On Saturday the last significant part of the match between the Lions and the Springboks was played out with uncontested scrums. As I have said before the scrum is a crucial part of rugby union, not least because rugby is a game that can be played by anyone whatever their shape or size.
In the not to distant past if a prop went off injured and their was no suitable replacement on the bench (i.e. another prop) then someone else in the team would have to step into the breach so that the game could properly be restarted from the scrum. However, and with no argument from me, about ten years ago this practice was stopped for health and safety reasons. This is fair enough as the front row of the scrum is dangerous enough for those experienced and practised at the art of scrummaging at prop or hooker. To ensure that the game continued if a prop or hooker was injured a team had to have at least one player on the bench who could play prop and another who could hook. The assumption was that it would be highly unlikely two props or hookers would be injured out of the same game.
With the advent of yellow cards there has potentially been more occasions when two props or hookers could be off the pitch at the same time but even so the great majority of matches were not affected by uncontested scrums, even for the duration of a yellow card. However, more recently there seems to have become an increasing number of games (though still a substantial minority) where the scrums have become uncontested and I have noticed this in Premiership, European, International and now a Lions test match.
I think therefore that the rugby's legislators need to look at this issue now before it becomes too serious. There are a number of ways in which I believe the problem could be solved. Firstly, for all top-level matches they could either force teams to have a minimum of three front-rows on the bench so that if all three starting front row were incapacitated (either through injury or a disciplinary offence) there would be cover. This would probably deal with most occasions when a match has to go uncontested.
An alternative and equally workable option would be to have eight substitutes again three providing cover for the front-row without compromising the cover for other positions. There could also then be a limit on a maximum of seven replacements being used and if seven had been used and a third front-row became injured necessitating the use of the eighth player either all of the front-row taken off through injury would have to face a minimum of two weeks unavailable (similar to a concussion restriction) or an earlier tactical substitute would have to be sacrificed.
Another option would be similar to that used in football tournaments when a full squad is available on the bench but only seven could be used and if more than seven became required similar sanctions as described above could be used. This option would probably only be workable for Tests initially but could be expanded in due course.
I do hope that this potential problem of uncontested scrums has been registered by rugby's administrators and a solution is found as otherwise I can see it getting out of control and the spectacle of rugby union being ruined.
Monday, 29 June 2009
Lions Come Up Short
Saturday's test match between the Springboks and the Lions was one of the most enthralling games of rugby that I have seen for years, perhaps the best game since England won the World Cup in 2003.
Of course because the Lions lost, albeit with the last kick off the match it is easy to look for a scapegoat and because it was Ronan O'Gara's challenge that gave away the penalty he becomes the obvious candidate. This off course is unfair for a number of reasons not least that this was not the only penalty conceded by the Lions during the match but was the last one to be conceded.
There are four if not five far more obvious culprits and none of these are associated with the Lions.
1. Burger, the Springbok open-side flanker who clearly attempted to gouge the eyes of Fitzgerald less than a minute into the match. This was a clear violation of every principle of rugby and he should have been sent off and not just given a yellow card;
2. On this same incident the touch-judge is also culpable. He spotted the incident but his recommendation (as could be heard from the microphones) was at least a yellow card. This obviously swayed the referee because if a red had been recommended and then the referee had only shown a yellow card, he would be fully guilty of abusing his power by not dismissing Burger from the field permanently;
3. Of course the referee does have some guilt because as the man in charge he should have known that the law for an eye-gouge is an immediate red card and he should have ignored the advice from the touch-judge once he had been acquainted with the facts;
4. In a totally unrelated incident (Bakkies) Botha was also a significant factor in the Lions losing. He had been outplayed throughout the match by Simon Shaw and was constantly taking out his frustration with Lions players through the game. Unfortunately, in one incident he (probably unknowingly) changed the complete course of the game with a late charge on Adam Jones causing a shoulder dislocation. The incident was not spotted by the officials at the time and to make matters worse, the Lions had also incurred an injury to their other prop (Gethin Jenkins) in the same passage of play. This therefore led to the scrums for the last half-hour of the match becoming uncontested - an occurrence that had it happened the previous week may have been in the Lions favour but in Pretoria certainly wasn't. I am strong believer in contested scrums in Rugby Union or else we start moving towards Rugby League where the scrum is a non-contest and I will comment on this another time.
5. Slightly more contentious this culprit as it is the video referee who after three minutes of deliberation decided to award the try that gave South Africa the lead for the first time in the game. The problem I have with this is not necessarily that it wasn't a try (and I'll admit when I saw the try in real-time my gut feel was that it was a try), but that after all of that deliberation there was not a definitive camera angle to prove that it was a try. My understanding of the rules are that a bit like in cricket if there is any doubt the benefit goes to the defending side (or the batsman in case of cricket).
All of the above could sound like sour grapes and would be if it had not been that both Burger and Botha were cited almost immediately after the game and found guilty of transgressing the rules. It means that the Lions can now not win the series in the final match next week and whilst there will be plenty of pride to play for (on both sides) from a purely sporting angle there is nothing at stake and so there can never be the same excitement generated.
The game as I mentioned at the start was completely enthralling and there were many positives to come from it. Not least in these were the performances of Simon Shaw who defied his years and in his eighteenth match as a Lion, but his first in the test team, was awesome and he deserves all the plaudits he has received since the game finished. Secondly, Rob Kearney more than stepped up to the mark starting at full-back and was another player who did not deserve to be on a losing team at the end of the game.
In fact, there was not a Lions player who did not justify their position in the team and it would be very easy to find plenty to praise them all for, but the game was lost because of some poor decisions from officials, injuries that ruled out both starting props and the excellent centre partnership and finally some brilliance from both of the South African wingers - Habana and Pietersen - who scored each excellent tries.
Of course because the Lions lost, albeit with the last kick off the match it is easy to look for a scapegoat and because it was Ronan O'Gara's challenge that gave away the penalty he becomes the obvious candidate. This off course is unfair for a number of reasons not least that this was not the only penalty conceded by the Lions during the match but was the last one to be conceded.
There are four if not five far more obvious culprits and none of these are associated with the Lions.
1. Burger, the Springbok open-side flanker who clearly attempted to gouge the eyes of Fitzgerald less than a minute into the match. This was a clear violation of every principle of rugby and he should have been sent off and not just given a yellow card;
2. On this same incident the touch-judge is also culpable. He spotted the incident but his recommendation (as could be heard from the microphones) was at least a yellow card. This obviously swayed the referee because if a red had been recommended and then the referee had only shown a yellow card, he would be fully guilty of abusing his power by not dismissing Burger from the field permanently;
3. Of course the referee does have some guilt because as the man in charge he should have known that the law for an eye-gouge is an immediate red card and he should have ignored the advice from the touch-judge once he had been acquainted with the facts;
4. In a totally unrelated incident (Bakkies) Botha was also a significant factor in the Lions losing. He had been outplayed throughout the match by Simon Shaw and was constantly taking out his frustration with Lions players through the game. Unfortunately, in one incident he (probably unknowingly) changed the complete course of the game with a late charge on Adam Jones causing a shoulder dislocation. The incident was not spotted by the officials at the time and to make matters worse, the Lions had also incurred an injury to their other prop (Gethin Jenkins) in the same passage of play. This therefore led to the scrums for the last half-hour of the match becoming uncontested - an occurrence that had it happened the previous week may have been in the Lions favour but in Pretoria certainly wasn't. I am strong believer in contested scrums in Rugby Union or else we start moving towards Rugby League where the scrum is a non-contest and I will comment on this another time.
5. Slightly more contentious this culprit as it is the video referee who after three minutes of deliberation decided to award the try that gave South Africa the lead for the first time in the game. The problem I have with this is not necessarily that it wasn't a try (and I'll admit when I saw the try in real-time my gut feel was that it was a try), but that after all of that deliberation there was not a definitive camera angle to prove that it was a try. My understanding of the rules are that a bit like in cricket if there is any doubt the benefit goes to the defending side (or the batsman in case of cricket).
All of the above could sound like sour grapes and would be if it had not been that both Burger and Botha were cited almost immediately after the game and found guilty of transgressing the rules. It means that the Lions can now not win the series in the final match next week and whilst there will be plenty of pride to play for (on both sides) from a purely sporting angle there is nothing at stake and so there can never be the same excitement generated.
The game as I mentioned at the start was completely enthralling and there were many positives to come from it. Not least in these were the performances of Simon Shaw who defied his years and in his eighteenth match as a Lion, but his first in the test team, was awesome and he deserves all the plaudits he has received since the game finished. Secondly, Rob Kearney more than stepped up to the mark starting at full-back and was another player who did not deserve to be on a losing team at the end of the game.
In fact, there was not a Lions player who did not justify their position in the team and it would be very easy to find plenty to praise them all for, but the game was lost because of some poor decisions from officials, injuries that ruled out both starting props and the excellent centre partnership and finally some brilliance from both of the South African wingers - Habana and Pietersen - who scored each excellent tries.
Friday, 26 June 2009
Predictions for the Weekend
Finding events to make predictions on are a bit thin on the ground this week but still some great sport nevertheless.
To start with there is the Lions rugby in Pretoria and there are five changes to the team that started last week with further changes on the bench. As I said earlier in the week if the Lions can compete in the set-piece as hopefully they will with the revamped front five forwards, then I believe the backs can inflict real damage on the Springboks, therefore I am going for a Lions win taking the series to a winner takes all decider next week.
In Australia the French complete their tour but I am going for a home win by 12 points or less. The Italians are in New Zealand a match I am sure should be an easy win for the All Blacks and am going for a win by between 21 and 30 points.
The MotoGP season which has been thrilling so far moves to The Netherlands with Yamaha teammates Lorenzo and Rossi tied at the top of the championship and Ducati's Casey Stoner also very much in contention. I am going with a Rossi win and Stoner on the podium.
The final predictions this week are centred on the European Football Under 21 championships with England playing Sweden tonight in the semi-finals and I am going for an England win and for England to win the tournament. There will also be the Confederations Cup final in South Africa but like the bookmakers I can't see the USA beating Brazil so with ridiculous odds I am not making an official prediction on this match.
In summary the predictions for the weekend are as follows:
Rugby Union
Lions to beat South Africa at 11/4
Australia to beat France by between 1 and 12 points at 15/8
New Zealand to beat Italy by between 21 and 30 points at 11/4
MotoGP in Assen
Rossi to win at 6/4
Stoner to podium at 1/3
European Under 21 Football
England to beat Sweden at 11/10
England to win tournament at 13/8
To start with there is the Lions rugby in Pretoria and there are five changes to the team that started last week with further changes on the bench. As I said earlier in the week if the Lions can compete in the set-piece as hopefully they will with the revamped front five forwards, then I believe the backs can inflict real damage on the Springboks, therefore I am going for a Lions win taking the series to a winner takes all decider next week.
In Australia the French complete their tour but I am going for a home win by 12 points or less. The Italians are in New Zealand a match I am sure should be an easy win for the All Blacks and am going for a win by between 21 and 30 points.
The MotoGP season which has been thrilling so far moves to The Netherlands with Yamaha teammates Lorenzo and Rossi tied at the top of the championship and Ducati's Casey Stoner also very much in contention. I am going with a Rossi win and Stoner on the podium.
The final predictions this week are centred on the European Football Under 21 championships with England playing Sweden tonight in the semi-finals and I am going for an England win and for England to win the tournament. There will also be the Confederations Cup final in South Africa but like the bookmakers I can't see the USA beating Brazil so with ridiculous odds I am not making an official prediction on this match.
In summary the predictions for the weekend are as follows:
Rugby Union
Lions to beat South Africa at 11/4
Australia to beat France by between 1 and 12 points at 15/8
New Zealand to beat Italy by between 21 and 30 points at 11/4
MotoGP in Assen
Rossi to win at 6/4
Stoner to podium at 1/3
European Under 21 Football
England to beat Sweden at 11/10
England to win tournament at 13/8
Thursday, 25 June 2009
Is Cycling the New Football?
A strange question you may think but precipitated by the announcement today that Sky will be funding the new British road-racing cycling team.
Cycling is a sport that has been in the public consciousness for a few years now with Britain's track successes at the last couple of Olympics bringing it to the fore and the star of Beijing - Chris Hoy - winning the BBC sports personality of the year and then this being followed up by a Knighthood. However, track cycling to many cyclists is a distraction from their real job as road-racing cyclists. Though the British men didn't win any medals in the cycling road-races in Beijing, Nicole Cooke won the women's road race and Emma Pooley won a silver in the time-trial and both of these women have continued their success since the Olympic Games with Nicole Cooke also becoming World Champion.
At the Olympics Mark Cavendish became best known as the only track cyclist not to win a medal, yet last week he became the most successful road cyclist Britain has ever produced when he won his second stage of the Tour of Switzerland in his last warm-up before the Tour de France. This is a remarkable achievement as he is only a couple of years into his career and in addition to his success in Switzerland he has won three stages in this years Giro D'Italia, won the Milan - San Remo Classic and was the first Briton to win four stages in last year's Tour de France and then promptly retired from the race to prepare himself to represent his nation on the track in Beijing.
Cavendish will never win the Tour de France (unless they decide to scrap the mountain stages and time trials) but winning these tours is only possible for a handful of riders in any generation. However, each stage of the tour is a race of its own and this is where Cavendish comes into his own as he is now the most feared sprinter in road cycling and has been for the last eighteen months. Whilst he won't wear the "Maillot Jeune" in Paris in a months time there is every chance he will be on the podium with the "Maillot Vert" for the most consistent finisher.
So back to my original question. There are two reasons why cycling could be the new football. Firstly, the fact that Sky are sponsoring the new professional road-race team will probably mean that more cycling will be on their sports channels rather than hidden on ITV 4 or Eurosport, both of who's coverage is excellent but neither of these channels are regarded as mainstream.
Secondly, because Mark Cavendish is a bit like a striker in a football team. For most of a race he will be buried in the pack (peloton) and only comes to the fore in the last couple of miles to challenge for the win and grab the glory but not just for himself but for his team and sponsors. Cycling is very much a team sport whether you are a sprinter like Cavendish, or a contender for overall victory in one of the Grand Tours and the team used will be to support the cyclist in the team with the best chance of glory. In Cavendish's team (Columbia) this means they are focused on winning as many stages as possible rather than being able to challenge for overall victory whilst in the Astana team (Armstrong's team) there will be a better mix of climbers, to ensure that the team leader can be protected as much as possible through the mountains and can thereby challenge for overall victory.
I for one can't wait until the Tour de France starts in 10 days in Monaco as the wider British public may come to know the next Great British sportsman (one who in his own sport is already highly respected and feared) and in my opinion is already up there with the likes of Andy Murray, Lewis Hamilton et al in the success he has had in his chosen sport. Stranger things have happened and if he does live up to his billing perhaps he could be this year's Sport Personality!
Cycling is a sport that has been in the public consciousness for a few years now with Britain's track successes at the last couple of Olympics bringing it to the fore and the star of Beijing - Chris Hoy - winning the BBC sports personality of the year and then this being followed up by a Knighthood. However, track cycling to many cyclists is a distraction from their real job as road-racing cyclists. Though the British men didn't win any medals in the cycling road-races in Beijing, Nicole Cooke won the women's road race and Emma Pooley won a silver in the time-trial and both of these women have continued their success since the Olympic Games with Nicole Cooke also becoming World Champion.
At the Olympics Mark Cavendish became best known as the only track cyclist not to win a medal, yet last week he became the most successful road cyclist Britain has ever produced when he won his second stage of the Tour of Switzerland in his last warm-up before the Tour de France. This is a remarkable achievement as he is only a couple of years into his career and in addition to his success in Switzerland he has won three stages in this years Giro D'Italia, won the Milan - San Remo Classic and was the first Briton to win four stages in last year's Tour de France and then promptly retired from the race to prepare himself to represent his nation on the track in Beijing.
Cavendish will never win the Tour de France (unless they decide to scrap the mountain stages and time trials) but winning these tours is only possible for a handful of riders in any generation. However, each stage of the tour is a race of its own and this is where Cavendish comes into his own as he is now the most feared sprinter in road cycling and has been for the last eighteen months. Whilst he won't wear the "Maillot Jeune" in Paris in a months time there is every chance he will be on the podium with the "Maillot Vert" for the most consistent finisher.
So back to my original question. There are two reasons why cycling could be the new football. Firstly, the fact that Sky are sponsoring the new professional road-race team will probably mean that more cycling will be on their sports channels rather than hidden on ITV 4 or Eurosport, both of who's coverage is excellent but neither of these channels are regarded as mainstream.
Secondly, because Mark Cavendish is a bit like a striker in a football team. For most of a race he will be buried in the pack (peloton) and only comes to the fore in the last couple of miles to challenge for the win and grab the glory but not just for himself but for his team and sponsors. Cycling is very much a team sport whether you are a sprinter like Cavendish, or a contender for overall victory in one of the Grand Tours and the team used will be to support the cyclist in the team with the best chance of glory. In Cavendish's team (Columbia) this means they are focused on winning as many stages as possible rather than being able to challenge for overall victory whilst in the Astana team (Armstrong's team) there will be a better mix of climbers, to ensure that the team leader can be protected as much as possible through the mountains and can thereby challenge for overall victory.
I for one can't wait until the Tour de France starts in 10 days in Monaco as the wider British public may come to know the next Great British sportsman (one who in his own sport is already highly respected and feared) and in my opinion is already up there with the likes of Andy Murray, Lewis Hamilton et al in the success he has had in his chosen sport. Stranger things have happened and if he does live up to his billing perhaps he could be this year's Sport Personality!
Tuesday, 23 June 2009
Bad week of Predictions
It was my worse weekend of predictions since I started this blog with only one correct result through the weekend meaning that I lost £7.50 which has taken my total losses to £17!
The weekend started badly when both South Africa and West Indies lost their semi-final matches in the World 20/20 cricket tournament and I had predicted them as the finalists. Congratulations to Pakistan who at the beginning of the tournament looked like they had no interest and ended it as deserved winners. Congratulations also due to the England women who added the 20/20 trophy to the world one-day and Ashes trophies they already had won this year. Let's hope that the England men can at least match their Ashes triumph.
As usual my golf predictions were way off the mark with both Poulter and Westwood flattering to deceive through the tournament and Woods never really being in the running for the win after his first two rounds. Same was also true of my prediction at Royal Ascot that trailed in fourth and never threatened the winner.
I commented on the Lions failings yesterday and hope that we can at least take the series to the deciding test at Ellis Park but I had predicted a win last week and was wrong. I did correctly predict the All Blacks to win against France but it was another tight game and so the margin of 13 points was not reached.
Finally, in what may have been the last Silverstone Grand Prix for some years I decided to go for a Button win having ignored him for most of the season and sure enough he both qualified and finished sixth. Thankfully, I did not have a complete whitewash as Webber who I predicted a podium came in second behind his team-mate Sebastian Vettel.
The weekend started badly when both South Africa and West Indies lost their semi-final matches in the World 20/20 cricket tournament and I had predicted them as the finalists. Congratulations to Pakistan who at the beginning of the tournament looked like they had no interest and ended it as deserved winners. Congratulations also due to the England women who added the 20/20 trophy to the world one-day and Ashes trophies they already had won this year. Let's hope that the England men can at least match their Ashes triumph.
As usual my golf predictions were way off the mark with both Poulter and Westwood flattering to deceive through the tournament and Woods never really being in the running for the win after his first two rounds. Same was also true of my prediction at Royal Ascot that trailed in fourth and never threatened the winner.
I commented on the Lions failings yesterday and hope that we can at least take the series to the deciding test at Ellis Park but I had predicted a win last week and was wrong. I did correctly predict the All Blacks to win against France but it was another tight game and so the margin of 13 points was not reached.
Finally, in what may have been the last Silverstone Grand Prix for some years I decided to go for a Button win having ignored him for most of the season and sure enough he both qualified and finished sixth. Thankfully, I did not have a complete whitewash as Webber who I predicted a podium came in second behind his team-mate Sebastian Vettel.
Monday, 22 June 2009
Lions Tamed by the Beast
On Saturday I experienced some of the most cringe worthy minutes of watching sport, and particularly rugby for some years. This was not because the game was bad, far from it, but because one team demonstrated an absolute mastery of the basics of forward play whilst their opponents looked like beginners because of the pressure that they were under.
The game was that between the South African Springboks and the British & Irish Lions in Durban. For regular followers of this blog you will know that the team that took the pitch for the Lions was the one that I felt had the best chance of upsetting the home side and that was what made the spectacle or the more galling.
Any rugby player will tell you (forward or back) that without the forwards providing a solid platform it is very difficult, if not nigh on impossible, to create the space for scoring opportunities. This is where the Lions failed because their set-piece for the first 45 minutes of the game was totally dominated and there was only very rare opportunities for the class players of the Lions side, most notably the centre partnership of Roberts and O'Driscoll to show their skills.
Part of the selection problem stems from the warm-up matches that the Lions had played up to the test because in these games the Lions pack was fairly dominant in the set-pieces and the major forward weakness appeared to be around the breakdown area i.e. the rucks. For this the Springboks should be applauded because their squad were effectively not given any game time in these matches and so the Lions management prepared for the first test based on their experience of the previous three weeks games and not on the basis that the initial squad was selected and I, along with most pundits were also succoured into what was going to be required.
However, whilst before the game I thought that if the Lions lost they would get white-washed I think there is still hope that the series can be won but it will mean going back to basics. Firstly, there is not too much tinkering needed with the backs or potentially the back-row of the scrum but where the major surgery is needed is in the front-five where none of the players (including the captain O'Connell) should be confident of starting on Saturday in Pretoria.
The most obvious casualty is Phil Vickery who was totally dominated by his opposite number ("The Beast") from the first scrum. Adam Jones is the obvious replacement and the scrum certainly improved when he came on. Lee Mears will probably also lose his place but this may be harsh as no doubt he was affected in the scrum by what was happening to his tight-head and this put increased pressure on his line-out throwing. Jenkins did better at loose-head, maybe as you would expect when facing a converted hooker and again demonstrated his usefulness in the loose with a great covering tackle on Habana, but if the Lions want to really dominate maybe they should consider Sheridan or the recently arrived Payne in the 1 shirt and save Jenkins for the last 25 minutes off the bench when the game opens up.
To ensure the scrum remains steady if not becomes dominant then the second row should also be changed with Shaw being the obvious replacement for Wyn-Jones. He should then operate in tandem with either O'Connell or Hines which will provide the necessary bulk. This may lessen the line-out options but with Croft and Heaslip in the back-row there is still room for variety and Shaw should be a safe pair of hands jumping at the front. Much will depend on who the hooker is, as while Rees looked better than Mears when he came on it was against a weakened Springbok side and he did not have to suffer the ignominy in the scrum that Mears did.
One great sight from Saturday (if you are a South Africa fan) was the driving maul that took them from well-inside their own half to a converted try (via a couple of penalties). The IRB should be applauded for dropping the experimental law that would have prevented this from happening up to a month ago, because when executed so "beautifully" as it was on Saturday, there is hardly a better vision on a rugby field. I have said in the past that one of the reasons I love the game of rugby is because it allows anybody to play whatever their shape or size and this was amply demonstrated on Saturday where the Springbok "fat" boys were clearly better than our boys, though our "pretty" boys look like they have the edge if there is parity in the forwards.
To summarise wholesale surgery is needed in the Lions front five to ensure we can compete in the set-piece, defence training is then needed on stopping the maul (legally) and this is achievable in a week. In addition some positives that can be drawn for the Lions are that not only do the backs look better, the South African replacements are not as good as the starting line-up and they will be needed because the Boks did not appear to have the fitness of the Lions - though this could be negated by the return to altitude for the final two tests.
My team for the second test is as follows:
1. Sheridan
2. Mears
3. Jones (Adam)
4. Shaw
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones (Stephen)
11.Monye
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne / Kearney
16.Rees
17.Jenkins
18.Hines
19.Wallace
20.Ellis
21.O'Gara
22.Kearney / Flutey
May be contentious and as still unsure on Byrne's injury have gone for the alternative of Kearney.
The game was that between the South African Springboks and the British & Irish Lions in Durban. For regular followers of this blog you will know that the team that took the pitch for the Lions was the one that I felt had the best chance of upsetting the home side and that was what made the spectacle or the more galling.
Any rugby player will tell you (forward or back) that without the forwards providing a solid platform it is very difficult, if not nigh on impossible, to create the space for scoring opportunities. This is where the Lions failed because their set-piece for the first 45 minutes of the game was totally dominated and there was only very rare opportunities for the class players of the Lions side, most notably the centre partnership of Roberts and O'Driscoll to show their skills.
Part of the selection problem stems from the warm-up matches that the Lions had played up to the test because in these games the Lions pack was fairly dominant in the set-pieces and the major forward weakness appeared to be around the breakdown area i.e. the rucks. For this the Springboks should be applauded because their squad were effectively not given any game time in these matches and so the Lions management prepared for the first test based on their experience of the previous three weeks games and not on the basis that the initial squad was selected and I, along with most pundits were also succoured into what was going to be required.
However, whilst before the game I thought that if the Lions lost they would get white-washed I think there is still hope that the series can be won but it will mean going back to basics. Firstly, there is not too much tinkering needed with the backs or potentially the back-row of the scrum but where the major surgery is needed is in the front-five where none of the players (including the captain O'Connell) should be confident of starting on Saturday in Pretoria.
The most obvious casualty is Phil Vickery who was totally dominated by his opposite number ("The Beast") from the first scrum. Adam Jones is the obvious replacement and the scrum certainly improved when he came on. Lee Mears will probably also lose his place but this may be harsh as no doubt he was affected in the scrum by what was happening to his tight-head and this put increased pressure on his line-out throwing. Jenkins did better at loose-head, maybe as you would expect when facing a converted hooker and again demonstrated his usefulness in the loose with a great covering tackle on Habana, but if the Lions want to really dominate maybe they should consider Sheridan or the recently arrived Payne in the 1 shirt and save Jenkins for the last 25 minutes off the bench when the game opens up.
To ensure the scrum remains steady if not becomes dominant then the second row should also be changed with Shaw being the obvious replacement for Wyn-Jones. He should then operate in tandem with either O'Connell or Hines which will provide the necessary bulk. This may lessen the line-out options but with Croft and Heaslip in the back-row there is still room for variety and Shaw should be a safe pair of hands jumping at the front. Much will depend on who the hooker is, as while Rees looked better than Mears when he came on it was against a weakened Springbok side and he did not have to suffer the ignominy in the scrum that Mears did.
One great sight from Saturday (if you are a South Africa fan) was the driving maul that took them from well-inside their own half to a converted try (via a couple of penalties). The IRB should be applauded for dropping the experimental law that would have prevented this from happening up to a month ago, because when executed so "beautifully" as it was on Saturday, there is hardly a better vision on a rugby field. I have said in the past that one of the reasons I love the game of rugby is because it allows anybody to play whatever their shape or size and this was amply demonstrated on Saturday where the Springbok "fat" boys were clearly better than our boys, though our "pretty" boys look like they have the edge if there is parity in the forwards.
To summarise wholesale surgery is needed in the Lions front five to ensure we can compete in the set-piece, defence training is then needed on stopping the maul (legally) and this is achievable in a week. In addition some positives that can be drawn for the Lions are that not only do the backs look better, the South African replacements are not as good as the starting line-up and they will be needed because the Boks did not appear to have the fitness of the Lions - though this could be negated by the return to altitude for the final two tests.
My team for the second test is as follows:
1. Sheridan
2. Mears
3. Jones (Adam)
4. Shaw
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones (Stephen)
11.Monye
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne / Kearney
16.Rees
17.Jenkins
18.Hines
19.Wallace
20.Ellis
21.O'Gara
22.Kearney / Flutey
May be contentious and as still unsure on Byrne's injury have gone for the alternative of Kearney.
Friday, 19 June 2009
Remaining Weekend Predictions
Hopefully I will do better with my remaining predictions than I did with my opening gambits yesterday! My 20/20 predictions were that South Africa would win the final against West Indies but unfortunately they were beaten yesterday in the semi-final so I can forget those two predictions. As for the US Open, there was only three hours play yesterday and the weather forecast is not looking good for today and so we may not know the outcome until the middle of next week but at least Poulter has had a good start.
For me this is one of the best sporting weekends of the year as we have a Lions test and the British Grand Prix at Silverstone and it is just a shame I am not at either of these events and will have to rely on the television coverage to watch the action as it unfolds.
As the Lions have selected the team that I thought they would and on the basis when the core of this team has played in the provincial matches they have played well I am going for a Lions win though it will be tight. This is a big call as the Lions haven't won a test since beating Australia in the first match of their 2001 series and if they don't win this match it is very possible they could end up losing the series 3 - 0. For my other rugby prediction I am going for New Zealand to beat France by 13 points or more, the same prediction as I made last week but I think the All Blacks will know exactly what they are up against after their shock defeat last week and will play accordingly.
As Royal Ascot has been on-going this week I thought it only reasonable that I make one prediction for the week and so today in the Coronation Stakes I am going for Elusive Wave who I believe won the French 1000 Guineas.
Finally, as the posturing and politicking in F1 has reached a crescendo with the announcement this morning that the majority of teams will form a breakaway series next season as they could not reach agreement with the FIA with regards to the rules going forward I am playing it safe this weekend. Even though I have been both delighted and astounded to see the success of Brawn GP and Jenson Button this season I have been reluctant to predict him as a race winner in all but one of this seasons races. I have learnt my lesson and I am plumping for him to win on Sunday, at what is likely to be the last F1 Grand Prix at Silverstone for some time. Even though the majority of teams on the grid have upped their performance since the beginning of the season the two leading teams of Brawn GP and Red Bull Racing have continued to enhance their cars and I can't see any of the other teams breaking their dominance this weekend and so I will also go for Webber (Red Bull) on the podium for the race.
Finally, Wimbledon starts on Monday and though not official predictions at this time I favour Federer for the men's tournament (current best odds are 10/11) and Serena Williams for the ladies (current odds 5/2). The men's tournament could be very open this year as I am not sure if Federer will have regained his focus after his record-breaking triumph in Paris a couple of weeks ago, there is concern about whether Nadal will be fit enough and the bookmakers have recognised this by offering what look like very generous odds of 8/1 for the current champion to defend his title. The other main contender for most of the season has been Andy Murray but though he was successful at Queens last week I am not sure he will be able to handle the hype and pressure that the next fortnight will bring but if he does it will be great to see a Brit win a Men's Grand Slam singles event for the first time in more than 70 years.
To summarise the predictions are as follows:
Rugby Union
Lions to beat South Africa in first test at 9/4
All Blacks to beat France by 13 points or more in second test at 19/17
Royal Ascot
Elusive Wave to win the Coronation Stakes at 3/1
British Grand Prix
Button to win at Evens
Webber to podium at 6/4
For me this is one of the best sporting weekends of the year as we have a Lions test and the British Grand Prix at Silverstone and it is just a shame I am not at either of these events and will have to rely on the television coverage to watch the action as it unfolds.
As the Lions have selected the team that I thought they would and on the basis when the core of this team has played in the provincial matches they have played well I am going for a Lions win though it will be tight. This is a big call as the Lions haven't won a test since beating Australia in the first match of their 2001 series and if they don't win this match it is very possible they could end up losing the series 3 - 0. For my other rugby prediction I am going for New Zealand to beat France by 13 points or more, the same prediction as I made last week but I think the All Blacks will know exactly what they are up against after their shock defeat last week and will play accordingly.
As Royal Ascot has been on-going this week I thought it only reasonable that I make one prediction for the week and so today in the Coronation Stakes I am going for Elusive Wave who I believe won the French 1000 Guineas.
Finally, as the posturing and politicking in F1 has reached a crescendo with the announcement this morning that the majority of teams will form a breakaway series next season as they could not reach agreement with the FIA with regards to the rules going forward I am playing it safe this weekend. Even though I have been both delighted and astounded to see the success of Brawn GP and Jenson Button this season I have been reluctant to predict him as a race winner in all but one of this seasons races. I have learnt my lesson and I am plumping for him to win on Sunday, at what is likely to be the last F1 Grand Prix at Silverstone for some time. Even though the majority of teams on the grid have upped their performance since the beginning of the season the two leading teams of Brawn GP and Red Bull Racing have continued to enhance their cars and I can't see any of the other teams breaking their dominance this weekend and so I will also go for Webber (Red Bull) on the podium for the race.
Finally, Wimbledon starts on Monday and though not official predictions at this time I favour Federer for the men's tournament (current best odds are 10/11) and Serena Williams for the ladies (current odds 5/2). The men's tournament could be very open this year as I am not sure if Federer will have regained his focus after his record-breaking triumph in Paris a couple of weeks ago, there is concern about whether Nadal will be fit enough and the bookmakers have recognised this by offering what look like very generous odds of 8/1 for the current champion to defend his title. The other main contender for most of the season has been Andy Murray but though he was successful at Queens last week I am not sure he will be able to handle the hype and pressure that the next fortnight will bring but if he does it will be great to see a Brit win a Men's Grand Slam singles event for the first time in more than 70 years.
To summarise the predictions are as follows:
Rugby Union
Lions to beat South Africa in first test at 9/4
All Blacks to beat France by 13 points or more in second test at 19/17
Royal Ascot
Elusive Wave to win the Coronation Stakes at 3/1
British Grand Prix
Button to win at Evens
Webber to podium at 6/4
Thursday, 18 June 2009
Lions Selection Update
A couple of hours ago Ian McGeechan announced his selection for the Lions test against South Africa in Durban on Saturday and I am pleased to see that he has mainly agreed with my last prediction of what the team would be as I correctly predicted 14 of the starting 15 and 21 of the 22 in the squad.
The only differences were that the Lions have plumped for Wallace at open-side flanker with Williams (Martyn) on the bench and O'Callaghan on the bench instead of my prediction of Nathan Hines. Neither of these selections are contentious as there was always a good chance that Wallace would get the nod because of the amount more playing time he has had due to Williams being injured, and I always maintained that the second row could have been any one of the four in the squad plus O'Connell who was almost guaranteed his place as tour captain.
It is interesting that of the original XV I predicted after only the second game of the tour eleven are in the starting line-up and the other four on the bench. Whilst this may seem like excellent prediction skills from me, I think what it really shows is that no player in the squad has significantly improved their form since the tour started three weeks ago.
The only bad news today from the Lions camp is that the injury suffered by Murray on Tuesday has ruled him out for the remainder of the tour and Andy Robinson as Scotland coach will have realised just what a tough job he will have as no Scot has made the 22 selected for the first test.
The only differences were that the Lions have plumped for Wallace at open-side flanker with Williams (Martyn) on the bench and O'Callaghan on the bench instead of my prediction of Nathan Hines. Neither of these selections are contentious as there was always a good chance that Wallace would get the nod because of the amount more playing time he has had due to Williams being injured, and I always maintained that the second row could have been any one of the four in the squad plus O'Connell who was almost guaranteed his place as tour captain.
It is interesting that of the original XV I predicted after only the second game of the tour eleven are in the starting line-up and the other four on the bench. Whilst this may seem like excellent prediction skills from me, I think what it really shows is that no player in the squad has significantly improved their form since the tour started three weeks ago.
The only bad news today from the Lions camp is that the injury suffered by Murray on Tuesday has ruled him out for the remainder of the tour and Andy Robinson as Scotland coach will have realised just what a tough job he will have as no Scot has made the 22 selected for the first test.
Divide and Conquer
I have stayed away from commenting on the politics of F1 for a couple of weeks but as the British Grand Prix at Silverstone approaches this week and we near the half-way point of this season there is plenty of doubt about which teams will be competing in next year's F1 championship.
The key issue still surrounds the imposition of an optional budget cap on the teams, with those that abide by the cap having more flexibility in the design of their cars and the power of their engines. This cap has been set at £40 million and excludes certain costs like Driver Salaries, Marketing etc. The FIA (led by Max Mosley) have said that there are two key reasons they want to impose this budget cap:
Firstly, they want to attract new teams into the sport and by levelling the playing field with regard expenditure this will make this process easier.
Secondly, they do not want to see any existing teams exiting the sport as Honda did at the end of last season because they couldn't justify the expenditure for the reward that was provided.
Addressing each of these issues in turn there are some fundamental flaws in the arguments being put forward by the FIA not least the proposal to have a two tier championship where some teams have more technical freedom than others. With regards to the attraction of new teams the proposed reforms have worked and three new teams have been selected for inclusion on next years grid including Britain's Manor Motorsport as well as a US and Spanish entry. However, with no experience of F1 it is doubtful whether any of these teams will be competitive in their first couple of years of competing, budget cap or not, principally because of the lack of testing that these teams will have the opportunity to do. If there is a positive it is that all of these teams have contracted to use Cosworth engines and it will be a welcome return to the grid for this famous name.
Secondly, the FIA have stated that by imposing the budget cap it will prevent further teams leaving the gird, particularly in these challenging economic times. However, the dissent against this approach is being led by the leading motor manufacturing teams including Toyota, Renault, Mercedes, Fiat (Ferrari) and BMW who the FIA are afraid will leave the sport. Therefore if the FIA persist with this imposition of the new rules it could lead to a grid next season without the likes of Ferrari and McLaren, and to many that would devalue the sport and lead to fans no longer following the sport.
From an economic point of view this is not a sensible approach as potentially it will mean that the better funded teams will have to lay off staff so that they can keep within the budget caps and so this makes no sense.
In an effort to break the power of the major teams (under their umbrella body of FOTA) the FIA have adopted a divide and conquer strategy. This has led to two of the independent teams, Williams and Force India, breaking ranks with their fellow teams by saying they will enter next season whatever the rules. As these teams both currently use manufacturer engines (Toyota and Mercedes) it is likely that both of these teams had already decided to ditch these engines for next season or have alternative engine suppliers in place for next season (i.e. Cosworth) if their current engine suppliers do not compete.
The next step the FIA has taken is that they have told three of the remaining teams (Ferrari, Red Bull & Toro Rosso) that they are contracted to compete next season and beyond whatever the rules. This then leaves five teams of which only Brawn could be considered an independent entity. The Brawn team have been all-conquering so far this season and it is inconceivable that they would not want the chance to defend their title next year if they are to win it this season. The key problem they have is that Mercedes and Ferrari provided much help and support to ensure the team could get to the grid this season and so the team feel that they have to support their colleagues whilst they'd rather take the same approach as Williams and Force India.
The FIA have said to these five teams that they must submit unconditional entries by tomorrow or they will be replaced by a queue of teams who have submitted entries for next season but were not accepted in the first round of entrants last week.
My view is that there needs to be a compromise as the teams have suggested with a plan to continue to reduce costs over the coming years. It is also wrong that the wealthier teams should be penalised just because they have more money, as it is not the way that sport works - just look at football and rugby union. It is a fact of life that whilst the spectator watches for the sport itself and the competition, the teams that take to the field, the track etc. are businesses and as such should not be unfairly restricted how they spend their money and accrue their profits.
Finally, whilst the teams have suggested that they will set-up a rival series if their demands are not met, I think this is an idle threat as the logistics in setting up such a series would be almost impossible to create in such a short space of time. It would almost certainly be doomed as happened when the Indy series in the US split into rival series of Indy and Champ cars and then had to re-unite as they lost all of the economies of scale benefits that having one series brought.
I applaud the FIA for trying to encourage new teams into the sport and recognise that the best way to do this is by improving cost control, but they should not take a unilateral approach to imposing new rules as F1 will only continue with its global audiences and the money this generates with its established teams. As with any business in any industry there has to be a compromise on what can be achieved in the short-term whilst laying the foundations for long-term growth and success. Lets hope that this is all satisfactorily resolved in the coming weeks and we can concentrate on admiring the skills of the drivers and the ingenuity of the engineers behind the cars for the remainder of the year.
The key issue still surrounds the imposition of an optional budget cap on the teams, with those that abide by the cap having more flexibility in the design of their cars and the power of their engines. This cap has been set at £40 million and excludes certain costs like Driver Salaries, Marketing etc. The FIA (led by Max Mosley) have said that there are two key reasons they want to impose this budget cap:
Firstly, they want to attract new teams into the sport and by levelling the playing field with regard expenditure this will make this process easier.
Secondly, they do not want to see any existing teams exiting the sport as Honda did at the end of last season because they couldn't justify the expenditure for the reward that was provided.
Addressing each of these issues in turn there are some fundamental flaws in the arguments being put forward by the FIA not least the proposal to have a two tier championship where some teams have more technical freedom than others. With regards to the attraction of new teams the proposed reforms have worked and three new teams have been selected for inclusion on next years grid including Britain's Manor Motorsport as well as a US and Spanish entry. However, with no experience of F1 it is doubtful whether any of these teams will be competitive in their first couple of years of competing, budget cap or not, principally because of the lack of testing that these teams will have the opportunity to do. If there is a positive it is that all of these teams have contracted to use Cosworth engines and it will be a welcome return to the grid for this famous name.
Secondly, the FIA have stated that by imposing the budget cap it will prevent further teams leaving the gird, particularly in these challenging economic times. However, the dissent against this approach is being led by the leading motor manufacturing teams including Toyota, Renault, Mercedes, Fiat (Ferrari) and BMW who the FIA are afraid will leave the sport. Therefore if the FIA persist with this imposition of the new rules it could lead to a grid next season without the likes of Ferrari and McLaren, and to many that would devalue the sport and lead to fans no longer following the sport.
From an economic point of view this is not a sensible approach as potentially it will mean that the better funded teams will have to lay off staff so that they can keep within the budget caps and so this makes no sense.
In an effort to break the power of the major teams (under their umbrella body of FOTA) the FIA have adopted a divide and conquer strategy. This has led to two of the independent teams, Williams and Force India, breaking ranks with their fellow teams by saying they will enter next season whatever the rules. As these teams both currently use manufacturer engines (Toyota and Mercedes) it is likely that both of these teams had already decided to ditch these engines for next season or have alternative engine suppliers in place for next season (i.e. Cosworth) if their current engine suppliers do not compete.
The next step the FIA has taken is that they have told three of the remaining teams (Ferrari, Red Bull & Toro Rosso) that they are contracted to compete next season and beyond whatever the rules. This then leaves five teams of which only Brawn could be considered an independent entity. The Brawn team have been all-conquering so far this season and it is inconceivable that they would not want the chance to defend their title next year if they are to win it this season. The key problem they have is that Mercedes and Ferrari provided much help and support to ensure the team could get to the grid this season and so the team feel that they have to support their colleagues whilst they'd rather take the same approach as Williams and Force India.
The FIA have said to these five teams that they must submit unconditional entries by tomorrow or they will be replaced by a queue of teams who have submitted entries for next season but were not accepted in the first round of entrants last week.
My view is that there needs to be a compromise as the teams have suggested with a plan to continue to reduce costs over the coming years. It is also wrong that the wealthier teams should be penalised just because they have more money, as it is not the way that sport works - just look at football and rugby union. It is a fact of life that whilst the spectator watches for the sport itself and the competition, the teams that take to the field, the track etc. are businesses and as such should not be unfairly restricted how they spend their money and accrue their profits.
Finally, whilst the teams have suggested that they will set-up a rival series if their demands are not met, I think this is an idle threat as the logistics in setting up such a series would be almost impossible to create in such a short space of time. It would almost certainly be doomed as happened when the Indy series in the US split into rival series of Indy and Champ cars and then had to re-unite as they lost all of the economies of scale benefits that having one series brought.
I applaud the FIA for trying to encourage new teams into the sport and recognise that the best way to do this is by improving cost control, but they should not take a unilateral approach to imposing new rules as F1 will only continue with its global audiences and the money this generates with its established teams. As with any business in any industry there has to be a compromise on what can be achieved in the short-term whilst laying the foundations for long-term growth and success. Lets hope that this is all satisfactorily resolved in the coming weeks and we can concentrate on admiring the skills of the drivers and the ingenuity of the engineers behind the cars for the remainder of the year.
Early Weekend Predictions
As the second golf major of the season gets underway in a few hours and the semi-finals of the 20/20 Cricket World Cup I have some early predictions for both of these events and will then complete my predictions tomorrow for events such as the Lions test in South Africa and the British Grand Prix.
With regards to the US Open Golf I am going for Woods to win as he has been in very good form since his return from injury with six top 10 finishes already this year including winning his previous tournament. On the basis he won this tournament last year on one leg he should be even more difficult to beat on two legs this year! In addition I am going for Ian Poulter as the top European but this will be tough as Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy amongst others will all be in contention for this honour. My final prediction is that Lee Westwood will also have a good tournament and will finish in the top 10.
As for the cricket my prediction is for a South Africa versus West Indies final with South Africa prevailing in the final. My major hope here is that the two semi-finals and final can be completed without the weather intervening as it is highly possible that we could have been watching England still taking part if the rain had not come at the Oval on Monday.
In summary with the betting odds my initial predictions are:
US Open Golf
Woods to win at 2/1
Poulter to be top European at 14/1
Westwood to finish in top 10 at 7/1
ICC 20/20 Cricket World Cup
South Africa and West Indies to contest the final at 31/10
South Africa to win the tournament at 6/4.
With regards to the US Open Golf I am going for Woods to win as he has been in very good form since his return from injury with six top 10 finishes already this year including winning his previous tournament. On the basis he won this tournament last year on one leg he should be even more difficult to beat on two legs this year! In addition I am going for Ian Poulter as the top European but this will be tough as Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy amongst others will all be in contention for this honour. My final prediction is that Lee Westwood will also have a good tournament and will finish in the top 10.
As for the cricket my prediction is for a South Africa versus West Indies final with South Africa prevailing in the final. My major hope here is that the two semi-finals and final can be completed without the weather intervening as it is highly possible that we could have been watching England still taking part if the rain had not come at the Oval on Monday.
In summary with the betting odds my initial predictions are:
US Open Golf
Woods to win at 2/1
Poulter to be top European at 14/1
Westwood to finish in top 10 at 7/1
ICC 20/20 Cricket World Cup
South Africa and West Indies to contest the final at 31/10
South Africa to win the tournament at 6/4.
Monday, 15 June 2009
My Lions Test Selection
I am getting this in early before the team is announced before tomorrow's Lion's game against the Kings as that will no doubt give a very strong indication of who will take the field against South Africa on Saturday as it is unlikely any of the proposed test line-up will be risked four days before the test series starts.
Saturday's narrow win only cemented the thoughts I have had with regard to the Lion's starting line-up as no player produced the sort of performance to move above anyone I thought should be in there. This means that there are perhaps only three decisions that the management have to take and these are who will partner O'Connell in the second row (any of the other four locks could realistically be selected), the fly-half position is not guaranteed and my concern here is that this is such a key position that it could turn out to be the main weak-link in the team and finally the left-wing slot which is between Monye and Kearney in my mind.
Therefore my selection is as follows (subject to the usual proviso on injuries):
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. Wyn-Jones
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones (S)
11.Monye
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
Replacements
16.Rees
17.Jones (A)
18.Hines
19.Wallace
20.Ellis
21.O'Gara
22.Kearney
I think that team provides the best balance with a strong front-five who will be strong in the scrum but also provide the mobility needed to counter their opponents in the loose. The second-row partnership with Croft in the back-row will provide plenty of line-out options and should be able to put pressure on the Springboks second row in the line-out of Botha and Matfield.
Williams has been selected ahead of Wallace for the open-side as again I believe he provides more athleticism and a better link with the backs especially considering the Welsh trio at half-back and inside centre I have selected.
Stephen Jones just gets the nod at ten ahead of O'Gara and purely because he linked better the one time he played with Roberts and O'Driscoll outside of him. Finally, Monye gets the the wing slot ahead of Kearney because of his finishing ability but I still think he can become anonymous in games if the ball doesn't come to him and his defence may be a little suspect but has improved recently.
Saturday's narrow win only cemented the thoughts I have had with regard to the Lion's starting line-up as no player produced the sort of performance to move above anyone I thought should be in there. This means that there are perhaps only three decisions that the management have to take and these are who will partner O'Connell in the second row (any of the other four locks could realistically be selected), the fly-half position is not guaranteed and my concern here is that this is such a key position that it could turn out to be the main weak-link in the team and finally the left-wing slot which is between Monye and Kearney in my mind.
Therefore my selection is as follows (subject to the usual proviso on injuries):
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. Wyn-Jones
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones (S)
11.Monye
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
Replacements
16.Rees
17.Jones (A)
18.Hines
19.Wallace
20.Ellis
21.O'Gara
22.Kearney
I think that team provides the best balance with a strong front-five who will be strong in the scrum but also provide the mobility needed to counter their opponents in the loose. The second-row partnership with Croft in the back-row will provide plenty of line-out options and should be able to put pressure on the Springboks second row in the line-out of Botha and Matfield.
Williams has been selected ahead of Wallace for the open-side as again I believe he provides more athleticism and a better link with the backs especially considering the Welsh trio at half-back and inside centre I have selected.
Stephen Jones just gets the nod at ten ahead of O'Gara and purely because he linked better the one time he played with Roberts and O'Driscoll outside of him. Finally, Monye gets the the wing slot ahead of Kearney because of his finishing ability but I still think he can become anonymous in games if the ball doesn't come to him and his defence may be a little suspect but has improved recently.
Edge of the Seat Action
For those with a nervous disposition some of the sporting action over the weekend will not have helped the condition. As regards my predictions it turned out to be a good week with me ending up £1.50 meaning I am now only down £9.50 since I started.
It didn't start well for me though as I'd my two banker results were India to beat the West Indies in the 20/20 cricket and the All Blacks to have a relatively easy ride against France in the Rugby in New Zealand but both results went against the form book. With the rugby in particular I didn't have much joy at all as Argentina exacted revenge for their heavy defeat in Manchester last week with a tight 2 point victory over England in the second test on their home soil.
The Lions in South Africa had their usual Saturday result. The victory was not particularly straightforward and as I suspected many of those in the starting line-up will now probably form the basis of the second string team for the remainder of the tour. In fact if it hadn't been for James Hook's nerveless kick a couple of minutes from the end it could have ended as a draw. Look out later for my updated team for Saturday's Test Match against the Springboks.
One man who didn't have us on the edge of our seat was Andy Murray who cruised serenely to victory at Queen's Club and by doing, won his first tournament on grass, and perhaps more importantly re-wrote the record books by becoming the first Briton to win this tournament in 71 years. Hopefully, this is a major stepping stone towards challenging for the Wimbledon title from next week but lets not forget the two best players in the world (Nadal and Federer) were not competing here and they will provide far sterner opposition than was faced here.
The Le Mans 24 hour may not have the tension of some sports because it very rarely comes down to a last lap battle for supremacy but as the action unfolds it does produce its own brand of excitement. The winners raced over 3000 miles in the 24 hours and I had predicted that the No 9 Peugeot would be in the top 3 and they did this by winning with my prediction as winner the No 1 Audi coming third.
Moto GP did produce edge of the seat excitement though as Rossi, my prediction to win, overtook Lorenzo, the prediction for a podium, coming into the last corner and won be a few thousandths of a second reversing their qualifying performance from Saturday. It looks like at last Rossi has a team-mate who can really push him for the first time in his career and all the ingredients are in place for a really exciting season.
I can't finish this section without a comment on the 125cc race which took place earlier that day. Throughout the whole race two riders had been battling for supremacy (Simon and Iannone) and for the first time on the penultimate lap Simon pulled out a bit of a gap. However, as he crossed the finish line he assumed that had been the last lap and started celebrating even though there was no chequered flag and his pitboard still indicated one lap to go. By the time he realised his error he was in sixth place and in the ensuing lap he clawed back two positions and even achieved the same time as the third place finisher but was claissified fourth on the photo-finish. One supposes that he will never make that mistake again but he does have the slight consolation that he has assumed the leadership of the 125cc Championship from Briton Bradley Smith who could only finish eighth yesterday.
If all this excitement wasn't enough we then had to endure an England 20/20 cricket match yesterday evening with their must-win match against India. Unlike the match versus South Africa they posted a challenging score with the bat that gave the bowlers something to defend. The bowlers did just that by keeping the run-rate well below what was required and taking important wickets at key times. In addition Collingwood cleverly rotated his bowlers so that his top three pacemen would bowl the last three overs. Anderson and Broad did what was required and meant that India needed 19 runs from the last over to be bowled by Sidebottom who had been brought into the side for just such a scenario. India could only score four runs from the first three balls and it looked like England had done enough. But then the fourth ball went for a six and suddenly the tension returned with nine being needed from two balls. Thankfully, Sidebottom had read the script and only a single was taken from the fifth ball meaning that unless a no-ball or wide was bowled England would win, again Sidebottom kept his composure and England did win but not without the nerves of the England supporters becoming rather frayed.
Of course we have to go through it all again this evening as England take on the West Indies at the Oval for a semi-final spot. Of course the form-book says England should cruise to victory following the easy victories we posted against this opposition in all forms of cricket in the last few weeks but then this is also a West Indies team who have contributed to both Australia and India being eliminated from this competition in the last few days and who would bet against them doing the same to the hosts today!
Finally, as if I hadn't suffered enough I ended up watching the Nascar which again as only sport can do produced a thrilling and extraordinary finish as the two drivers who had battled for the lead in the last forty laps both ran out of fuel on the last lap and the eventual winner also crossed the line with a dead engine having run out of fuel on the last corner.
This weekend's action summed up the glory of sport which just can't be written, let alone predicted with any confidence and I for one can't wait for the next installment!
It didn't start well for me though as I'd my two banker results were India to beat the West Indies in the 20/20 cricket and the All Blacks to have a relatively easy ride against France in the Rugby in New Zealand but both results went against the form book. With the rugby in particular I didn't have much joy at all as Argentina exacted revenge for their heavy defeat in Manchester last week with a tight 2 point victory over England in the second test on their home soil.
The Lions in South Africa had their usual Saturday result. The victory was not particularly straightforward and as I suspected many of those in the starting line-up will now probably form the basis of the second string team for the remainder of the tour. In fact if it hadn't been for James Hook's nerveless kick a couple of minutes from the end it could have ended as a draw. Look out later for my updated team for Saturday's Test Match against the Springboks.
One man who didn't have us on the edge of our seat was Andy Murray who cruised serenely to victory at Queen's Club and by doing, won his first tournament on grass, and perhaps more importantly re-wrote the record books by becoming the first Briton to win this tournament in 71 years. Hopefully, this is a major stepping stone towards challenging for the Wimbledon title from next week but lets not forget the two best players in the world (Nadal and Federer) were not competing here and they will provide far sterner opposition than was faced here.
The Le Mans 24 hour may not have the tension of some sports because it very rarely comes down to a last lap battle for supremacy but as the action unfolds it does produce its own brand of excitement. The winners raced over 3000 miles in the 24 hours and I had predicted that the No 9 Peugeot would be in the top 3 and they did this by winning with my prediction as winner the No 1 Audi coming third.
Moto GP did produce edge of the seat excitement though as Rossi, my prediction to win, overtook Lorenzo, the prediction for a podium, coming into the last corner and won be a few thousandths of a second reversing their qualifying performance from Saturday. It looks like at last Rossi has a team-mate who can really push him for the first time in his career and all the ingredients are in place for a really exciting season.
I can't finish this section without a comment on the 125cc race which took place earlier that day. Throughout the whole race two riders had been battling for supremacy (Simon and Iannone) and for the first time on the penultimate lap Simon pulled out a bit of a gap. However, as he crossed the finish line he assumed that had been the last lap and started celebrating even though there was no chequered flag and his pitboard still indicated one lap to go. By the time he realised his error he was in sixth place and in the ensuing lap he clawed back two positions and even achieved the same time as the third place finisher but was claissified fourth on the photo-finish. One supposes that he will never make that mistake again but he does have the slight consolation that he has assumed the leadership of the 125cc Championship from Briton Bradley Smith who could only finish eighth yesterday.
If all this excitement wasn't enough we then had to endure an England 20/20 cricket match yesterday evening with their must-win match against India. Unlike the match versus South Africa they posted a challenging score with the bat that gave the bowlers something to defend. The bowlers did just that by keeping the run-rate well below what was required and taking important wickets at key times. In addition Collingwood cleverly rotated his bowlers so that his top three pacemen would bowl the last three overs. Anderson and Broad did what was required and meant that India needed 19 runs from the last over to be bowled by Sidebottom who had been brought into the side for just such a scenario. India could only score four runs from the first three balls and it looked like England had done enough. But then the fourth ball went for a six and suddenly the tension returned with nine being needed from two balls. Thankfully, Sidebottom had read the script and only a single was taken from the fifth ball meaning that unless a no-ball or wide was bowled England would win, again Sidebottom kept his composure and England did win but not without the nerves of the England supporters becoming rather frayed.
Of course we have to go through it all again this evening as England take on the West Indies at the Oval for a semi-final spot. Of course the form-book says England should cruise to victory following the easy victories we posted against this opposition in all forms of cricket in the last few weeks but then this is also a West Indies team who have contributed to both Australia and India being eliminated from this competition in the last few days and who would bet against them doing the same to the hosts today!
Finally, as if I hadn't suffered enough I ended up watching the Nascar which again as only sport can do produced a thrilling and extraordinary finish as the two drivers who had battled for the lead in the last forty laps both ran out of fuel on the last lap and the eventual winner also crossed the line with a dead engine having run out of fuel on the last corner.
This weekend's action summed up the glory of sport which just can't be written, let alone predicted with any confidence and I for one can't wait for the next installment!
Friday, 12 June 2009
Weekend Predictions
I can't believe it, but this is my fiftieth post on this blog. Another great weekend of sport is in prospect with the highlights including the Super 8s of the ICC 20/20 cricket, the less said about England again yesterday the better, the Le Mans 24 hour race and plenty of international rugby union.
The second phase of the 20/20 cricket started yesterday and England managed to match their woeful start to the tournament against The Netherlands by playing similarly poorly against South Africa meaning they will almost certainly have to be beat both India and the West Indies to have any chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. My predictions for the weekend are that India will beat the West Indies today but that England will match their spirited performance from last Sunday against Pakistan and beat India giving them a chance of qualification in their last match against the West Indies.
There are three rugby (union) matches that I am going to make predictions on this weekend. The first of which will take place in New Zealand when the All Blacks take on France and I am going for an All Black win by more than 13 points. The Lions are in Cape Town to take on Western Province and will probably be the last chance for the 22 Lions involved to prove themselves worthy of a test place. It looks like the strongest line-up the Lions have started with in a Saturday game and on that basis I am predicting a Lions win by between 11 and 20 points. The last game before the England players take a well-earned summer rest is in Argentina and I am predicting a tighter game than last week but an England win none the less.
The tennis at Queens Club is only at the quarter-final stage as I write this but I think that Andy Murray can live up to his seeding and win, though Andy Roddick will potentially provide stern opposition should they both reach the final.
My final predictions are in the world of motorsport. Firstly, there is the Le Mans 24 hours race and in this I am going for the No 1 Audi (including British driver McNish) to win and the No 9 Peugeot (including former F1 drivers Gene and Wurz) to make the podium. My heart said to go for the 007 Aston Martin but I don't think it will be either fast or robust enough but maybe I can be proved wrong. Like the Indy 500 and Monaco GP this one of the ten sporting events I would love to attend before I die.
It is also the next installment of the MotoGP in Barcelona this weekend. I am sticking with my practice of picking Rossi to win this race (shame I haven't adopted the same practice of picking Button in F1) and I am going for his teammate Lorenzo to finish on the podium.
In summary my predictions and current associated odds are as follows:
20/20 Cricket
India to beat West Indies at 4/7
England to beat India at 6/4
International Rugby Union
New Zealand to beat France by more than 13 points at 4/7
Lions to beat Western Province by between 11 and 20 points at 2/1
England to beat Argentina at 8/15
Tennis - Queens Tournament
Murray to win at 7/9
Le Mans 24 Hours
No 1 Audi to win at 11/8
No 9 Peugeot to podium at 13/8
MotoGP in Barcelona
Rossi to win at 2/1
Lorenzo to podium at 1/3
The second phase of the 20/20 cricket started yesterday and England managed to match their woeful start to the tournament against The Netherlands by playing similarly poorly against South Africa meaning they will almost certainly have to be beat both India and the West Indies to have any chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. My predictions for the weekend are that India will beat the West Indies today but that England will match their spirited performance from last Sunday against Pakistan and beat India giving them a chance of qualification in their last match against the West Indies.
There are three rugby (union) matches that I am going to make predictions on this weekend. The first of which will take place in New Zealand when the All Blacks take on France and I am going for an All Black win by more than 13 points. The Lions are in Cape Town to take on Western Province and will probably be the last chance for the 22 Lions involved to prove themselves worthy of a test place. It looks like the strongest line-up the Lions have started with in a Saturday game and on that basis I am predicting a Lions win by between 11 and 20 points. The last game before the England players take a well-earned summer rest is in Argentina and I am predicting a tighter game than last week but an England win none the less.
The tennis at Queens Club is only at the quarter-final stage as I write this but I think that Andy Murray can live up to his seeding and win, though Andy Roddick will potentially provide stern opposition should they both reach the final.
My final predictions are in the world of motorsport. Firstly, there is the Le Mans 24 hours race and in this I am going for the No 1 Audi (including British driver McNish) to win and the No 9 Peugeot (including former F1 drivers Gene and Wurz) to make the podium. My heart said to go for the 007 Aston Martin but I don't think it will be either fast or robust enough but maybe I can be proved wrong. Like the Indy 500 and Monaco GP this one of the ten sporting events I would love to attend before I die.
It is also the next installment of the MotoGP in Barcelona this weekend. I am sticking with my practice of picking Rossi to win this race (shame I haven't adopted the same practice of picking Button in F1) and I am going for his teammate Lorenzo to finish on the podium.
In summary my predictions and current associated odds are as follows:
20/20 Cricket
India to beat West Indies at 4/7
England to beat India at 6/4
International Rugby Union
New Zealand to beat France by more than 13 points at 4/7
Lions to beat Western Province by between 11 and 20 points at 2/1
England to beat Argentina at 8/15
Tennis - Queens Tournament
Murray to win at 7/9
Le Mans 24 Hours
No 1 Audi to win at 11/8
No 9 Peugeot to podium at 13/8
MotoGP in Barcelona
Rossi to win at 2/1
Lorenzo to podium at 1/3
Thursday, 11 June 2009
Football Silly Season
So the football season drew to a close yesterday evening and the players can all go off for a few weeks well earned rest. Not likely.
Club football has gone global with the advent of satellite television and like almost any other business it is no longer seasonal but operates twelves months of the year and it looks like this summer it will stay in the headlines without a ball being kicked in competition.
The main reason for this will be the transfer activity that kicked off in earnest when the European domestic season ended a couple of weeks ago and has hit not just the sports, but main news headlines today with the announcement that Manchester United have agreed to sell their best player (Christiano Ronaldo) to Real Madrid for the incredible and record sum of £80 million. This is on top of the £58 million paid last week for Kaka which in itself was a record. When wages are taken into account this amounts to more than £200 million for two players when there is no guarantee of success (at least on the pitch) and in the middle of a credit crunch.
Whilst this looks undoubtedly good business for both AC Milan and Manchester United is it so good for football? I ask the question because as soon as it is known that a club has money to spend on players, player valuations start to soar and it becomes a merry go-round ending with average players being bought for vastly inflated sums and demanding wages that the average supporter can't comprehend as they would never earn that sort of money in a lifetime. It also starts to become a vicious circle of the best players being at the best clubs and so the status of competition in the domestic leagues is further eroded with maybe only 2 or 3 teams with a realistic chance of winning the championship and getting the additional revenues that success on the pitch brings.
The only slight difference this year is that there is a new super-rich owner with cash to spend at Manchester City. It appears that this route (billionaire backers)is now the only way to keep the competitive element of the sport alive. Maybe now is the time to become a football agent and make some money out of the sport because surely this situation cannot continue indefinitely!
Club football has gone global with the advent of satellite television and like almost any other business it is no longer seasonal but operates twelves months of the year and it looks like this summer it will stay in the headlines without a ball being kicked in competition.
The main reason for this will be the transfer activity that kicked off in earnest when the European domestic season ended a couple of weeks ago and has hit not just the sports, but main news headlines today with the announcement that Manchester United have agreed to sell their best player (Christiano Ronaldo) to Real Madrid for the incredible and record sum of £80 million. This is on top of the £58 million paid last week for Kaka which in itself was a record. When wages are taken into account this amounts to more than £200 million for two players when there is no guarantee of success (at least on the pitch) and in the middle of a credit crunch.
Whilst this looks undoubtedly good business for both AC Milan and Manchester United is it so good for football? I ask the question because as soon as it is known that a club has money to spend on players, player valuations start to soar and it becomes a merry go-round ending with average players being bought for vastly inflated sums and demanding wages that the average supporter can't comprehend as they would never earn that sort of money in a lifetime. It also starts to become a vicious circle of the best players being at the best clubs and so the status of competition in the domestic leagues is further eroded with maybe only 2 or 3 teams with a realistic chance of winning the championship and getting the additional revenues that success on the pitch brings.
The only slight difference this year is that there is a new super-rich owner with cash to spend at Manchester City. It appears that this route (billionaire backers)is now the only way to keep the competitive element of the sport alive. Maybe now is the time to become a football agent and make some money out of the sport because surely this situation cannot continue indefinitely!
Lions Taking Shape
Following last weeks commentary on the Lions tour of South Africa the tourists have now completed two more games against Super 14 opposition. During this time two players have had to leave the tour through injury (Ferris and Halfpenny) which though a shame for the players involved should not seriously affect the tourists capability to compete to win the series.
On Saturday the Lions got off to a great start against the Cheetahs but ended the game hanging on for a two point win. However, when one looks at the team most of the backs will probably form the core of the second string once the test series starts in 10 days time, as will many of the forwards.
The side that took the field yesterday in Durban though is looking more like the starting test team (assuming no injuries) and was another professional performance and a final score of 39 - 3 represented a fair outcome based on the dominance of the Lions for the majority of the game.
From these last two games my starting line-up is now taking shape (though very similar to last weeks prediction) and I have highlighted in bold those where there should be no question mark and potentially may not even play again before the first test.
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. Wyn-Jones
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones
11.Kearney
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
From this it becomes apparent that it is the second and back rows as well as the crucial fly-half spot that still need to be sorted out. It should also be noted that whilst I have said O'Connell is a certainty this is not because I think he is necessarily one of the two best 2nd rows but more to do with the fact that he is captain - I just wonder if the management team are regretting not having picked O'Driscoll as tour captain as he was the only player prior to squad selection in April who I felt was a certain starter for the test team.
The O'Connell factor has therefore made it difficult to select his partner and I have gone for Wyn-Jones because of his line-out capabilities and because he is possibly the most mobile of the other 2nd rows on the tour but a strong performance for O'Callaghan, Shaw or Hines could still see any of them getting into the starting line-up.
The back-row would probably be sorted by now if it hadn't been for Williams' niggling injury which has allowed him only one game so far but assuming he starts on Saturday I believe he will then be in the test team over Wallace. Croft should now be secure because of his line-out strengths and athleticism but I expect Worsley and (Ryan) Jones (and even possibly Wallace) will harbour outside hopes of getting into the starting line-up on the blind-side.
I have now gone for (Stephen) Jones at ten because he functioned better with Phillips and the centres last week than O'Gara did last night but that may be down to the quality of the opposition as well as the game-plan adopted last night. Which ever way the selectors go I do see this as the weak-link in an otherwise exceptional back-line.
Once Saturday's game against Western Province has been completed, and it is by no means certain that the Lions will win then I think the Lions management will be absolutely sure who they think the fifteen will be and this should be confirmed by their selection for the next weeks mid-week game.
On Saturday the Lions got off to a great start against the Cheetahs but ended the game hanging on for a two point win. However, when one looks at the team most of the backs will probably form the core of the second string once the test series starts in 10 days time, as will many of the forwards.
The side that took the field yesterday in Durban though is looking more like the starting test team (assuming no injuries) and was another professional performance and a final score of 39 - 3 represented a fair outcome based on the dominance of the Lions for the majority of the game.
From these last two games my starting line-up is now taking shape (though very similar to last weeks prediction) and I have highlighted in bold those where there should be no question mark and potentially may not even play again before the first test.
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. Wyn-Jones
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.Jones
11.Kearney
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
From this it becomes apparent that it is the second and back rows as well as the crucial fly-half spot that still need to be sorted out. It should also be noted that whilst I have said O'Connell is a certainty this is not because I think he is necessarily one of the two best 2nd rows but more to do with the fact that he is captain - I just wonder if the management team are regretting not having picked O'Driscoll as tour captain as he was the only player prior to squad selection in April who I felt was a certain starter for the test team.
The O'Connell factor has therefore made it difficult to select his partner and I have gone for Wyn-Jones because of his line-out capabilities and because he is possibly the most mobile of the other 2nd rows on the tour but a strong performance for O'Callaghan, Shaw or Hines could still see any of them getting into the starting line-up.
The back-row would probably be sorted by now if it hadn't been for Williams' niggling injury which has allowed him only one game so far but assuming he starts on Saturday I believe he will then be in the test team over Wallace. Croft should now be secure because of his line-out strengths and athleticism but I expect Worsley and (Ryan) Jones (and even possibly Wallace) will harbour outside hopes of getting into the starting line-up on the blind-side.
I have now gone for (Stephen) Jones at ten because he functioned better with Phillips and the centres last week than O'Gara did last night but that may be down to the quality of the opposition as well as the game-plan adopted last night. Which ever way the selectors go I do see this as the weak-link in an otherwise exceptional back-line.
Once Saturday's game against Western Province has been completed, and it is by no means certain that the Lions will win then I think the Lions management will be absolutely sure who they think the fifteen will be and this should be confirmed by their selection for the next weeks mid-week game.
Last Week's Predictions
Apologies for the delay with this but was caused by the 20/20 cricket not having panned out quite as we all thought and then realised I hadn't updated my results.
Considering I made 13 predictions (if you include the Each Way bet as 2 predictions), I would only have been down by £1.50 meaning I am £11 down in total over the course of the blog.
For the rugby I correctly predicted all of the winning teams as Perpignan won the French Championship, England convincingly beat Argentina and the Lions beat the Cheetahs (albeit only just). However, the bets on England and the Lions were based on winning margins which I incorrectly predicted.
The English football team won 4-0 in Kazakhstan meaning that was correct (had gone for a win by 3 goals or more). In the Derby my each-way bet came in sixth which was no good and the prediction for the winner came second so again no joy.
Federer won the French Open but not before a very tight semi-final whilst Safina's wait for a Grand Slam title goes on as she turned out to be no match for Kuznetsova. 20/20 cricket probably provided the most drama of the weekend with England losing to Holland before thrashing Pakistan who in turn thrashed The Netherlands. Thankfully this meant England won the group as predicted but not in a manner anyone had probably foreseen this time last week! Shame about the Aussies as well, though maybe should be a little circumspect as this will now give them more preparation time for the main cricketing event of the summer - the Ashes.
Finally, betting against Button in F1 once again proved fruitless as he powered to his sixth win in seven races. Vettel did podium but Massa could only finish sixth and Hamilton was nowhere after yet another poor qualifying performance.
Look out for more predictions for this weekend's action tomorrow.
Considering I made 13 predictions (if you include the Each Way bet as 2 predictions), I would only have been down by £1.50 meaning I am £11 down in total over the course of the blog.
For the rugby I correctly predicted all of the winning teams as Perpignan won the French Championship, England convincingly beat Argentina and the Lions beat the Cheetahs (albeit only just). However, the bets on England and the Lions were based on winning margins which I incorrectly predicted.
The English football team won 4-0 in Kazakhstan meaning that was correct (had gone for a win by 3 goals or more). In the Derby my each-way bet came in sixth which was no good and the prediction for the winner came second so again no joy.
Federer won the French Open but not before a very tight semi-final whilst Safina's wait for a Grand Slam title goes on as she turned out to be no match for Kuznetsova. 20/20 cricket probably provided the most drama of the weekend with England losing to Holland before thrashing Pakistan who in turn thrashed The Netherlands. Thankfully this meant England won the group as predicted but not in a manner anyone had probably foreseen this time last week! Shame about the Aussies as well, though maybe should be a little circumspect as this will now give them more preparation time for the main cricketing event of the summer - the Ashes.
Finally, betting against Button in F1 once again proved fruitless as he powered to his sixth win in seven races. Vettel did podium but Massa could only finish sixth and Hamilton was nowhere after yet another poor qualifying performance.
Look out for more predictions for this weekend's action tomorrow.
Tuesday, 9 June 2009
The Greatest Ever?
On Sunday afternoon I was privileged enough to watch Roger Federer complete perhaps the most satisfying win of his career. By winning the French Open he completed the Grand Slam of having won all four of tennis' majors as well as equalling the record of Pete Sampras by winning 14 Grand Slams in total.
Within minutes the plaudits were pouring in for Federer because while he was already a great champion, this win has moved him to perhaps being the greatest tennis player not just of his generation but of any generation, and perhaps of any sport.
In my entry on Friday I provided some of the history of other players to have won all four Grand Slams but one thing that I failed to mention was that other than Andre Agassi all of the others to have achieved the feat only had to conquer two surfaces Grass and Clay. Federer has become only the second player therefore to have won on all three of the surfaces which Grand Slam tennis is now played on (hardcourts at the US and Australian Opens being the third surface).
Some may try and denigrate his achievement by saying that he didn't achieve the win by beating the current best clay player in the world (Rafael Nadal) but this would be ridiculous. Firstly, he can only beat the players he comes up against and he did beat the player who beat Nadal in this tournament, secondly he was severely tested throughout the tournament having to come through five set matches in both the last sixteen and semi-finals and finally in the last tournament before the French Open, Federer beat Nadal on clay in the Madrid Open. Point proved!
As Federer is still a fairly young man he now has the chance to raise the bar on the amount of majors he could win in his career to an almost impossible level in the next few years, like Lance Armstrong did with Tour de France wins, Michael Schumacher with nearly every available record in Formula 1 and Valentino Rossi is still doing in MotoGP.
I for one look forward to seeing him at Wimbledon to see if he can start that process but in the meantime he should enjoy all the adulation and praise coming his way because not only is he a great champion, but from everything else I have heard about him he is also a great person.
Within minutes the plaudits were pouring in for Federer because while he was already a great champion, this win has moved him to perhaps being the greatest tennis player not just of his generation but of any generation, and perhaps of any sport.
In my entry on Friday I provided some of the history of other players to have won all four Grand Slams but one thing that I failed to mention was that other than Andre Agassi all of the others to have achieved the feat only had to conquer two surfaces Grass and Clay. Federer has become only the second player therefore to have won on all three of the surfaces which Grand Slam tennis is now played on (hardcourts at the US and Australian Opens being the third surface).
Some may try and denigrate his achievement by saying that he didn't achieve the win by beating the current best clay player in the world (Rafael Nadal) but this would be ridiculous. Firstly, he can only beat the players he comes up against and he did beat the player who beat Nadal in this tournament, secondly he was severely tested throughout the tournament having to come through five set matches in both the last sixteen and semi-finals and finally in the last tournament before the French Open, Federer beat Nadal on clay in the Madrid Open. Point proved!
As Federer is still a fairly young man he now has the chance to raise the bar on the amount of majors he could win in his career to an almost impossible level in the next few years, like Lance Armstrong did with Tour de France wins, Michael Schumacher with nearly every available record in Formula 1 and Valentino Rossi is still doing in MotoGP.
I for one look forward to seeing him at Wimbledon to see if he can start that process but in the meantime he should enjoy all the adulation and praise coming his way because not only is he a great champion, but from everything else I have heard about him he is also a great person.
Friday, 5 June 2009
20/20, Lions, French Open Finals, The Derby.......
Wow! Is this the best weekend of sport so far this year. In putting together some predictions for the next couple of days of sporting action I have not been short of events to choose from.
I'll start with the conclusion of the second tennis Grand Slam event of the year in Paris. A couple of weeks ago you may recall that I predicted Nadal and Jankovic to be the ones to beat in the mens and ladies tournaments and true to my prediction capabilities they said farewell to the tournament earlier this week. We already know the finalists of the women's event and I am going to go with Safina to beat Kuznetsova. The men's is more interesting as they are still only at the semi-final stage and with the three most likely winners (based on this surface) already out (Nadal, Djokovic and Davydenko) I am plumping for Federer.
If he does win this will be an amazing achievement as not only will he equal Sampras' feat of winning 14 Grand Slam tournaments (a record) but he will become one of only a handful of male or female tennis players to have won each of the four Grand Slam tournaments. The men to have achieved the feat are Fred Perry & Don Budge in the 1930s and Rod Laver & Roy Emerson in the 1960s as well as Andre Agassi in the 1990s.
To conclude on this section a couple more statistics are that if Nadal can win the US Open later in the summer he will join this esteemed group and keep the current symmetry of all players achieving career Grand Slams completing the achievement in the same decade. Roy Emerson is the only (mens) player to have achieved the feat in both Men's Singles Tournaments and replicated this in the Men's Doubles.
Onto cricket now and today we have the opening match of the ICC World 20/20 tournament starting in England with the hosts taking on The Netherlands at Lords. This is only the second installment of this event but since its beginnings 20/20 has definitely caught the public imagination and has brought a significant amount of money into the game (the IPL being the biggest example). Unfortunately I don't think that England can win the tournament but I will predict them to win their group and proceed to the next phase. When it gets to the sharp end in a couple of weeks time I hope to be proved wrong but at this stage can't see past India or Australia to win overall.
Staying in England it is the highlight of the Flat Racing season tomorrow with the Derby at Epsom. Horse Racing is not a subject I possess any great knowledge, but as the Derby along with the Grand National is one of the biggest races on the calendar not just nationally but globally, it would be remiss of me not to make a prediction and so after limited research I am plumping for Fame & Glory to win and Crowded House as my each-way bet.
Football next as there is a big weekend for most of the European teams who are striving to qualify for next years World Cup in South Africa. The England team are in Kazakhstan which is slightly bemusing as this is an area of the world when I learnt geography at school was in Asia (it is further East than Baghdad) so strange that it is classified as being a "European" qualifier. Anyway, it should be a game that England take in their stride so my prediction is a win by 3 or more goals.
As I write this the second practice session of the Turkish Grand Prix is on in the background. This has been a race traditionally dominated by Ferrari and even allowing for Button and Brawn's domination at the first races of the season I am still reluctant to predict a Button win and am going for Massa to take Ferrari's first win of the season with Vettel on the podium (even allowing for just seeing him desert his car in practice after 4 laps) and Hamilton to make the top six.
My final predictions this weekend are all rugby related. To start with I am going to stick with last weeks forecast of Perpignan to win the French Championship over Clermont Auvergne and take the title for the first time in 54 years. Secondly, England are taking on Argentina at Old Trafford and though it is not a full strength England team (Lions call-ups, injuries etc.) I think they will have enough to win in England and am plumping for a win by 12 points or less.
In Bloemfontein the Lions have their third match of the tour and starting positions have been found for all of the squad yet to start a game (bar Gordon D'Arcy who only arrived on Thursday but is on the bench). Personally, I don't think the team is as strong as the one that played on Wednesday, and in addition the Cheetahs will no doubt provide sterner opposition than the Golden Lions. On that basis whilst still predicting a convincing Lions win I am going for a win between 21 and 25 points.
Hopefully, I haven't bored you to death with the above and the summary is as follows:
French Open Tennis
Safina to win Womens at 5/11
Federer to win Mens at 7/10
20/20 Cricket
England to win group at Evens
The Derby
Fame & Glory to win at 4/1
Crowded House Each Way at 20/1
World Cup Qualifying Football
England to beat Kazakhstan by 3 or more goals at 6/4
Turkish Grand Prix
Massa to win at 6/1
Vettel to podium at 6/5
Hamilton top six at 5/4
Rugby Union
Perpignan to beat Clermont Auvergne at 15/8
England to beat Argentina by 12 points or less at 11/10
Lions to beat the Cheetahs by between 21 and 25 points at 6/1
I'll start with the conclusion of the second tennis Grand Slam event of the year in Paris. A couple of weeks ago you may recall that I predicted Nadal and Jankovic to be the ones to beat in the mens and ladies tournaments and true to my prediction capabilities they said farewell to the tournament earlier this week. We already know the finalists of the women's event and I am going to go with Safina to beat Kuznetsova. The men's is more interesting as they are still only at the semi-final stage and with the three most likely winners (based on this surface) already out (Nadal, Djokovic and Davydenko) I am plumping for Federer.
If he does win this will be an amazing achievement as not only will he equal Sampras' feat of winning 14 Grand Slam tournaments (a record) but he will become one of only a handful of male or female tennis players to have won each of the four Grand Slam tournaments. The men to have achieved the feat are Fred Perry & Don Budge in the 1930s and Rod Laver & Roy Emerson in the 1960s as well as Andre Agassi in the 1990s.
To conclude on this section a couple more statistics are that if Nadal can win the US Open later in the summer he will join this esteemed group and keep the current symmetry of all players achieving career Grand Slams completing the achievement in the same decade. Roy Emerson is the only (mens) player to have achieved the feat in both Men's Singles Tournaments and replicated this in the Men's Doubles.
Onto cricket now and today we have the opening match of the ICC World 20/20 tournament starting in England with the hosts taking on The Netherlands at Lords. This is only the second installment of this event but since its beginnings 20/20 has definitely caught the public imagination and has brought a significant amount of money into the game (the IPL being the biggest example). Unfortunately I don't think that England can win the tournament but I will predict them to win their group and proceed to the next phase. When it gets to the sharp end in a couple of weeks time I hope to be proved wrong but at this stage can't see past India or Australia to win overall.
Staying in England it is the highlight of the Flat Racing season tomorrow with the Derby at Epsom. Horse Racing is not a subject I possess any great knowledge, but as the Derby along with the Grand National is one of the biggest races on the calendar not just nationally but globally, it would be remiss of me not to make a prediction and so after limited research I am plumping for Fame & Glory to win and Crowded House as my each-way bet.
Football next as there is a big weekend for most of the European teams who are striving to qualify for next years World Cup in South Africa. The England team are in Kazakhstan which is slightly bemusing as this is an area of the world when I learnt geography at school was in Asia (it is further East than Baghdad) so strange that it is classified as being a "European" qualifier. Anyway, it should be a game that England take in their stride so my prediction is a win by 3 or more goals.
As I write this the second practice session of the Turkish Grand Prix is on in the background. This has been a race traditionally dominated by Ferrari and even allowing for Button and Brawn's domination at the first races of the season I am still reluctant to predict a Button win and am going for Massa to take Ferrari's first win of the season with Vettel on the podium (even allowing for just seeing him desert his car in practice after 4 laps) and Hamilton to make the top six.
My final predictions this weekend are all rugby related. To start with I am going to stick with last weeks forecast of Perpignan to win the French Championship over Clermont Auvergne and take the title for the first time in 54 years. Secondly, England are taking on Argentina at Old Trafford and though it is not a full strength England team (Lions call-ups, injuries etc.) I think they will have enough to win in England and am plumping for a win by 12 points or less.
In Bloemfontein the Lions have their third match of the tour and starting positions have been found for all of the squad yet to start a game (bar Gordon D'Arcy who only arrived on Thursday but is on the bench). Personally, I don't think the team is as strong as the one that played on Wednesday, and in addition the Cheetahs will no doubt provide sterner opposition than the Golden Lions. On that basis whilst still predicting a convincing Lions win I am going for a win between 21 and 25 points.
Hopefully, I haven't bored you to death with the above and the summary is as follows:
French Open Tennis
Safina to win Womens at 5/11
Federer to win Mens at 7/10
20/20 Cricket
England to win group at Evens
The Derby
Fame & Glory to win at 4/1
Crowded House Each Way at 20/1
World Cup Qualifying Football
England to beat Kazakhstan by 3 or more goals at 6/4
Turkish Grand Prix
Massa to win at 6/1
Vettel to podium at 6/5
Hamilton top six at 5/4
Rugby Union
Perpignan to beat Clermont Auvergne at 15/8
England to beat Argentina by 12 points or less at 11/10
Lions to beat the Cheetahs by between 21 and 25 points at 6/1
Thursday, 4 June 2009
Lions Roar at Ellis Park
It took a couple of games but last night at Ellis Park in Johannesburg the Lions bared their teeth in a manner that had been expected last weekend against the invitational Royal XV. Of course the Golden Lions struggled in the Super 14 but would still have expected to have put up a better effort than they did, and the Lions shouldn't get carried away but other than conceding one try it was an excellent performance both in defence and attack.
In a months time when the Lions return to the same venue there is a very strong possibility they could be playing the decisive game of the tour that defines whether or not the Lions or the World Champions end up winning the test series.
After the rather disappointing performance on Saturday I was thinking I may have to write about how the Barbarians could put together a team of (predominantly) old men and still beat an international team on its own turf with little preparation time but that the supposed cream of British and Irish rugby appeared to have forgotten the basics of rugby and looked nothing like a team that could seriously believe they would be able to beat the World Champions on their own soil. Thankfully, Saturday's game is now just a bad memory and I am now looking forward to the next installment of the tour against another Super 14 side - The Cheetahs - on Saturday.
Based on the first two performances my current selection for the first test in just over two weeks time will be as follows:
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. O'Callaghan
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.O'Gara
11.Kearney
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
I will no doubt change my opinions as the tour progresses and there may be injuries etc. but I wouldn't be surprised if 10 of these players didn't make the starting line-up as it currently stands. Of course I will refer back to this in future posts to see how accurate this prediction might be.
In a months time when the Lions return to the same venue there is a very strong possibility they could be playing the decisive game of the tour that defines whether or not the Lions or the World Champions end up winning the test series.
After the rather disappointing performance on Saturday I was thinking I may have to write about how the Barbarians could put together a team of (predominantly) old men and still beat an international team on its own turf with little preparation time but that the supposed cream of British and Irish rugby appeared to have forgotten the basics of rugby and looked nothing like a team that could seriously believe they would be able to beat the World Champions on their own soil. Thankfully, Saturday's game is now just a bad memory and I am now looking forward to the next installment of the tour against another Super 14 side - The Cheetahs - on Saturday.
Based on the first two performances my current selection for the first test in just over two weeks time will be as follows:
1. Jenkins
2. Mears
3. Vickery
4. O'Callaghan
5. O'Connell
6. Croft
7. Williams
8. Heaslip
9. Phillips
10.O'Gara
11.Kearney
12.Roberts
13.O'Driscoll
14.Bowe
15.Byrne
I will no doubt change my opinions as the tour progresses and there may be injuries etc. but I wouldn't be surprised if 10 of these players didn't make the starting line-up as it currently stands. Of course I will refer back to this in future posts to see how accurate this prediction might be.
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
Football Season Over - Well Not Yet
The curtain came down on the English and Scottish football seasons on Saturday with their respective cup finals but of course football continues to dominate the sporting headlines as the transfer window has now opened as well as the little matter of World Cup qualifying matches that are coming up in the next few days.
In England the usual suspects of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal dominated the league and will all be amongst the favourites for next season's European Champions League. Whilst this domination by the big four clubs is good for them as businesses I am not sure that it is so good for football in England going forward because whilst attendance figures have remained strong this season even despite the economic downturn, people will not continue indefinitely paying high prices to watch a team whose realistic ambition is to be best of the rest or at worse to avoid relegation.
The problem is that of an economic oligopoly where the continued success of the same teams means that they have more resources to further strengthen their teams and distancing themselves even further from the competition. As far as I am aware there has never been this sort of dominance by a handful of teams in football before (excluding the Glasgow Celtic and Rangers teams) but having said that I am not sure how it can be broken without a radical redistribution of the wealth of these teams which is almost impossible because of the way they are structured as businesses.
What concerns me most though, is that none of these teams are British owned (Arsenal is debatable), none of them have English managers and each season the number of English players representing these teams seems to diminish with many of those English players that are playing regularly being in the second half of their careers. This worries me because whilst all of the teams argue they have excellent academies, very few of these players seem to break into the first team squad and when they do more often than not they are not England qualified.
Why is this important? I think it is important because we are bidding to host the 2018 World Cup and as hosts we would want to win it but when I look at the English players currently representing these four teams on a regular basis, only Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) and Theo Walcott (Arsenal) would still likely be around in nine years time. What exacerbates this problem is that our young players often don't travel well and though the premiership is full of non-English players, other than David Beckham we don't have any players in the top teams in Europe. Without the experience of playing at the highest level how can we expect England to produce competitive teams at the major football championships.
Finally, we also have an Italian as manager of the national team and if we look at the top ten teams last season in the premiership only Fulham and Tottenham can boast English managers (Roy Hodgson and Harry Redknapp respectively) and both of them will be in their seventies by 2018.
This issue needs to be addressed sooner, rather than later because otherwise our national game will start to lose our support and if we do win the right to host the 2018 World Cup it could turn into a white elephant as we won't have team capable of winning it to support.
In England the usual suspects of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal dominated the league and will all be amongst the favourites for next season's European Champions League. Whilst this domination by the big four clubs is good for them as businesses I am not sure that it is so good for football in England going forward because whilst attendance figures have remained strong this season even despite the economic downturn, people will not continue indefinitely paying high prices to watch a team whose realistic ambition is to be best of the rest or at worse to avoid relegation.
The problem is that of an economic oligopoly where the continued success of the same teams means that they have more resources to further strengthen their teams and distancing themselves even further from the competition. As far as I am aware there has never been this sort of dominance by a handful of teams in football before (excluding the Glasgow Celtic and Rangers teams) but having said that I am not sure how it can be broken without a radical redistribution of the wealth of these teams which is almost impossible because of the way they are structured as businesses.
What concerns me most though, is that none of these teams are British owned (Arsenal is debatable), none of them have English managers and each season the number of English players representing these teams seems to diminish with many of those English players that are playing regularly being in the second half of their careers. This worries me because whilst all of the teams argue they have excellent academies, very few of these players seem to break into the first team squad and when they do more often than not they are not England qualified.
Why is this important? I think it is important because we are bidding to host the 2018 World Cup and as hosts we would want to win it but when I look at the English players currently representing these four teams on a regular basis, only Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) and Theo Walcott (Arsenal) would still likely be around in nine years time. What exacerbates this problem is that our young players often don't travel well and though the premiership is full of non-English players, other than David Beckham we don't have any players in the top teams in Europe. Without the experience of playing at the highest level how can we expect England to produce competitive teams at the major football championships.
Finally, we also have an Italian as manager of the national team and if we look at the top ten teams last season in the premiership only Fulham and Tottenham can boast English managers (Roy Hodgson and Harry Redknapp respectively) and both of them will be in their seventies by 2018.
This issue needs to be addressed sooner, rather than later because otherwise our national game will start to lose our support and if we do win the right to host the 2018 World Cup it could turn into a white elephant as we won't have team capable of winning it to support.
Monday, 1 June 2009
Champions Toppled
Another great weekend of sport which has yet again proved that invincibility in sport is a fallacy. The biggest shock was undoubtedly Nadal losing in the last 16 of the French Open to a guy who he had comprehensively thrashed only a month ago on the same surface. This is the first time that Nadal has ever lost at the French Open and as well as opening up the tournament to a new winner for the first time in four years means that Nadal has only equalled and not beaten Bjorn Borg's record of four consecutive French Open wins and that he cannot complete the Grand Slam of winning all four majors in the same year which until yesterday had looked a very real possibility. Come on Murray!
The other great champion dethroned at the weekend was Valentino Rossi who until yesterday had dominated the Italian MotoGP for the previous seven years but could only finish third yesterday meaning he is still two tantalising wins short of 100 wins in GP Motorcycling. It is possible that if he had taken a more aggressive strategy in moving to dry tyres earlier he could have won, but no doubt his conservatism was based on his failure two weeks earlier when he had gone for the bold strategy at Le Mans and ended up last - the worst finishing result of his career.
Whilst on the subject of Motorcycling it should be noted that Englishman Bradley Smith won his second consecutive 125cc race at Mugello, this time from pole position, and he now sits proud at the top of the standings in this category. Do we now have a new Barry Sheen in the making?
In addition to what was happening in France and Italy we had the FA and Scottish Cup finals which both played out as predicted with both Chelsea and Rangers taking the respective trophies.
There was plenty of rugby going on as well and the undoubted highlight was the Bulls thrashing the Chiefs in the Super 14 final. To score 60 points in any game of rugby is an astounding achievement but to do it in a final is almost beyond belief. Continuing the South African theme the Lions stuttered and spluttered to a win over the Royal XV and until the last few minutes there was a real chance of an upset which is worrying considering this was probably the easiest match of the tour. My final prediction was that Perpignan would beat Stade Francais in the semi-finals of the French Championship which they duly achieved and means they are still on course for their first outright title in 54 years.
Overall I correctly predicted four out of seven results (or five out of eight if you include my non-sporting prediction of Diversity to win Britain's Got Talent), which is an improvement on previous weeks but still left me down by 80p with the bookies and means I am approximately £9.50 down since these predictions started!
The other great champion dethroned at the weekend was Valentino Rossi who until yesterday had dominated the Italian MotoGP for the previous seven years but could only finish third yesterday meaning he is still two tantalising wins short of 100 wins in GP Motorcycling. It is possible that if he had taken a more aggressive strategy in moving to dry tyres earlier he could have won, but no doubt his conservatism was based on his failure two weeks earlier when he had gone for the bold strategy at Le Mans and ended up last - the worst finishing result of his career.
Whilst on the subject of Motorcycling it should be noted that Englishman Bradley Smith won his second consecutive 125cc race at Mugello, this time from pole position, and he now sits proud at the top of the standings in this category. Do we now have a new Barry Sheen in the making?
In addition to what was happening in France and Italy we had the FA and Scottish Cup finals which both played out as predicted with both Chelsea and Rangers taking the respective trophies.
There was plenty of rugby going on as well and the undoubted highlight was the Bulls thrashing the Chiefs in the Super 14 final. To score 60 points in any game of rugby is an astounding achievement but to do it in a final is almost beyond belief. Continuing the South African theme the Lions stuttered and spluttered to a win over the Royal XV and until the last few minutes there was a real chance of an upset which is worrying considering this was probably the easiest match of the tour. My final prediction was that Perpignan would beat Stade Francais in the semi-finals of the French Championship which they duly achieved and means they are still on course for their first outright title in 54 years.
Overall I correctly predicted four out of seven results (or five out of eight if you include my non-sporting prediction of Diversity to win Britain's Got Talent), which is an improvement on previous weeks but still left me down by 80p with the bookies and means I am approximately £9.50 down since these predictions started!
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