Friday, 24 July 2009

It's Friday and Time for Predictions

The biggest event this weekend will be the climax of the Tour de France with the penultimate stage up to the summit of Mont Ventoux and the final day on the Champs Elysees. In addition there is the Hungarian Grand Prix, the last before their summer break, the British Moto GP, cricket's Friends Provident Trophy Final at Lords, the London Grand Prix athletics at Crystal Palace and not forgetting the second match in rugby union's tri-nations.

It looks like barring injury that all of the jersey classifications in the tour have been settled with only the remaining podium positions to be finalised. Contador has ridden superbly and deserves his second tour win. However, the five riders behind him are fairly close but I think Andy Schleck will hold on to second place and do so in style by winning stage 20 up to Ventoux. In third and fourth are perhaps the biggest surprises with the 37 year old Armstrong eleven seconds ahead of Briton Bradley Wiggins. It would be great to see Armstrong hold on to the final podium place as he has shown that his comeback wasn't just a publicity stunt but that he can compete, having said that I'd be delighted to see a Brit on the podium for the first time ever in a Tour de France and let Raymond Poulidor hold on to his record of eight podium finishes in the race.

On Sunday the riders will parade around Paris to celebrate completing one of sports greatest challenges. There is still a stage to race for though and I have no hesitation in picking Mark Cavendish who has won every stage he has competed for in this year's race. If he were to win this would make it six in total and ten in two Tours de France - how many could he have won if hadn't withdrawn at the halfway stage last year!

For motorsport fans the weekend doesn't get much better, as there is the Hungarian Grand Prix and the Moto GP for the last time at Donnington on Sunday. In F1 the Brawns should be back at the sharp end and the McLaren's have looked particularly racy in practice today with their new modifications. Interestingly before this season both Button of Brawn and Kovalainen of McLaren had only won one Grand Prix in their careers, both having achieved that success in Hungary. These two drivers could triumph again this weekend but I am going for Button to win his seventh race of the season and Hamilton to get onto the podium.

In the Moto GP the Yamahas have been the bikes to beat this season and particularly in the last few races. Unsurprisingly, I am going for a Rossi win and for Stoner's Ducati to make the podium. Like F1 there are still four riders very much in with a chance of winning the title this season and I think this championship has every chance of going to the last race of the season whereas in F1 if Button can win on Sunday he might just be able to open an unassailable gap to his pursuers.

There are two major sporting events taking place in London this weekend. The first which starts this evening is the London Grand Prix athletics where Usain Bolt will be running in the 100 metres. I'd have to be mad to bet against him winning, so I won't, but because of this wonderful British summer weather we have I don't think he will threaten his world record this weekend and I'm predicting him to win but with a finishing time of 9.80 seconds or greater.

At Lords tomorrow is the first of English cricket's domestic finals, The Friends Provident limited overs final between Sussex and Hampshire. If Hampshire had Pietersen fit and if Warne was still playing it would have been an easy choice for me but without these two great players I am going for a Sussex win.

My final prediction this weekend takes us to South Africa where the Springboks open their tri-nations tournament against the All Blacks. Many of these matches go with home advantage and the All Blacks have not looked as good this year as they have in the past so I'm going for a South Africa win but it will be tight.

In summary my predictions are:

Tour de France

To win Saturday's stage to Mont Ventoux - Andy Schleck at 19/4
To win the final stage in Paris - Cavendish at 8/11

Hungarian Grand Prix

Button to win at 11/4
Hamilton to podium at 15/8

British Moto GP

Rossi to win at 5/4
Stoner to podium at 4/5

London Grand Prix Athletics

Bolt to win in a time of 9.80 seconds or greater at 7/4

Cricket's Friends Provident Trophy

Sussex to win at 10/11

Tri-Nations Rugby

South Africa to beat New Zealand at 4/7

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