee Westwood Each Way at 28/1 (paying first 8 places)
The Ashes Test at Lords
England and Australia to draw at 20/19
Kevin Pietersen to hit a century in the test at 7/2
Tri-Nations Rugby
Australia to beat New Zealand in Auckland at 6/4
Moto GP in Germany
Rossi to win at 6/5
Tour de France (Stage 11)
Cavendish to win at 9/4
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Sex, Lies and Handlebar Tape - a book review
Something different today as this is my first book review. The reason for this is because we are rapidly approaching the holiday season and we all need something to distract us from the sun, sea and sangria - oh and the kids!
The book I have chosen is Sex, Lies and Handlebar Tape by Paul Howard and is an excellent biography of the first man to win the Tour de France on five occasions - Jacques Anquetil. Obviously whilst this year's tour is in progress it is topical to chose this book but my main reason is that whilst this is a biography, Anqeutil's life reads like a DH Lawrence novel and goes to show that fact nearly always produces a better story than fiction.
The book is excellently written and researched which makes it very hard to put down as any good book should. As well as covering the motivation and dedication that took Anquetil to not just his multiple tour wins but also his successes in the Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a Espana (the first to win all three of the Grand Tours), it covers his laissez-faire attitude to drug use, his relationship with his main rival Raymond Poulidor and the fact the supporters of these two riders divided not just cycling fans but the French nation.
Of course whilst this all very interesting it is his "private" life that will have you enthralled from the affair and subsequent marriage to his doctor's wife, the child with her step-daughter and then the affair and child with his stepson's wife. If it had been written as a novel it would be considered too preposterous to be taken seriously and I haven't even mentioned his dietary intake during a tour.
Hopefully, that has whetted your appetite as whilst this is a factual book it is better than fiction and well worth a read. The book was published by Mainstream Publishing in 2008 and my copy is in Hardback and I am not sure if it is yet available in paperback.
The book I have chosen is Sex, Lies and Handlebar Tape by Paul Howard and is an excellent biography of the first man to win the Tour de France on five occasions - Jacques Anquetil. Obviously whilst this year's tour is in progress it is topical to chose this book but my main reason is that whilst this is a biography, Anqeutil's life reads like a DH Lawrence novel and goes to show that fact nearly always produces a better story than fiction.
The book is excellently written and researched which makes it very hard to put down as any good book should. As well as covering the motivation and dedication that took Anquetil to not just his multiple tour wins but also his successes in the Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a Espana (the first to win all three of the Grand Tours), it covers his laissez-faire attitude to drug use, his relationship with his main rival Raymond Poulidor and the fact the supporters of these two riders divided not just cycling fans but the French nation.
Of course whilst this all very interesting it is his "private" life that will have you enthralled from the affair and subsequent marriage to his doctor's wife, the child with her step-daughter and then the affair and child with his stepson's wife. If it had been written as a novel it would be considered too preposterous to be taken seriously and I haven't even mentioned his dietary intake during a tour.
Hopefully, that has whetted your appetite as whilst this is a factual book it is better than fiction and well worth a read. The book was published by Mainstream Publishing in 2008 and my copy is in Hardback and I am not sure if it is yet available in paperback.
Monday, 13 July 2009
Aussie Success & Frustration
What a climax to the first Ashes test of the summer which from Saturday morning onwards had looked like being an easy Australia win, but in the end was a draw from which the England side can hopefully build upon.
It meant my prediction was wrong as I had gone for an England victory but after the first couple of days had imagined that the game would peter out to a draw with much of the last two days being lost to rain. As we know the rain never properly materialised and with the awesome Australia batting performance (a fair description considering four of their batsmen scored centuries which is the first time they have achieved that feat in an Ashes test), it was clear that the English would have to battle hard just to draw. For much of the last day it appeared they would not be up to the task and I for one would not have put money on Anderson and Panesar holding out for the last 45 minutes.
Roll-on Thursday and the next installment of the series at Lords where England have not won for 75 years in an Ashes test but then records are there to be broken though I am not sure the two teams can conjure up the drama and excitement as witnessed yesterday afternoon.
One Australian who did succeed this weekend was Mark Webber who led a Red Bull one two in the German Grand Prix. It was a superb drive, especially considering that he had to take a drive-through penalty after his collision with Barichello off the start line. After taking pole position on Saturday in changing conditions it was fair reward to a great driver and it will be interesting if he can now challenge his teammate (Vettel) and the two Brawn drivers for the driver's championship this season.
Webber's win produced a couple of interesting statistics. Firstly, in the sixty years of F1 racing he has had to wait longer for his his first win than any other driver (in terms of Grand Prix starts), a record that he took from Rubens Barichello. In the last few years the sport would appear to have become more of a young man's sport with the likes of Alonso, Hamilton, Kubica and Vettel but following Webber and Barichello in the list of longest wait for a Grand Prix victory are three other current drivers - Trulli at Toyota, Button at Brawn and Fisichella at Force India - showing that experience is still very important in getting (or keeping) a drive in F1. In addition one other driver on the grid yesterday (Nick Heidfeld) went past Martin Brundle's record of driving 158 Grand Prix without victory and is now second on the all-time list.
The second statistic should perhaps be more worrying to Jenson Button and the Brawn team and that is whilst Webber is only the third driver from Australia to win a Grand Prix, the other two, Sir Jack Brabham and Alan Jones went on to become World Champions!
As for my other predictions in the race Button failed to make the podium as his Brawn car was significantly off the pace again this weekend though he still has a fairly comfortable lead in the driver's championship. Hamilton's McLaren certainly seems to have made progress and it was disappointing to see him get a puncture as he clashed with Webber's car off the start which effectively ruined his race meaning he was last of the finishers. Hopefully, this up-turn in performance will continue for him for the rest of the season and it will be great to see him challenging at the front end of races.
Another Australian to feel frustrated over the weekend was Cadel Evans in the Tour de France. Having finished second in the last two installments of this great race he is down the general classification this time round because of his team's (relatively) poor performance in the team trial. The main contenders largely played a waiting game over the last couple of days through the Pyrenees as both stages finished after long descents rather than at the top of climbs. Whilst Evans tried to take the initiative on Saturday's stage it was not popular with his fellow escapees as they knew it would provoke a reaction from the main contenders who would chase down their breakaway and ruin their chances of a stage victory. Evans aware of this ended his attempt to gain time and waited to be caught by the main peloton. On Sunday there was no real break attempted by any of the main contenders and following today's rest day it is likely that the overall classification will not change too much until the race enters the Alps next week.
Whilst on the subject of Le Tour I must mention my admiration for Bradley Wiggins who is still in fifth place after the Pyrenees and must now surely start to be considered as a real contender for overall victory, and there I was thinking that the only Brit likely to offer us much cheer would be Cavendish in his collecting of stage wins and challenging for the Green Jersey. Would it be too outrageous to think of last year's Olympic track Madison pairing in Green and Yellow Jerseys in Paris in a couple of weeks time!
As for my prediction of an Andy Schleck win on Friday this was not to happen but maybe his turn will come in the Alps or on the ascent of Mont Ventoux.
My final prediction for the weekend was that Ian Poulter would finish in the Top 10 at the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond. Unfortunately, he fell away in the last round but the winner Martin Kaymer must be happy with his second win in eight days and bank balance improved by more than €1 million over his last two tournaments. Of course The Open starts on Thursday and will it be time for a British winner for the first time since 1996?
A great weekend of sport with plenty of drama but only one correct prediction (Webber's Grand Prix win). However, the odds were good on that prediction and so I ended the week only 50p down meaning that my total losses since I started in March stand at £13.
It meant my prediction was wrong as I had gone for an England victory but after the first couple of days had imagined that the game would peter out to a draw with much of the last two days being lost to rain. As we know the rain never properly materialised and with the awesome Australia batting performance (a fair description considering four of their batsmen scored centuries which is the first time they have achieved that feat in an Ashes test), it was clear that the English would have to battle hard just to draw. For much of the last day it appeared they would not be up to the task and I for one would not have put money on Anderson and Panesar holding out for the last 45 minutes.
Roll-on Thursday and the next installment of the series at Lords where England have not won for 75 years in an Ashes test but then records are there to be broken though I am not sure the two teams can conjure up the drama and excitement as witnessed yesterday afternoon.
One Australian who did succeed this weekend was Mark Webber who led a Red Bull one two in the German Grand Prix. It was a superb drive, especially considering that he had to take a drive-through penalty after his collision with Barichello off the start line. After taking pole position on Saturday in changing conditions it was fair reward to a great driver and it will be interesting if he can now challenge his teammate (Vettel) and the two Brawn drivers for the driver's championship this season.
Webber's win produced a couple of interesting statistics. Firstly, in the sixty years of F1 racing he has had to wait longer for his his first win than any other driver (in terms of Grand Prix starts), a record that he took from Rubens Barichello. In the last few years the sport would appear to have become more of a young man's sport with the likes of Alonso, Hamilton, Kubica and Vettel but following Webber and Barichello in the list of longest wait for a Grand Prix victory are three other current drivers - Trulli at Toyota, Button at Brawn and Fisichella at Force India - showing that experience is still very important in getting (or keeping) a drive in F1. In addition one other driver on the grid yesterday (Nick Heidfeld) went past Martin Brundle's record of driving 158 Grand Prix without victory and is now second on the all-time list.
The second statistic should perhaps be more worrying to Jenson Button and the Brawn team and that is whilst Webber is only the third driver from Australia to win a Grand Prix, the other two, Sir Jack Brabham and Alan Jones went on to become World Champions!
As for my other predictions in the race Button failed to make the podium as his Brawn car was significantly off the pace again this weekend though he still has a fairly comfortable lead in the driver's championship. Hamilton's McLaren certainly seems to have made progress and it was disappointing to see him get a puncture as he clashed with Webber's car off the start which effectively ruined his race meaning he was last of the finishers. Hopefully, this up-turn in performance will continue for him for the rest of the season and it will be great to see him challenging at the front end of races.
Another Australian to feel frustrated over the weekend was Cadel Evans in the Tour de France. Having finished second in the last two installments of this great race he is down the general classification this time round because of his team's (relatively) poor performance in the team trial. The main contenders largely played a waiting game over the last couple of days through the Pyrenees as both stages finished after long descents rather than at the top of climbs. Whilst Evans tried to take the initiative on Saturday's stage it was not popular with his fellow escapees as they knew it would provoke a reaction from the main contenders who would chase down their breakaway and ruin their chances of a stage victory. Evans aware of this ended his attempt to gain time and waited to be caught by the main peloton. On Sunday there was no real break attempted by any of the main contenders and following today's rest day it is likely that the overall classification will not change too much until the race enters the Alps next week.
Whilst on the subject of Le Tour I must mention my admiration for Bradley Wiggins who is still in fifth place after the Pyrenees and must now surely start to be considered as a real contender for overall victory, and there I was thinking that the only Brit likely to offer us much cheer would be Cavendish in his collecting of stage wins and challenging for the Green Jersey. Would it be too outrageous to think of last year's Olympic track Madison pairing in Green and Yellow Jerseys in Paris in a couple of weeks time!
As for my prediction of an Andy Schleck win on Friday this was not to happen but maybe his turn will come in the Alps or on the ascent of Mont Ventoux.
My final prediction for the weekend was that Ian Poulter would finish in the Top 10 at the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond. Unfortunately, he fell away in the last round but the winner Martin Kaymer must be happy with his second win in eight days and bank balance improved by more than €1 million over his last two tournaments. Of course The Open starts on Thursday and will it be time for a British winner for the first time since 1996?
A great weekend of sport with plenty of drama but only one correct prediction (Webber's Grand Prix win). However, the odds were good on that prediction and so I ended the week only 50p down meaning that my total losses since I started in March stand at £13.
Friday, 10 July 2009
Contador Comes to Life and Brits Stay at the Forefront
This year's Tour de France continues to provide great sporting action and just maybe today we learnt that Contador is the man who will lead Astana, but then tomorrow may be all will change again!
The Brits continue to show prominently with Millar making a brave break and only being chased down with a kilometre to go yesterday. Cavendish came past him in the main peloton and whilst he didn't have enough energy to challenge Hushovd for the stage victory he did enough to retain his Green Jersey. He is yet to cross the line as I write this but he should retain that jersey again till tomorrow and maybe beyond as it is another mountain stage tomorrow.
However, the real British story was that Bradley Wiggins finished with all of the major contenders only 20 seconds behind Contador and is now up to fifth overall and his hopes of a top 15 finish for the whole tour is looking very real - why not aim higher Bradley!
The big story tomorrow will be whether Armstrong starts to ride for Contador now or really believes that he can win still win as he is only two seconds behind his teammate.
The Brits continue to show prominently with Millar making a brave break and only being chased down with a kilometre to go yesterday. Cavendish came past him in the main peloton and whilst he didn't have enough energy to challenge Hushovd for the stage victory he did enough to retain his Green Jersey. He is yet to cross the line as I write this but he should retain that jersey again till tomorrow and maybe beyond as it is another mountain stage tomorrow.
However, the real British story was that Bradley Wiggins finished with all of the major contenders only 20 seconds behind Contador and is now up to fifth overall and his hopes of a top 15 finish for the whole tour is looking very real - why not aim higher Bradley!
The big story tomorrow will be whether Armstrong starts to ride for Contador now or really believes that he can win still win as he is only two seconds behind his teammate.
Injuries, Luck, Officaldom and the Benefit of Hindsight!
The Ashes have started and the Lions tour is over and we now have the benefit if not the wisdom of hindsight to review how the Lions could have returned victorious to the British Isles.
The tour finished with a record equalling victory for the Lions over the World Champion Springboks but it was only a consolation prize for the tourists as they had narrowly lost the first two tests. There are many reasons that could be attributed to the loss of the test series and whilst I will take some of them in isolation they are interwoven.
My first thought harks back to a post I made when the original tour party was announced and O'Connell was named as captain. At the time I wasn't sure that O'Connell was guaranteed his place in the team and that perhaps the only player before the tour started who was, was his national captain O'Driscoll. Whilst O'Connell led from the front and played well I am not sure he was one of the best two second rows on the tour and the reason he played in all three tests was because he was captain and not necessarily because he was one of the best 15 players. Perhaps in future the tour management need to either not name a tour captain or be absolutely confident that the player they do name will fully and without question justify his place in the team.
Secondly, when the tour party was announced there were not too many surprises but what appeared obvious was that the forwards in particular had been selected not necessarily for mobility but because of the power they would be able to provide in the set-piece. What then happened was that in the preliminary tour matches the set-piece was solid and the main question the forwards needed to address was the breakdown area. Part of this false sense of security lay in the approach taken by the Springbok management in not allowing any of their squad to play in these tour matches and as well as this influencing the team selection for the first test it also led to half-empty stadia as the locals were less inclined to watch their teams without the star players.
At the time of the selection of the first test team I had been succoured in as well as I had broadly selected the 22 the made up the test squad but what happened in the first half of that game showed that the set-piece was a significant weakness. This was where the management made a big error in that they should have changed the scrum after the first twenty minutes but delayed until the game was as good as lost. If earlier action had been taken (i.e. Vickery and possibly Wyn-Jones being substituted) then the Lions would not have been so far behind after 50 minutes and whilst they dominated the last 30 minutes of the game it was just too much for them to get back for the win.
There were two key factors in the loss of the second test. The first was that Burger should have been shown a red-card following his first minute eye-gouge of Fitzgerald and had the Lions played against 14 men for the whole game they would surely have won. The second factor was early in the second half when in the space of a few minutes the Lions lost both props and centres to injury. At the time they were winning and had the advantage in the scrum and at least parity in the line-out. Having to go to uncontested scrums played into the South African hands and was a definite contribution to Habana's try. What then disappointed me was the following week when both sides named 5 forwards amongst their substitutes but neither named full front row cover and as I've said before this needs to be addressed because there is no room for uncontested scrums in international rugby.
The other aspect that officialdom played in the second test was the video official awarding of the final Springbok try which could not have been 100% proved by any of the camera angles.
In these instances luck went against the Lions but unfortunately that is never a defence for losing a game in any sport as over time it will tend to equalise itself out, even in the period of a match.
In the final test pretty much everything went the way of the Lions and as I had previously suspected the back-up players in the Lions squad were better than those in the South African team.
Of course there were a number of revelations of the tour, the first and foremost being Kearney but others to enhance their reputations were Roberts, Bowe, Phillips, Croft (why he wasn't in the original squad still astounds me), Shaw, Jenkins and following his performance in the final test Heaslip. In addition O'Driscoll yet again showed his class and "pound for pound" is probably the best rugby player in the world at present and whilst he has already gone into legendary status by leading Ireland to their first Grand Slam in 60 years and as a key member of the Leinster team that won the Heineken Cup, it was a shame he couldn't finish the season as a Lions test winner.
In conclusion if the Lions can seriously challenge for a test series win in Australia in four years, the team management need to make tough decisions when needed, the hosts should be forced to make their strongest teams play in the preliminary tour matches - these are one off tours and the only true rugby tour that still exists. Finally, the rules of the game need to be adhered to even if it means sending a player from the pitch in the first minute of a game.
Roll on 2013!!
The tour finished with a record equalling victory for the Lions over the World Champion Springboks but it was only a consolation prize for the tourists as they had narrowly lost the first two tests. There are many reasons that could be attributed to the loss of the test series and whilst I will take some of them in isolation they are interwoven.
My first thought harks back to a post I made when the original tour party was announced and O'Connell was named as captain. At the time I wasn't sure that O'Connell was guaranteed his place in the team and that perhaps the only player before the tour started who was, was his national captain O'Driscoll. Whilst O'Connell led from the front and played well I am not sure he was one of the best two second rows on the tour and the reason he played in all three tests was because he was captain and not necessarily because he was one of the best 15 players. Perhaps in future the tour management need to either not name a tour captain or be absolutely confident that the player they do name will fully and without question justify his place in the team.
Secondly, when the tour party was announced there were not too many surprises but what appeared obvious was that the forwards in particular had been selected not necessarily for mobility but because of the power they would be able to provide in the set-piece. What then happened was that in the preliminary tour matches the set-piece was solid and the main question the forwards needed to address was the breakdown area. Part of this false sense of security lay in the approach taken by the Springbok management in not allowing any of their squad to play in these tour matches and as well as this influencing the team selection for the first test it also led to half-empty stadia as the locals were less inclined to watch their teams without the star players.
At the time of the selection of the first test team I had been succoured in as well as I had broadly selected the 22 the made up the test squad but what happened in the first half of that game showed that the set-piece was a significant weakness. This was where the management made a big error in that they should have changed the scrum after the first twenty minutes but delayed until the game was as good as lost. If earlier action had been taken (i.e. Vickery and possibly Wyn-Jones being substituted) then the Lions would not have been so far behind after 50 minutes and whilst they dominated the last 30 minutes of the game it was just too much for them to get back for the win.
There were two key factors in the loss of the second test. The first was that Burger should have been shown a red-card following his first minute eye-gouge of Fitzgerald and had the Lions played against 14 men for the whole game they would surely have won. The second factor was early in the second half when in the space of a few minutes the Lions lost both props and centres to injury. At the time they were winning and had the advantage in the scrum and at least parity in the line-out. Having to go to uncontested scrums played into the South African hands and was a definite contribution to Habana's try. What then disappointed me was the following week when both sides named 5 forwards amongst their substitutes but neither named full front row cover and as I've said before this needs to be addressed because there is no room for uncontested scrums in international rugby.
The other aspect that officialdom played in the second test was the video official awarding of the final Springbok try which could not have been 100% proved by any of the camera angles.
In these instances luck went against the Lions but unfortunately that is never a defence for losing a game in any sport as over time it will tend to equalise itself out, even in the period of a match.
In the final test pretty much everything went the way of the Lions and as I had previously suspected the back-up players in the Lions squad were better than those in the South African team.
Of course there were a number of revelations of the tour, the first and foremost being Kearney but others to enhance their reputations were Roberts, Bowe, Phillips, Croft (why he wasn't in the original squad still astounds me), Shaw, Jenkins and following his performance in the final test Heaslip. In addition O'Driscoll yet again showed his class and "pound for pound" is probably the best rugby player in the world at present and whilst he has already gone into legendary status by leading Ireland to their first Grand Slam in 60 years and as a key member of the Leinster team that won the Heineken Cup, it was a shame he couldn't finish the season as a Lions test winner.
In conclusion if the Lions can seriously challenge for a test series win in Australia in four years, the team management need to make tough decisions when needed, the hosts should be forced to make their strongest teams play in the preliminary tour matches - these are one off tours and the only true rugby tour that still exists. Finally, the rules of the game need to be adhered to even if it means sending a player from the pitch in the first minute of a game.
Roll on 2013!!
Prediction Time Again
Though England have had a better session this morning with the second new ball I think that the first Ashes test will be beaten by the miserable weather forecast for the weekend but we England fans can still hope.
It is a fairly quiet weekend in terms of major sporting events and currently no rugby or football with which to bulk up my predictions. Having said that the sport that will be going on is of an exceptional nature and in addition to the cricket the Tour de France goes into the Pyreneean mountains today, the F1 Circus resumes at the famous Nurburgring and there is the Scottish Open Golf at Loch Lomond.
As for the Tour de France I am going for Andy Schleck to gain a top three finish in Andorra today when the tour reaches its highest point of this year's event. The real story that will unfold this weekend is how the Astana team fair and will a definite leader of the team come to the fore. Armstrong will see today as a great opportunity to become the oldest wearer of the famous yellow jersey but that assumes his teammates will not attack him.
The Nurburgring has been sanitised over the years and bears little resemblance to the track where the famous races of the sixties and seventies took place but even so it is still a challenging circuit for the drivers and the "home" event for the likes of Mercedes and BMW. Unfortunately, I don't think the Mclaren Mercedes or BMW teams will be fighting for the podium but I will predict Hamilton for a points finish this weekend. However, Mercedes should have something to cheer with the Brawn team and I predict that Button will podium and my final prediction for the race is a debut win for Webber though his Red Bull teammate, Vettel, may have something to say about that at his home race.
Final prediction for the weekend is for the Scottish Open Golf at Loch Lomond which is the last chance for the contenders to hone their skills before the Open at Turnberry next weekend. I am aware that this tournament is already underway but after the first round I am predicting a Poulter Top 10 finish.
In summary my predictions are as follows:
Tour de France
Andy Schleck for a Top 3 finish in Andorra at 13/8
F1 German Grand Prix
Webber to win at 9/2
Button to podium at 2/5
Hamilton to score points at 9/4
Scottish Open Golf
Poulter to finish in top 10 at 6/5
It is a fairly quiet weekend in terms of major sporting events and currently no rugby or football with which to bulk up my predictions. Having said that the sport that will be going on is of an exceptional nature and in addition to the cricket the Tour de France goes into the Pyreneean mountains today, the F1 Circus resumes at the famous Nurburgring and there is the Scottish Open Golf at Loch Lomond.
As for the Tour de France I am going for Andy Schleck to gain a top three finish in Andorra today when the tour reaches its highest point of this year's event. The real story that will unfold this weekend is how the Astana team fair and will a definite leader of the team come to the fore. Armstrong will see today as a great opportunity to become the oldest wearer of the famous yellow jersey but that assumes his teammates will not attack him.
The Nurburgring has been sanitised over the years and bears little resemblance to the track where the famous races of the sixties and seventies took place but even so it is still a challenging circuit for the drivers and the "home" event for the likes of Mercedes and BMW. Unfortunately, I don't think the Mclaren Mercedes or BMW teams will be fighting for the podium but I will predict Hamilton for a points finish this weekend. However, Mercedes should have something to cheer with the Brawn team and I predict that Button will podium and my final prediction for the race is a debut win for Webber though his Red Bull teammate, Vettel, may have something to say about that at his home race.
Final prediction for the weekend is for the Scottish Open Golf at Loch Lomond which is the last chance for the contenders to hone their skills before the Open at Turnberry next weekend. I am aware that this tournament is already underway but after the first round I am predicting a Poulter Top 10 finish.
In summary my predictions are as follows:
Tour de France
Andy Schleck for a Top 3 finish in Andorra at 13/8
F1 German Grand Prix
Webber to win at 9/2
Button to podium at 2/5
Hamilton to score points at 9/4
Scottish Open Golf
Poulter to finish in top 10 at 6/5
Tuesday, 7 July 2009
Armstrong's Script Writer Fails in the Final Second
After yesterday's heroics by Lance Armstrong to get into the split in the peloton and shadow the yellow jersey holder (Fabian Cancellera), he and his Astana team failed by a few hundredths of a second to put Armstong back in the Maillot Jaune at his third coming in the tour.
In four stages so far the tour hasn't warmed up but gone to white hot immediately and it is still a few days away from the mountain stages that will define this year's tour and will probably determine the winner with only one more time trial stage to go. Sometimes a sporting event fails to live up to its billing but this Tour de France is not one of those events. Much of the interest before the race centred on the return of Armstrong to the tour for the first time since 2005 and the fact that he was teamed with Alberto Contador the 2007 winner who did not participate in the event last year.
First blood went to Contador with his second place finish in the initial time-trial with Armstong only tenth overall and fourth amongst his team. Sunday's stage panned out as expected with it coming down to a sprint and a superb win by Briton Mark Cavendish placing him in the Green Jersey for the most consistent finisher.
Yesterday (Monday) produced the special brand of excitement that only the Tour de France can produce when after an initial break-away had been gathered up the peloton split into two a few kilometres before the finish led by Cavendish's Columbia team with Cancellera making the break along with Armstrong but most of the remainder of Armstrong's Astana team missed the break and this allowed him to move up to third position overall and become the best placed of his team - Cavendish won the stage securing an even firmer grip on his green jersey. This was a move that either hinted of Armstrong's excellent race-craft or more sinisterly the breaking up of the team that was supposed to be supporting Contador.
Whatever was happening would soon become apparent today with the return of the team-trial to the Tour for the first time since Armstrong last rode and it would indicate if all of the big names in the Astana team could work as a team. This they surely could and for most of the race whilst it was assured they would win the stage it was not so sure that Armstrong would take the coveted Maillot Jaune. This was because Cancellera was not going to give it up easily and literally single handedly led his team throughout the 25 mile stage and whilst Armstrong did more than his fair share driving his team they fell agonisingly short by a few hundredths of a second.
This now means that Astana have the second to fifth placed riders plus the seventh placed, and so any more little breaks like that seen yesterday could see anyone of them in yellow by the time the race reaches the mountains at the weekend, when no doubt it will become apparent if Armstrong is destined for another yellow jersey or really can only act as a faithful lieutenant to Contador or another of his team mates.
Can't wait till tomorrow and hopefully cheer on another Cavendish win.
In four stages so far the tour hasn't warmed up but gone to white hot immediately and it is still a few days away from the mountain stages that will define this year's tour and will probably determine the winner with only one more time trial stage to go. Sometimes a sporting event fails to live up to its billing but this Tour de France is not one of those events. Much of the interest before the race centred on the return of Armstrong to the tour for the first time since 2005 and the fact that he was teamed with Alberto Contador the 2007 winner who did not participate in the event last year.
First blood went to Contador with his second place finish in the initial time-trial with Armstong only tenth overall and fourth amongst his team. Sunday's stage panned out as expected with it coming down to a sprint and a superb win by Briton Mark Cavendish placing him in the Green Jersey for the most consistent finisher.
Yesterday (Monday) produced the special brand of excitement that only the Tour de France can produce when after an initial break-away had been gathered up the peloton split into two a few kilometres before the finish led by Cavendish's Columbia team with Cancellera making the break along with Armstrong but most of the remainder of Armstrong's Astana team missed the break and this allowed him to move up to third position overall and become the best placed of his team - Cavendish won the stage securing an even firmer grip on his green jersey. This was a move that either hinted of Armstrong's excellent race-craft or more sinisterly the breaking up of the team that was supposed to be supporting Contador.
Whatever was happening would soon become apparent today with the return of the team-trial to the Tour for the first time since Armstrong last rode and it would indicate if all of the big names in the Astana team could work as a team. This they surely could and for most of the race whilst it was assured they would win the stage it was not so sure that Armstrong would take the coveted Maillot Jaune. This was because Cancellera was not going to give it up easily and literally single handedly led his team throughout the 25 mile stage and whilst Armstrong did more than his fair share driving his team they fell agonisingly short by a few hundredths of a second.
This now means that Astana have the second to fifth placed riders plus the seventh placed, and so any more little breaks like that seen yesterday could see anyone of them in yellow by the time the race reaches the mountains at the weekend, when no doubt it will become apparent if Armstrong is destined for another yellow jersey or really can only act as a faithful lieutenant to Contador or another of his team mates.
Can't wait till tomorrow and hopefully cheer on another Cavendish win.
4th July Prediction Results and an Ashes Prediction
As suspected the 4th July weekend wasn't the greatest for the Americans with the Swiss coming out on top in both the Men's Wimbledon tournament and the first stage time trial of the Tour de France.
I'll start with the tennis where we knew an American by the name of Williams would prevail in the women's tournament, we just didn't know which one. Prior to the tournament my gut feel was Serena but after her close call against Dementieva in the semi-final and with the serene progress that Venus had made through the tournament and her history of dominating the tournament for much of the last few years I changed my mind. That was a wrong decision by me and like Serena I am perplexed by the fact that even though she holds three of the four majors now she is not the World Number 1 - maybe it is time for a change in the way the rankings are calculated! Also, congratulations to the sisters for defending their Doubles title.
Last year we were treated to one of the best and most memorable matches the men's tournament has ever produced and after Nadal's win many pundits saw it as the Federer era beginning to decline. However, history has proved that the pundits, and maybe I should include myself with them, were wrong as Federer has upped his game in the last twelve months and in addition to winning the US Open last summer he know holds the French Open and regained the Wimbledon title in another thrilling final. Andy Roddick played superbly throughout the tournament and came as close to not deserving to lose as is possible, but in sport there has to be a winner and Federer proved he is the best winner there has ever been in Men's Grand Slam tennis at least statistically.
The Lions on Saturday had the last game of their tour to South Africa and other than the rather pointless white armbands worn by the Springboks in protest about the ban received by Bakkies Botha, the match proved my theory that the Lions had more to play for and perhaps more importantly better depth of strength in their squad than the Boks. There were a number of immense performances from the Lions with Shaw yet again to the fore but two other forwards who showed prominently and have improved as players as the tour progressed were Andrew Sheridan and my man of the match for Saturday, Jamie Heaslip. With hindsight it is easy to recognise where things could have been done differently on the tour but all in all I believe that the Lions have proved themselves as a concept and I for one look forward four years to their next tour in Australia.
The Tour de France kicked into life with a very testing initial time trial on Saturday around Monaco and true to form the Olympic time-trial champion, Fabian Cancellera, rode a superb trial to win well ahead of most of the major contenders for overall tour victory. Britain's Bradley Wiggins put in an excellent performance in perhaps one of only two stages that he has a realistic chance of winning but what the trial really demonstrated was that the Astana team are going to be as good in action as they look on paper with four of their riders finishing in the top 10 including Lance Armstrong.
The second stage on Sunday was where the real action started as the peloton moved across the hilly South of France and after the initial breakaway was caught it always looked like a race that would come down to the sprinters. It didn't disappoint and the Columbia team superbly upped the pace and unleashed Mark Cavendish to victory and the green jersey - a jersey that he probably won't give up easily now.
My final predictions for the weekend were at the Moto GP in Laguna Seca (US) where the qualifying actually provided more incident as both Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner had big crashes which put them in doubt for the main event on Sunday. However, these motorcyclists are made of stern stuff and both lined up to start the race on Sunday after all the necessary medical checks and they finished third and fourth respectively (Lorenzo thereby equalling my prediction of finishing on the podium). With the injuries to his two key rivals it looked like Rossi would ride off into the distance to win (as I had predicted) but the reality was very different as Pedrosa who can normally be predicted to fall off, stayed on his bike and gave the Honda team their first win for over a year and perhaps signalled his intent to get back into the title race during the second part of the season.
Not a bad weekend on the prediction front therefore with four out of seven correct results for me leading to a profit of £1.50 and meaning overall losses down to £12.50 since the blog started.
In normal circumstances that would be the end but tomorrow the next great sporting event of the summer gets under way in Cardiff when the Ashes Cricket series between England and Australia begins. My early prediction for this match is an England win, mainly because of the withdrawal through injury of Brett Lee yesterday afternoon but after all the fine weather that Wimbledon experienced it looks like the weather could be the major deciding factor in a result being obtained in this match.
Ashes Cricket
England to win first test at 5/2.
I'll start with the tennis where we knew an American by the name of Williams would prevail in the women's tournament, we just didn't know which one. Prior to the tournament my gut feel was Serena but after her close call against Dementieva in the semi-final and with the serene progress that Venus had made through the tournament and her history of dominating the tournament for much of the last few years I changed my mind. That was a wrong decision by me and like Serena I am perplexed by the fact that even though she holds three of the four majors now she is not the World Number 1 - maybe it is time for a change in the way the rankings are calculated! Also, congratulations to the sisters for defending their Doubles title.
Last year we were treated to one of the best and most memorable matches the men's tournament has ever produced and after Nadal's win many pundits saw it as the Federer era beginning to decline. However, history has proved that the pundits, and maybe I should include myself with them, were wrong as Federer has upped his game in the last twelve months and in addition to winning the US Open last summer he know holds the French Open and regained the Wimbledon title in another thrilling final. Andy Roddick played superbly throughout the tournament and came as close to not deserving to lose as is possible, but in sport there has to be a winner and Federer proved he is the best winner there has ever been in Men's Grand Slam tennis at least statistically.
The Lions on Saturday had the last game of their tour to South Africa and other than the rather pointless white armbands worn by the Springboks in protest about the ban received by Bakkies Botha, the match proved my theory that the Lions had more to play for and perhaps more importantly better depth of strength in their squad than the Boks. There were a number of immense performances from the Lions with Shaw yet again to the fore but two other forwards who showed prominently and have improved as players as the tour progressed were Andrew Sheridan and my man of the match for Saturday, Jamie Heaslip. With hindsight it is easy to recognise where things could have been done differently on the tour but all in all I believe that the Lions have proved themselves as a concept and I for one look forward four years to their next tour in Australia.
The Tour de France kicked into life with a very testing initial time trial on Saturday around Monaco and true to form the Olympic time-trial champion, Fabian Cancellera, rode a superb trial to win well ahead of most of the major contenders for overall tour victory. Britain's Bradley Wiggins put in an excellent performance in perhaps one of only two stages that he has a realistic chance of winning but what the trial really demonstrated was that the Astana team are going to be as good in action as they look on paper with four of their riders finishing in the top 10 including Lance Armstrong.
The second stage on Sunday was where the real action started as the peloton moved across the hilly South of France and after the initial breakaway was caught it always looked like a race that would come down to the sprinters. It didn't disappoint and the Columbia team superbly upped the pace and unleashed Mark Cavendish to victory and the green jersey - a jersey that he probably won't give up easily now.
My final predictions for the weekend were at the Moto GP in Laguna Seca (US) where the qualifying actually provided more incident as both Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner had big crashes which put them in doubt for the main event on Sunday. However, these motorcyclists are made of stern stuff and both lined up to start the race on Sunday after all the necessary medical checks and they finished third and fourth respectively (Lorenzo thereby equalling my prediction of finishing on the podium). With the injuries to his two key rivals it looked like Rossi would ride off into the distance to win (as I had predicted) but the reality was very different as Pedrosa who can normally be predicted to fall off, stayed on his bike and gave the Honda team their first win for over a year and perhaps signalled his intent to get back into the title race during the second part of the season.
Not a bad weekend on the prediction front therefore with four out of seven correct results for me leading to a profit of £1.50 and meaning overall losses down to £12.50 since the blog started.
In normal circumstances that would be the end but tomorrow the next great sporting event of the summer gets under way in Cardiff when the Ashes Cricket series between England and Australia begins. My early prediction for this match is an England win, mainly because of the withdrawal through injury of Brett Lee yesterday afternoon but after all the fine weather that Wimbledon experienced it looks like the weather could be the major deciding factor in a result being obtained in this match.
Ashes Cricket
England to win first test at 5/2.
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